Barnsley by-election

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.indhome.com/2011/02/ukip-9-11-barnsley/

http://survation.com/2011/02/barnsley-central-by-election-survey-for-the-mail-on-sunday/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/mar/02/barnsley-central-byelection-major-headache


http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2011/3/2/1299064492460/-Ed-Miliband-and-Labour-c-007.jpg
Labour Leader Ed Miliband (right) and Labour candidate Dan Jarvis (left) in Barnsley


The Barnsley by-election which is due to be held tommmorow (3rd) has Labour in a strong first place despite its former MP being sentenced for fiddling expenses, but interesting polling results concerning the Conservatives/Liberal Democrats along with UKIP. The Liberal Democrat vote has simply collapsed in an area is fairs rather well in, not great but not bad. UKIP on the other hand even stands a chance of coming second ahead of the Conservatives, if you take the raw data excluding predicting that people will vote for the parties they did in 2010.

Here are the Barnsley polling results *see published results in link*;

Labour Party 66%
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 11%
Conservative Party 11%
Others 6%
British National Party (BNP) 5%
Liberal Democrats 2%


http://www.iaza.com/work/110303C/iaza14287242856200.bmp
UKIP Leader Nigel Farage (right) and UKIP candidate Jane Collins (left) in Barnsley



Well you'd better check your stats then! The proportion of UKIP voters that is working class is far higher than the three main parties; I can't recall exactly but I believe it is:

UKIP
C2 - 27%
DE - 27%
Other voters:
C2 - 20%
DE - 20%

http://leicester.academia.edu/RichardWhitaker/Papers/446450/The_UK_Independence_Party_Analysing_its_candidates _and_supporters this paper has the details.

Big shifts in voting it appears, Barnsley is a typical Labour safe seat yet the statistics show the working class are switching to UKIP which is usually seen (as the Guardian describes it) as the middle class party yet statistics show it has more of a working class vote than the main parties do. The Liberal Democrats on the other hand look simply doomed, even I didn't expect them to reach 2%/6% so soon. The chances are that they will most likely have to merge with the un-conservative Conservatives for the next election to save them from electoral oblivion, leaving the position of third party up for grabs.

Thoughts? who are you planning to vote in the May local elections?

[Conservative,]

Oo interesting. Get bloody labour out of all seats possible :l

In the local elections obviously I can't vote but I'm rooting for obviously Conservatives and UKIP. They're the only parties I support most or all of their ideas.

Unfortunately I have a nasty feeling labour will do too well out of it. But if UKIP can get in and grab a few seats I'll be happier.

Oo, there is a guy from the Monster Raving Loony Party standing. I'd be tempted to vote for him.

[Chippiewill]

Are you seriously making a thread about UKIP having 11% in the polls. Christ you need to get out more it's hardly 'news' is it, I expect if someone says UKIP you jump up instantly, like a trained dog. This is the most unworthy thread I've ever seen in this forum if I'm going to be quite honest.

The worrying bit is that 5% of their population support BNP.. god knows if they know what BNP are actually like.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Are you seriously making a thread about UKIP having 11% in the polls. Christ you need to get out more it's hardly 'news' is it, I expect if someone says UKIP you jump up instantly, like a trained dog. This is the most unworthy thread I've ever seen in this forum if I'm going to be quite honest.

The worrying bit is that 5% of their population support BNP.. god knows if they know what BNP are actually like.

I always post about by-elections, local elections and national elections. (prove me wrong if you disagree with that notion)

I mentioned equally more or less the demise of the Liberal Democrats, the fact Labour are on top in a safe seat is not news - the other parts are. This thread is plainly about party politics and the upcoming May election, introduced by the by-election polls of which is due in tommorow.

Both the Guardian, the Daily Mail and myself have focused around the aspect of the Lib Dem vote collapsing against minority parties.

[The Don]

Are you seriously making a thread about UKIP having 11% in the polls. Christ you need to get out more it's hardly 'news' is it, I expect if someone says UKIP you jump up instantly, like a trained dog. This is the most unworthy thread I've ever seen in this forum if I'm going to be quite honest.

The worrying bit is that 5% of their population support BNP.. god knows if they know what BNP are actually like.

No need to be so rude to dan. A forum is a place to discuss things, this is the correct section and I guess it is interesting to some members, that's why there is a sub forum for these types of threads. Don't read the thread if you aren't interested.

[jam666]

In May please bring on:

* Local elections
* Mayoral elections
* AV vote

Should be very fun voting :), I hope I get heckled by a labour supporter (My mother got heckled by a lib dem back in the GE last year) as I will quite frankly put them in their place. (Im so pleased I live in one of the few conservative held wards in the council :P)

Such a shame there are not any plans for an EU referendum, but it will come in due course when there is a much more prominent thatcherite as party leader in the future (me maybe? :P)

[Conservative,]

In May please bring on:

* Local elections
* Mayoral elections
* AV vote

Should be very fun voting :), I hope I get heckled by a labour supporter (My mother got heckled by a lib dem back in the GE last year) as I will quite frankly put them in their place. (Im so pleased I live in one of the few conservative held wards in the council :P)

Such a shame there are not any plans for an EU referendum, but it will come in due course when there is a much more prominent thatcherite as party leader in the future (me maybe? :P)

AV vote is a no-no for me. It just over complicates the system.

And na, I'll be party leader, but I think some of my views are too right wing. Lol.

[jam666]

I forgot to mention I am firmly AGAINST AV and would love for nothing better than members of the public to hit the last nail in the coffin for Clegg and his yellow friends.

[Conservative,]

I forgot to mention I am firmly AGAINST AV and would love for nothing better than members of the public to hit the last nail in the coffin for Clegg and his yellow friends.

Oh I thought you were for it lol. Good, I have an ally on this forum now ^_^ lol.

[Inseriousity.]

lolol if the BNP is beating you then you know you're in trouble.

[Jordy]

Labour took 60.8% of the vote, UKIP's Jane Collins 12.19%, the Conservatives' James Hockney 8.25%, the BNP's Enis Dalton 6.04%, Independent Tony Devoy 5.23% and the Liberal Democrats' Dominic Carman 4.18%.

Not a bad result at all for Labour and UKIP it seems, polls were fairly accurate.

[Conservative,]

Ouch for Lib Dems. I'm not surprised Labour won, but it's so stupid they vote for the party whose previous candidate for them was arrested and accused of cheating? LOL.

Well done UKIP to be fair.

[Catzsy]

Ouch for Lib Dems. I'm not surprised Labour won, but it's so stupid they vote for the party whose previous candidate for them was arrested and accused of cheating? LOL.

Well done UKIP to be fair.

Yes, because one member is a cheat and a liar - they all are? What sense does that make.

Good result for Labour. Excellent result for UKIP. That lib dem result is absolutely dire.

[Conservative,]

Yes, because one member is a cheat and a liar - they all are? What sense does that make.

Good result for Labour. Excellent result for UKIP. That lib dem result is absolutely dire.

I didn't say it did, but I still would never trust that party again if my local MP did that.

[Catzsy]

I didn't say it did, but I still would never trust that party again if my local MP did that.

So one rogue MP means they are all the same then? The party didn't lie and cheat. He did and has rightly suffered the consequences.

[Conservative,]

So one rogue MP means they are all the same then? The party didn't lie and cheat. He did/

Well...I could argue against that tbh.

[Catzsy]

Well...I could argue against that tbh.

Yes, because you don't like the labour party anyway. :P

[Conservative,]

Yes, because you don't like the labour party anyway. :P

Doesn't change the fact that several of their MPs have lied in the past (Blair, Brown, etc.) so y'know.

[Catzsy]

Doesn't change the fact that several of their MPs have lied in the past (Blair, Brown, etc.) so y'know.
Usual rhetoric supported by opinions and no evidence, just subjection - all parties have rogue MP's so maybe lay off the labour party and be a bit more discriminating like in fact the voters of Barnsley who obviously don't see it the same way as you. I hope you are not going to join the '**** labour off at any given opportunity' brigade as it does get very boring.

[GommeInc]

Yes, because one member is a cheat and a liar - they all are? What sense does that make.

Good result for Labour. Excellent result for UKIP. That lib dem result is absolutely dire.
I can see it making sense IF the result for Labour was dreadful, as people do assume if one member is bad then the whole lot of them are. It's interesting how this controversy was quickly cleaned up and didn't effect the end result.

Amazing result for UKIP though, hopefully more good results will come out for it :P

[Conservative,]

Usual rhetoric supported by opinions and no evidence, just subjection - all parties have rogue MP's so maybe lay off the labour party and be a bit more discriminating like in fact the voters of Barnsley who obviously don't see it the same way as you. I hope you are not going to join the '**** labour off at any given opportunity' brigade as it does get very boring.

Yes all MPs do but Labour have had more than their fair share recently. And 2 of them leaders. lol...

Plus, why vote Labour. What is Miliband actually going to do? He has not set out any plans, but openly critcises the current Government, without actually saying what he'd do. Lol. I think voting Labour right now is like voting


I can see it making sense IF the result for Labour was dreadful, as people do assume if one member is bad then the whole lot of them are. It's interesting how this controversy was quickly cleaned up and didn't effect the end result.

Amazing result for UKIP though, hopefully more good results will come out for it :P

Hopefully yup, and yeah people do assume that, but I think they were stupid in voting in a party with no policies *+*+*

[GommeInc]

Hopefully yup, and yeah people do assume that, but I think they were stupid in voting in a party with no policies *+*+*
They may have been given all kinds of information by the parties in that area, so we can't really judge. I assume they're a predominantly Labour area, so they probably just vote for whoever has served them well (as can be expected) so they're more comfortable to vote that way.

[Conservative,]

They may have been given all kinds of information by the parties in that area, so we can't really judge. I assume they're a predominantly Labour area, so they probably just vote for whoever has served them well (as can be expected) so they're more comfortable to vote that way.

Yeah, that's the trouble with people these days, too afraid to try something new ;l

[-:Undertaker:-]

I'm happy with the result and the fact that UKIP was the only party to increase its amount of votes from 2010 in that area, so well done.

http://order-order.com/2011/03/04/the-barnsley-bombshell/

Interesting also to see (from the graph) that the Labour eurosceptic wing 'patriotic old Labour' is biting back via backing, encouraging signs as is the result for the independent coming ahead of the Liberal Democrats showing that people are now beginning to drop their tribal instincts.

[Catzsy]

I'm happy with the result and the fact that UKIP was the only party to increase its amount of votes from 2010 in that area, so well done.

http://order-order.com/2011/03/04/the-barnsley-bombshell/

Interesting also to see (from the graph) that the Labour eurosceptic wing 'patriotic old Labour' is biting back via backing, encouraging signs as is the result for the independent coming ahead of the Liberal Democrats showing that people are now beginning to drop their tribal instincts.

I feel that UKIP may have started to break the mould a bit here and are actually growing into a credible political force. There would be some interesteing debates if they could get some MP's into parliament which would be less parochial than some of the small parties such as Plaid Cymru.

[Sarah]

Amazing for UKIP in this by-election! It definitely becomes worrying when the Liberal Democrats place lower than the BNP.

[Jordy]

I'm not usually part of the '**** off BBC Brigade' but it's definitely worrying the BBC Article on the bi-election fails to point out just how well UKIP have done.

[GommeInc]

Amazing for UKIP in this by-election! It definitely becomes worrying when the Liberal Democrats place lower than the BNP.
It's probably because the Lib Dems are a bigger joke than the BNP :P They change their values too often and never fight for them, while the BNP at least keep on the straight and narrow road never changing their views. Students do not like the Lib Dems anymore thanks to the appauling way they handled the Tuition Fees, and it was the student backing that helped them, judging by the campaigns previous to the elections. Now that people have realised the Lib Dems are just gum stuck to the feet of other parties, no-one wants to vote for them.

[Fez]

I forgot to mention I am firmly AGAINST AV and would love for nothing better than members of the public to hit the last nail in the coffin for Clegg and his yellow friends.

Amen to that.