UKIP knock the Liberal Democrats to fourth party for first time

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/26117/ukip_overtake_lib_dems_in_polls.html

LAB 43% ; CON 32% ; UKIP 9% ; LD 8%

UKIP overtake the Liberal Democrats as third party in new poll, Conservative Party support drops to near 30%


A Sun/YouGov poll has seen UKIP overtake the Liberal Democrats for the first time to become the third biggest party in the UK.

The survey - which puts UKIP on 9% and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's party on 8% - is also bad news for the Liberal Democrats' Coalition partners, with the Tories trailing Labour 32% to 43%.

UKIP said this evening the poll marked a "significant moment", with the party's leader Nigel Farage adding that British people were "waking up to a new reality".

The poll is very interesting, they're pulling in 17% of the over 60's group (the most likely group to vote) and they are actually slightly ahead in the north of England as compared with the South - although both areas are more or less equal in terms of support. The 'working class' voter group is also double what the Liberal Democrat one is showing that support is dripping from all three of the establishment parties.

Slow and steady wins the race, I hope.


John Prescott ‏ @johnprescott

Lib Dems relegated to FOURTH in the polls for the 1st time - YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 43%, UKIP 9%, LDEM 8% #LIBDEAD


Nadine Dorries MP ‏ @NadineDorriesMP

@TimMontgomerie UKIP 17% and LibDems 7% among over 60s (likeliest to vote) in @Sun_Politics / @YouGov poll>> Hello No10, WAKEY WAKEY!!

Sorry for another thread on this topic, but i'm really sensing a shift and none of the mainstream media will report it ....... thoughts?

[FlyingJesus]

Just out of interest, where do these polls take place and how? I don't doubt that UKIP are on the up - in fact I had a lengthy and worthwhile discussion about it with a few peers earlier - but it would be interesting to see what numbers are actually asked, on what basis they're asked these questions, how these questions are worded, and basically the actual statistics behind it rather than just a blind percentage being thrown out as though it were indicative of absolutely everyone. The site you linked to only says that it's Sun/YouGov poll, and I reallllllly hope that doesn't mean Sun as in the newspaper and its readership as (not to be TOO classist) their political opinions as far as I've seen tend to range from "I HATE TAXES THAT IS ALL" to "GIVE ME FREE MONEY"

[-:Undertaker:-]

Just out of interest, where do these polls take place and how? I don't doubt that UKIP are on the up - in fact I had a lengthy and worthwhile discussion about it with a few peers earlier - but it would be interesting to see what numbers are actually asked, on what basis they're asked these questions, how these questions are worded, and basically the actual statistics behind it rather than just a blind percentage being thrown out as though it were indicative of absolutely everyone. The site you linked to only says that it's Sun/YouGov poll, and I reallllllly hope that doesn't mean Sun as in the newspaper and its readership as (not to be TOO classist) their political opinions as far as I've seen tend to range from "I HATE TAXES THAT IS ALL" to "GIVE ME FREE MONEY"

Ah, it's spread amongst the chattering classes. :P

Here (http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4v1i2t5nh2/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-160412.pdf) are the tables and spreads for this particular poll where you can see age groups, past voting intentions of those asked etc. I don't usually post the links to the spreads because I doubt people on here are much interested in polling methodology so you've bucked a trend there lol. UKPollingReport (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/) is the general site which analyses the polls and provides the links to the spreads, whereas companies like YouGov or Survation actually carry them out amongst the general public (no, not newspaper readers).

So say the Sun newspaper will go to COMres or Yougov to commission a poll for a certain sum, and then they [the polling companies] carry out the polling amongst the general public with random sampling. That's why usually the poll will be called something like 'Guardian/ComRes Poll' but it's not actually a poll of Guardian/whatever newspaper it may be readers - it's just to show who commissioned the poll and who carried it out.

They can be wrong of course, famously all the exit polls projected a hung parliament on election night in 1992 yet John Major won outright.

[FlyingJesus]

Ahhh that is far more satisfying :P and definitely an interesting switch, obviously they're not a realistic major problem for the main 2 parties in terms of creating any sort of majority but the rise of UKIP along with independents and other smaller parties has to be of some concern for them in that it shows overall dissatisfaction, and of course the increased difficulty in winning or maintaining majorities for themselves. I think the EXTREMELY BASIC but fairly well accepted view of UKIP is that they're "like the BNP but not racists and with actual ideas on how to make things happen", and the biggest obstacle for them is getting rid of that first premise while keeping their positives intact, so if they can manage that before the issues they oppose become irreversible I do think they represent a viable future for British politics

[Inseriousity.]

Ah, it's spread amongst the chattering classes. :P

Here (http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4v1i2t5nh2/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-160412.pdf) are the tables and spreads for this particular poll where you can see age groups, past voting intentions of those asked etc. I don't usually post the links to the spreads because I doubt people on here are much interested in polling methodology so you've bucked a trend there lol. UKPollingReport (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/) is the general site which analyses the polls and provides the links to the spreads, whereas companies like YouGov or Survation actually carry them out amongst the general public (no, not newspaper readers).

So say the Sun newspaper will go to COMres or Yougov to commission a poll for a certain sum, and then they [the polling companies] carry out the polling amongst the general public with random sampling. That's why usually the poll will be called something like 'Guardian/ComRes Poll' but it's not actually a poll of Guardian/whatever newspaper it may be readers - it's just to show who commissioned the poll and who carried it out.

They can be wrong of course, famously all the exit polls projected a hung parliament on election night in 1992 yet John Major won outright.

Oh I've always wondered that myself lol. I thought a Guardian/ComRes poll results would look different to a Mail/ComRes poll so it's good to know it is a little bit more random than that! Although I am still a little cynical because researchers still need a make a living so I imagine it'd be bad business to give them results they don't want to hear!

[Chippiewill]

It really only indicates the trend as with a sample size that small we're only talking about an 18 person swing.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Three new polls out tonight, confirming the trend.

Opinium - LAB 37%, CON 32%, UKIP 10%, LDEM 9%

YouGov/Sun - LAB 41%, CON 32%, UKIP 9%, LDEM 8%

Angus Reid - LAB 41%, CON 29%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8%