Is China's rise overrated?

[Eoin247]

Very interesting article i came across on CNN.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/01/17/frum.china.rise/index.html?hpt=T1

It makes you think if China really is going to become the number one super power as everybody says it is in this century.

Here are a few quotes from the article >


-- In the fall of 2008, some 300,000 Chinese children were poisoned when a Chinese dairy adulterated its infant formula with melamine in order to dupe testing machines into recording a higher protein content.
-- Perhaps the most impressive building in Beijing is the Chinese Central TV tower designed by the Dutch architect Rem Koolhaas. Formally opened in January 2008, the tower remains unoccupied because of fears about its soundness.
-- The price of cooking oil rose 27% in China last year, reports the Wall Street Journal. China is gripped by price inflation that has triggered a wave of strikes and protests across the country. You might expect China to suppress the inflation by tightening the supply of money. A tighter monetary policy, however, would cause the Chinese currency to rise, undercutting China's ability to export to the U.S.
-- In August 2009, three Chinese died of the same plague that caused the Black Death in Europe. For an advancing country, China is strangely vulnerable to infectious diseases, including the H5N1 variant of avian flu that has killed some 300 people.
-- China's population is rapidly aging as Chinese families have fewer children. China's working-age population will not increase between now and 2030. But the number of people 65 or older will triple.

In my opinion i'd say China will continue to grow and become stronger for quite some time, however i don't think it will get to the No.1 spot anytime soon as it has some very big problems catching up with it.

Thoughts?

[Fez]

-- In the fall of 2008, some 300,000 Chinese children were poisoned when a Chinese dairy adulterated its infant formula with melamine in order to dupe testing machines into recording a higher protein content.

China has a population of over a billion, I doubt 300,00 Children matter to their progression as a superpower. Yeah, it's a lot of kids who'll grow up to be the workforce but honestly there are millions and millions more kids.


-- Perhaps the most impressive building in Beijing is the Chinese Central TV tower designed by the Dutch architect Rem Koolhaas. Formally opened in January 2008, the tower remains unoccupied because of fears about its soundness.

It was constructed for the Beijing Olympics, it's served its purpose as a work of architecture and I know many of my friends studying Art in my school who've taken a look at the buildings especially built for Olympics. I think, if my memory is correct, Koolhaas is notorious for making beautiful but impractical works of architecture.


-- The price of cooking oil rose 27% in China last year, reports the Wall Street Journal. China is gripped by price inflation that has triggered a wave of strikes and protests across the country. You might expect China to suppress the inflation by tightening the supply of money. A tighter monetary policy, however, would cause the Chinese currency to rise, undercutting China's ability to export to the U.S.

Wrong. Cooking oil is actually less prominently used in China as it is mostly exported (given it's an industry product). The countries across Asia have the most fertile soil and so keep Vegetable Oil to themselves to use.


-- In August 2009, three Chinese died of the same plague that caused the Black Death in Europe. For an advancing country, China is strangely vulnerable to infectious diseases, including the H5N1 variant of avian flu that has killed some 300 people.

Medical over-reactions really. The Chinese government handled the SARS 'epidemic' (I say epidemic when it was an enclosed case of illnesses) perfectly. The WHO took in the regulations they used and other measurements into a worldwide recommendations. China are also at the forefront, along with the US, on medical research.


-- China's population is rapidly aging as Chinese families have fewer children. China's working-age population will not increase between now and 2030. But the number of people 65 or older will triple.

Well it's expected given the massive boom of population, but I doubt it will steadily decrease or even increase. It's gotten to the point where it'll level out and stay stable.

Personally I think in ten, twenty years time we'll have another world superpower on the stage. It's odd that we here in Britain promote freedom and privacy yet we actually have more CCTV cameras (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205607/Shock-figures-reveal-Britain-CCTV-camera-14-people--China.html) than China itself which is said to be a massive Communist state full of censorship and lack of freedom rights.

[Jacob]

Lol at your comment on CCTV's ;)

It's going to need time to progress to that stage (number one) because at the moment looking at the current world you just can't see it. All I see is America. Hopefully they will get to the point of being number one soon, go China!

[Ajthedragon]

Never looked at it like this. Although the information looks realistic and reliable. But having said that, 1 in 5 people are Chinese? It is bound to happen eventually.

[Conservative,]

It will happen but not as quick as most say.

They have huge problems (starvation, poor pay, diseases etc.) to overcome first. There is no doubt that their industry is strong enough, that they have enough people nor that they have a strong military - but for a huge developing country it does have some really basic issues that need sorting out first. My guess is at least another 100 years.

[dbgtz]

They take the tax and give little to the public, along with taking foreign aid like the selfish chinese government are. I don't think there will be a problem if they spent a lot of their money on wmds and stuff.

[Eoin247]

Lol at your comment on CCTV's ;)

It's going to need time to progress to that stage (number one) because at the moment looking at the current world you just can't see it. All I see is America. Hopefully they will get to the point of being number one soon, go China!

I wouldn't say this now. China is investing everywhere in the world, even in much more places than the west. For example China has no moral problem dealing with corrupt African dictatorships and reaping the rewards, whilst the west just cuts themselves off from these African countries.


China has a population of over a billion, I doubt 300,00 Children matter to their progression as a superpower. Yeah, it's a lot of kids who'll grow up to be the workforce but honestly there are millions and millions more kids.


Actualy this can cause many problems, i'll point out one of them in a sec but first,

These 300,000 children were all under 3 years of age thats a huge number and percentage (and a problem) for that age group.

The main thing Chinese government does not want is major discontent in the population. In history again and again it has been shown that once discontent reaches a certain level, there's revolution. If Chinese people see that the government, which they didn't choose to be there, can't even protect their children properly then this raises discontent. Multiple scenarios like this could possibly bring down the government and the country with it.


Wrong. Cooking oil is actually less prominently used in China as it is mostly exported (given it's an industry product). The countries across Asia have the most fertile soil and so keep Vegetable Oil to themselves to use.

I'm confused as to what you're saying wrong to, China IS gripped by price inflation, and there have been strikes/protests to prove that the population think this a problem.


Medical over-reactions really. The Chinese government handled the SARS 'epidemic' (I say epidemic when it was an enclosed case of illnesses) perfectly. The WHO took in the regulations they used and other measurements into a worldwide recommendations. China are also at the forefront, along with the US, on medical research.



I think the point he was trying to make is that china's very vulnerable to diseases that most western countries don't have a problem with as they've dealt with them.


Well it's expected given the massive boom of population, but I doubt it will steadily decrease or even increase. It's gotten to the point where it'll level out and stay stable.





China's working-age population will not increase between now and 2030. But the number of people 65 or older will triple.


Well that's a sure sign of decrease, also a sign of more old people living off the same amount of working people making further problems for the economy (Although i admit most western countries have a far bigger problem at the moment with this).


It's odd that we here in Britain promote freedom and privacy yet we actually have more CCTV cameras (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1205607/Shock-figures-reveal-Britain-CCTV-camera-14-people--China.html) than China itself which is said to be a massive Communist state full of censorship and lack of freedom rights.

I don't really know much about this cctv thing in the UK, but the government surely don't operate the vast majority of them so you can't really compare to China. Chinese cencorship of western ideas/culture/media etc , is absolutely colosol.


which is said to be a massive Communist state full of censorship and lack of freedom rights.

It is, however it seems to be improving slightly on that recently from what i've read.

[alexxxxx]

china will grow but it is nowhere near as developed as europe or the united states. the rural areas are poor poor poor.

[RedStratocas]

their one-child policy is going to have deep implications for the future demographics of the country. In 20-30 years (when everyone says china is gonna take over) a good half of their population is going to be over the age of 50. just keeping elders alive is going to take a huge toll on their work and energy force.

id go on, but basically i can't see such a controlling government that hinders a lot of innovation, progression, and knowledge becoming the lead economy in a modern world. not to mention their centralized government is only strong enough for part of the country. go to western china, and a lot of the people there don't even consider themselves chinese.

[-:Undertaker:-]

If the western world continues as it does with socialist-style economic policies, and if Asia continues its path down a free market road then the rise of China and Asia in general (BRIC) will occur and fast. The United States at the moment finds itself in the position of the British Empire in the 1930s-1940s - a rising booming power closely but behind the U.K. who remain number one but with poor economic performance. All it took for the Britsh Empire to effectively become bankrupt was a large scale war, even a medium sized war could have done the job - the U.S. seized world war two as a chance to take the crown from Britain - if the U.S. were to become involved in say a battle with China over Taiwan, or a medium sized conflict in Korea then although the U.S. would be likely to win the war, China in time would take the crown from a already near-bankrupt and increasingly uncompetitive country.

China will have its ups and downs, sure. But the way it is going, money is shifting from the west eastwards.