May Local Elections voting intentions and a new third Party?

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100115144/as-the-landscape-starts-to-shift-ukip-can-create-political-havoc/

YouGov/Sun - CON 35, LAB 40, LDEM 9, UKIP 8


http://www.politicshome.com/images/nigelfarage2.jpg
Nigel Farage: to replace Nick Clegg as the third voice in politics?


Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Others 16%. The five point Labour lead is bang in line with recent YouGov polls, but it’s worth noting that within that 16% for others UKIP are on 8%, their highest since the European election in 2009.

Its worth noting that concerning the European Elections, that was YouGov polling (in 2009) for European Elections and not the typical question of 'Who will you vote in the General Election' which UKIP are now polling minimum 6% now upto 8% nationally compared with the Liberal Democrats 7% to 12% in the national polls. Of course if this were a Green Party or a Communist Party then the BBC would be in overdrive, but nevermind. I'd also note that despite it being the common idea that UKIP is solely for disillusioned Conservatives, equal numbers of Labour (especially working class voters) and Liberal Democrats have started to join the growing number.

Anywho, two questions including voting intentions because I usually do them in the run up to elections over the course of a few months; do you think UKIP can potentially become the third party in British politics and replace the Liberal Democrats along with the question of who are you intending to vote/who would you vote come the May 2012 Local Elections?

And also, what do you think the result of the next General Election is likely to be?

Thoughts!

[Ajthedragon]

The Lib Dems will pull through and remain the third party.

UKIP will not and shall not replace them, especially in my region where everyone votes either Lib Dem or Conservative.

[Inseriousity.]

I like your optimism dan but I think two things will stop them:

lack of media coverage
the 'I've voted for these all the time' mindset

In my region, you could stick a monkey with a red rosette and it'd get all the votes. Admittedly, the majorities are getting smaller and smaller but I don't think the opposition has been able to push as effectively as they would like due to constraints like funding or media coverage so I imagine things to remain the same.

Not entirely sure what the result of next general election should be. I generally end up voting for the person who looks like they'll do the best for my region so it really depends on the leaflets I get through the door.

[beth]

i'm voting labour :).

[Technologic]

Labour

[Rozi]

If I could vote, I'd vote labour

also no, I don't think UKIP can become the "3rd party". It's too far from the centre, with labour, theconservativesand lib dems being fairly central. although I do think support for it will get bigger, I don't think there's much chance of it ever being a big party for a while, if ever.

[dbgtz]

Conservatives will not win the next election likely in my eyes, they cut on the wrong things meaning the people get pissed, Lib Dems will probably be mullered next election due to them being seen to have sold out on the whole tuition fees to be in power. I honestly think Labour will win, but I really don't understand why anyone in their right mind would vote for them. Ed seems like he wouldn't know what to do more then anything. UKIP probably won't as although the percentage is higher, the support doesn't seem concentrated enough in a constituency to win a seat. And it definately won't win in my area as it has pretty much always been a Tory town.

[Neversoft]

I'm voting UKIP, but they have absolutely no chance in my constituency. Labour always get the huge majority.

[dirrty]

idk if i'll vote next year, or ever really. i don't really believe in any of the parties tbf, but i'll probably vote for labour by default if i had to vote. not that bothered though nevertheless.

[Technologic]

The thing with UKIP is they don't really have anything beyond "leave the EU"

[Fez]

Pirate obviously.

[GommeInc]

I'd hate Labour to be in control again. I'd hate the Conservatives to be in control again. I'd hate the Liberal Democrats to be anywhere near the House of Parliament. I'm tempted to vote UKIP as they have some sensible policies (biggest obviously being leave the EU which ever Government in the EU should consider). Labour just absorb the money and are bad at understanding growth, and given the Global Economic Climate they will probably panic in the face of the inevitable problems that will persue. The Conservatives are alright, but they've not really done any cutting that is worth while for the whole country.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The thing with UKIP is they don't really have anything beyond "leave the EU"

http://www.ukip.org/page/ukip-manifesto
http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies

But there were far more policy commitments in their Local and General Election manifestos than any of the three main parties.


I like your optimism dan but I think two things will stop them:

lack of media coverage
the 'I've voted for these all the time' mindset

In my region, you could stick a monkey with a red rosette and it'd get all the votes. Admittedly, the majorities are getting smaller and smaller but I don't think the opposition has been able to push as effectively as they would like due to constraints like funding or media coverage so I imagine things to remain the same.

Not entirely sure what the result of next general election should be. I generally end up voting for the person who looks like they'll do the best for my region so it really depends on the leaflets I get through the door.

I'm not saying it will happen, but I do think we are potentially close to a tipping point where something (whether it involves UKIP being a part of it or not) will mirror the Gang of Four moment in the 1980s with the SDP and Labour. It is possible after all, Labour did it to the Liberal Democrats in the 1920s and the SDP came a dust-sized particle away from destroying the Labour Party in the 1980s.

But I agree entirely with the monkey analysis! :P


also no, I don't think UKIP can become the "3rd party". It's too far from the centre, with labour, theconservativesand lib dems being fairly central. although I do think support for it will get bigger, I don't think there's much chance of it ever being a big party for a while, if ever.

But perhaps thats the appeal, that they actually stand for something other than the status quo?

[Rozi]

I agree that that is why some people are attracted to them

but I think the british public are keen on sticking to what they know and sticking with people who have proved, at some point in the past, that they can do something right especially in this time of economic instability

[Ajthedragon]

Oh forgot to post, I will be voting Conservative.