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View Full Version : By-election results from Rotherham, Corby North and Middlesbrough



-:Undertaker:-
30-11-2012, 02:39 AM
By-election results: Labour manage to hold all three seats, Tory and Liberal Democrat vote collapse and UKIP comes 2nd in two seats and third in another


http://www.iaza.com/work/121130C/iaza17188345060200.png

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100192232/ukip-is-now-the-main-opposition-to-labour-in-northern-england/

UKIP is now the main opposition to Labour in northern England


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/files/2012/11/UKIP_Wallop__2412481b1.jpg
Social services will have an awful lot of kids to confiscate, what with all those UKIP supporters


What does Labour have to do to lose a seat like Rotherham? The previous MP, Denis MacShane, resigned after obtaining public money by deceit – a far worse case of malfeasance than many which attracted heavier opprobrium during the expenses revelations. The candidate chosen to select him, Sarah Champion, was imposed by the NEC, prompting half the local party to walk out in protest. The council's inactivity over child grooming cases was juxtaposed with its unbelievable removal of foster children from UKIP-voting parents.

And yet, even in a by-election, even when there was no chance of changing the government, even when they might have painlessly signalled that they were sick of being taken for granted, the townsfolk plodded out to give MacShane's party a massive majority.

People are forever complaining that MPs take their voters for granted; but can you blame them? The solution, as I never tire of arguing, is open primaries. In the mean time, though, I don't want to hear any Rotherham Labour voters moaning about the arrogance of the political class.

Labour had a good night in all three seats. Of the other parties, only UKIP has cause to celebrate. No so much because of its strong second place in Rotherham, but because it also came second in Middlesborough, where there were no special circumstances, as well as a respectable third in Croydon. In each of the three by-elections, UKIP easily beat the LibDems – as, indeed, it did in the police elections and the Corby by-election a couple of weeks ago, and as it tends to do in opinion polls. For how much longer will commentators be able to refer to Nick Clegg as leader of our third party?

As the LibDems crumble, especially in the northern cities where the Conservatives have little presence, UKIP is becoming the main anti-Labour alternative. On any rational analysis, the case for a Tory-UKIP pact, based on an In/Out referendum, is now unarguable. My party could, with good conscience, stand aside in many of the seats we currently don't hold in exchange for clear run in the seats we are likely to win.

The main objection to such a deal used to be that UKIP was likely to do best in the seats where the Conservatives were strongest, but that argument no longer works. UKIP has come second in Barnsley, Middlesborough and Rotherham – a feat that Nigel Farage himself couldn't manage in Buckingham. Yet, as the logic pulls one way, the emotions in both parties pull the other. Hence the looming tragedy – for both parties and for the Eurosceptic cause – of the 2015 elections.

Congratulations and thanks to all the candidates. It is no small thing, especially in the current climate, to put yourself forward for election. Whatever your result, you should be proud of yourself for standing.


I've even made a lovely little chart which you can open up for comparisons to the 2010 results.

Labour managed to hold all the seats (all three are Labour strongholds), UKIP came 2nd in two and 3rd in another (it's best ever election result recorded in Rotherham) and the Tories and Liberal Democrats had an absolutely terrible night.

I watched the Sky interview with Jane Collins though, and the reporter asked "Where do UKIP go from here?"

....and she replied "Up." - a nice note to end the night on. :P


Thoughts?

Kardan
30-11-2012, 07:49 AM
Do we know the turn out percentages? Yes, the majority percentages are up, but the number of votes are only slightly up... The Rotherham figures are impressive though, around double the amount of votes than in 2010. Still a long way to go to win a seat however.

-:Undertaker:-
30-11-2012, 08:40 AM
I just heard that on polling day (and heard it last night), that internal UKIP polls put UKIP equal with the Labour Party - apparently it was only the postal votes which were done earlier on that Labour managed to secure the extra 4,000 votes needed to cling on. It's good though, show's the party is capable of winning in hardcore Labour territory. I know the latest YouGov poll put them on 11% nationally and 15% in the north of England.

You've got to hand it to Labour though; allegations of a pedophile cover up by the council I have read, taking children away from parents for politically motivated reasons, the MP there calling for a EU Superstate and fiddling his expenses and then having the nerve to knock on doors campaigning in this election after he resigned in disgrace? It's true what they say, stick a red rosette on a dog poo in some areas and it'll win.


Do we know the turn out percentages? Yes, the majority percentages are up, but the number of votes are only slightly up... The Rotherham figures are impressive though, around double the amount of votes than in 2010. Still a long way to go to win a seat however.

They'll be on the wikipedia entries but I could only fit so much on, had to knock off loads of independent candidates who got double digit results to fit it all on. I think the Rotherham vote was the highest of all three at 33% odd turnout.

Inseriousity.
30-11-2012, 09:26 AM
stick a red rosette on a dog poo in some areas and it'll win.

sadly not wrong. even worse, they know it so can do what the bloody hell they like. very poor night for lib dems especially in rotherham, nick clegg is seen as the devil by the general public for throwing away his principles and going into coalition with the tories and the tories are happy to use him as a shield when the **** gets thrown at the government. they're heading for electoral disaster.

GommeInc
30-11-2012, 04:48 PM
Social services will have an awful lot of kids to confiscate, what with all those UKIP supporters
The UKIP candidate for North Croydon is black... Suddenly the world seems strange, like UKIP may not be racist!

Kardan
30-11-2012, 07:17 PM
I just heard that on polling day (and heard it last night), that internal UKIP polls put UKIP equal with the Labour Party - apparently it was only the postal votes which were done earlier on that Labour managed to secure the extra 4,000 votes needed to cling on. It's good though, show's the party is capable of winning in hardcore Labour territory. I know the latest YouGov poll put them on 11% nationally and 15% in the north of England.

You've got to hand it to Labour though; allegations of a pedophile cover up by the council I have read, taking children away from parents for politically motivated reasons, the MP there calling for a EU Superstate and fiddling his expenses and then having the nerve to knock on doors campaigning in this election after he resigned in disgrace? It's true what they say, stick a red rosette on a dog poo in some areas and it'll win.



They'll be on the wikipedia entries but I could only fit so much on, had to knock off loads of independent candidates who got double digit results to fit it all on. I think the Rotherham vote was the highest of all three at 33% odd turnout.

So a lower turn out than normal, but that doesn't detract from anything too much. Still quite far off winning some seats, but nevertheless it's some significant progress :)

dbgtz
30-11-2012, 07:25 PM
So a lower turn out than normal, but that doesn't detract from anything too much. Still quite far off winning some seats, but nevertheless it's some significant progress :)

If things continue as they are currently, I think UKIP will get a couple of seats bearing in mind there's still 2 1/2 years until the general election. Though obviously in those years they could just as easily lose support rather than gain it (but that looks less likely in my opinion).

Chippiewill
30-11-2012, 09:17 PM
Out of curiosity, how many by-elections were there? I'm impressed if there were 3 or something but if it's like a hundred then it's not really significant.

-:Undertaker:-
30-11-2012, 09:34 PM
Out of curiosity, how many by-elections were there? I'm impressed if there were 3 or something but if it's like a hundred then it's not really significant.

There were three by elections, the three I listed.

Chippiewill
30-11-2012, 09:37 PM
There were three by elections, the three I listed.

Very interesting then, a big win for UKIP, despite the lack of an actual win.

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