They think it's all over...

[Fez]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/04/global-recession-g20-summit


A world recession has drawn closer after a fractious G20 summit failed to agree fresh financial help for distressed countries and debt-ridden Italywas forced to agree to the International Monetary Fund monitoring its austerity programme.

Financial markets fell sharply after the two days of talks in Cannes broke up in disarray, amid concerns that Italy will now replace Greece at the centre of Europe's deepening debt crisis.UK hopes that the Germans would relent and allow the European Central Bank to become the lender of last resort for the euro were also dashed.On a day of unremitting gloom and yet more market turbulence, the Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, won a late-night confidence vote in his parliament after making a speech in which he promised to start powersharing talks to form a caretaker coalition government. Although he won the vote by 153-145, he is now expected to step down and a national unity government is expected to take over in the coming days.

Papandreou said he would visit the country's president on Saturday to launch power-sharing talks "with the [opposition] parties … for the formation of a government of broad co-operation."In a sign that the spread of the debt crisis to Italy could break up the single currency, the chancellor, George Osborne, admitted the Treasury was undertaking crisis planning for a eurozone collapse.

I would not be surprised if, in the next few weeks, that it turns out 2012 will open up with something remarkable and rare in the Western world these days: democracy. The EU's grip can only tighten so much right now and I doubt they can handle this debt crisis that is spreading (now) across the entire world and beyond the continent. If the Western world wishes to survive they have to accept being selfish, they have to accept the fact that our 'Red Knight' (Chinese) doesn't wish to slay the dragon any longer. He wants to set up his own family now, his own Kingdom and he won't be there to save us any more.

Prediction: one final roll of the dice from the EU before it resigns to self-destruction or takes us into a double-dip recession.

[-:Undertaker:-]

It is over, the bailouts have only stalled (and made worse) the final exit from the Euro by the 'PIGS' nations along with perhaps France which is in danger of having its credit rating downgraded. I hope for the European Union to collapse with the dreadful Euro, but if not then we'll still have a long fight on our hands - at least with the Euro gone, the construction of a European Superstate will be halted.

A word of caution though, Britain with its ever-increasing debts and the United States will eventually go the same way if spending is not slashed. The difference however between us and the Euro of course is that because we have our own monetary controls we can adapt and survive for longer.

A good booklet from Open Europe on the topic; http://www.openeurope.org.uk/research/eurotheysaidit.pdf

[Jordy]

What are the chances of the EU collapsing along with Euro (assuming it does if Greece goes bankrupt?). I know it's all ideal but is there much logic to it all? I'm quite uninformed in that matter but I must admit it is rather all fascinating at the moment, the next few weeks will continue to be very interesting. It's all so fast-moving and whilst the ending is somewhat predictable, the lead up to it is far from it.

[-:Undertaker:-]

What are the chances of the EU collapsing along with Euro (assuming it does if Greece goes bankrupt?). I know it's all ideal but is there much logic to it all? I'm quite uninformed in that matter but I must admit it is rather all fascinating at the moment, the next few weeks will continue to be very interesting. It's all so fast-moving and whilst the ending is somewhat predictable, the lead up to it is far from it.

I'd assume popular opinion pulling it apart, we've already had some countries (correctly) re-impose border controls which is one of the whole points for the existence of the European Union; one state, one border - along with the growth in patriotic political parties across Europe with the True Finns in Finland (from around 3% to nearly winning the general election), the National Front in France (high in Presidential polls), Geert Wilders in the Netherlands (strong growth) and UKIP in the United Kingdom (7% nationally).

Charles Moore in the Telegraph made the point on the EU that once it loses the 'inevitability' factor then the project dies, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8870248/The-European-Unions-journey-towards-ever-closer-union-has-screeched-to-a-halt.html - another point is, as this crisis deepens (as it will) then federalists will become increasingly out in the open which is what they've avoided for decades in calling for a federal Europe. Of course, this will only hurt their project as who would vote to abolish their nation?

We can only hope either way, but we now have the momentum (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HlzozqfIdU).

[Eoin247]

While the euro may be abolished i don't believe that the actual EU will go away. Central European countries in particular have benefited greatly from the EU. They wont let the whole thing disappear any time soon. Germany isn't just helping other EU nations out of good will of course.

Slightly off topic, but i say this with regards to the mention of democracy in the initial post. I think that most western countries are going to have to reformat their governmental systems. Some lessons should be learned from China whilst not going too far down their version of communism (which isn't really communism anyway). While the government should have some degree of involvement in peoples' lives, there shouldn't be as much as there currently is and their size should be reduced.

Anyway i'm going to stop before i go too far off topic

[GommeInc]

Anyway i'm going to stop before i go too far off topic
It's not, it's quite an interesting discussion, so do continue if you want :P

I don't think the EU should be completely abolished, as I think there needs to be an organisation all European countries should be apart of where they all brain storm ideas in a Union of sorts, just that power should be left to the people and Governments of those nations than people who are only serving the Union for money and business. The EU has got too big for its boots and is slowly becoming a nuisance, a hinderence and a waste of resources. But that's to be expected, it is a leech afterall :P

Back to the topic at hand, that's another handful of nails hammered into the coffin of the EU. Why don't they just face facts and realise its failed? A successful project is one which has very little problems for the get go, and benefits everyone and is usually accepted by the populace. It clearly hasn't done any of these, and they should just face facts.

[Jordy]

I'd assume popular opinion pulling it apart, we've already had some countries (correctly) re-impose border controls which is one of the whole points for the existence of the European Union; one state, one border - along with the growth in patriotic political parties across Europe with the True Finns in Finland (from around 3% to nearly winning the general election), the National Front in France (high in Presidential polls), Geert Wilders in the Netherlands (strong growth) and UKIP in the United Kingdom (7% nationally).

Charles Moore in the Telegraph made the point on the EU that once it loses the 'inevitability' factor then the project dies, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8870248/The-European-Unions-journey-towards-ever-closer-union-has-screeched-to-a-halt.html - another point is, as this crisis deepens (as it will) then federalists will become increasingly out in the open which is what they've avoided for decades in calling for a federal Europe. Of course, this will only hurt their project as who would vote to abolish their nation?

We can only hope either way, but we now have the momentum (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HlzozqfIdU).Some interesting points cheers, I'm having difficulty predicting what will happen when Greece inevitably collapses, I think atm everything is on the table. Most likely the EU will survive but the Eurozone won't. But quite frankly I must admit I'm "sceptic" of the Eurosceptic movement, the EU just seems too god damn powerful and relentless. The way it continually clings on, even in this impossible scenario makes me think it's nearly impossible to get rid of.

It wouldn't surprise me if the EU and Eurozone managed to pull through it and succeed in grabbing more powers for monetary and fiscal union in the process :/