State of the parties: UKIP polling now only 10% behind the Conservatives

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news-events/media-alert-a-surge-in-support-for-ukip-as-the-conservatives-fall-to-their-lowest-level-recorded-in-a-tns-bmrb-poll


http://www.iaza.com/work/121211C/iaza17822081720900.png
Author of picture: http://www.theblueguerilla.co.uk/

Voting intentions poll shows CON 26% (-2), LAB 41% (+1), LD 8% (-2), UKIP 16% (+4), OTHER 9% (-1)

LAB 41% (+1)
CON 26% (-2)
UKIP 16% (+4)
LDEM 8% (-2)
OTHER/S 9% (-1)


The Conservatives had a poor week as they dropped another two points in the first full TNS BMRB poll since the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement was released on December 5th. This puts them at 26%; a five point drop in the last two weeks and the lowest level yet recorded by TNS BMRB.

Labour have been holding steady over the last few weeks but the Conservatives’ poor showing means their lead has increased to 15 points. The Liberal Democrats dropped two points, putting them on 8%.

UKIP appear to be the main beneficiary from Conservatives’ woes as they pick up another four points to rise to 16%. UKIP have now increased their poll share by nine points over the last three weeks.

It should be noted that the results for the Conservatives and UKIP are at the extreme end of what other polling companies have recorded over the last week and, as ever, it is important to not view individual polls in isolation. However, these findings do suggest that the Autumn Statement has done the Conservatives no immediate good.

Notes to editors: TNS BMRB interviewed a representative sample of 1,192 people between 7th-10th December, 2012. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion. The data is weighted to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2010 voting patterns and region. Further information is available upon request.

As stated for UKIP, it's only one poll - but it must be noted that all other polls this past week have also had them at 9% to 13% (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_genera l_election#2012). In terms of the Conservatives its dreadful, do you remember when Brown was looking like he was about to be thrown out before the election and his rating for Labour sank to about 25%? .. if that was considered dreadful then what can be said about the Tories after two and a half years. And another point is, if Farage's party can overtake Clegg's in two years... watch out Cameron?

Interesting nevertheless, certainly putting the "its a wasted vote" myth to bed.

Thoughts?

[Mathew]

There was a section in today's Financial Times where they were discussing the best and worst possible outcomes for Labour and the Conservatives in regards to the EU. I don't remember any of the details, but UKIP was mentioned quite frequently, and I just considered how far the party seems to have come in the past couple of years. I once thought it was a distant party with just one voter (you) but your posts continue to make complete sense, and the polls show a significant amount of people are beginning to agree. The party members were branded as "closet racists" in 2006, and six years down the line it's becoming one of the main three. Very interesting.

[Inseriousity.]

The 'it's a wasted vote' mentality is alive and kicking with the general public sadly. My uncle was complaining about the leader of the council and when I asked him who he voted for, he replied, "No-one, the other one is just as bad" as if there were only two candidates when the likelihood was there were several. These polls mean nothing if come election time those very people are not using their vote.

[HOSKO02]

There's no way Labour will receive such a poor percentage if it came to an election tomorrow, sure Milliband's been quiet in the press recently in comparison to his ludicrous 'one nation' debacle not long ago, but the stalwart supporters in my region especially are still stuck in the working class mentality and won't budge on labour, especially when they're kids are the very benefit cheats that benefit still from their policies in the naughties.

There's a real vacuum in the political landscape in this country for a real party for the left, but I fear the voter base wouldn't be there for them, but its good to see relatively new groups trying. (http://www.pirateparty.org.uk/)

[Chippiewill]

it's only one poll
Let's not even attempt to twist figures or read into this too much, it should be blindingly obvious that this poll is not statistically significant and the actual percentage is around 10/11%


All interviews were conducted as online self-completion.
Lets not pretend that this doesn't bias the younger generation, aka the one with low voter turnout, whereas the older population with the high voter turnout will vote in the opposite direction.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Before I address your points made, I really don't see why you've jumped on this as though everybody is saying this poll is solid concrete proof. Heck, even the polling organisation itself stated (which I kindly posted) that this particular poll has been out of line with recent polls that have been sampled.

We're talking about a general trend here and a surprising poll, not hardcore mathematics.


Let's not even attempt to twist figures or read into this too much, it should be blindingly obvious that this poll is not statistically significant and the actual percentage is around 10/11%

However this poll is the most recent, as always though you check later polls after this and before to see the trend - a trend which is upwards. Indeed, when it came to the local elections earlier this year - UKIP were polling around 8% but ended up with 13% to 14% nationally in seats contested.


Lets not pretend that this doesn't bias the younger generation, aka the one with low voter turnout, whereas the older population with the high voter turnout will vote in the opposite direction.

Good news then, as UKIP's highest polling group is the 60+ group who are more likely to vote as you've kindly pointed out. So if anything, online polls suppress the UKIP vote. And also it's worth noting, that TNS (like all pollsters other than Angus Reid) leave out UKIP in the prompt - which one could argue suppresses the vote. Time and elections will tell, the next test being the 2013 Locals.

But nobody can argue that the pattern has been upwards for the past two and a half years, indeed in the last two months they've moved from around 9% the average to 10% and over nowadays. Interesting times and trends certainly, which is what this thread is all about.

I'd also add that this number isn't a bizzare number - in polls where UKIP polled 9% nationally, a recent YouGov breakdown of their support put the party at 22% in the East Anglia region making it their main stronghold of support.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Two new polls out tonight from Comres and Opinium put UKIP on 14%, http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2012/12/economy-same-sex-marriage-send-ukip-soaring-to-14-its-highest-ever-comres-rating.html

The figures for the Independent on Sunday are:

LAB 39% (-4)
CON 28% (-3)
UKIP 14% (+6)
LDEM 9% (-1)
Others 9% (+1)

...and the other;

Labour 39%
Conservative 29%
UKIP 14%
Liberal Democrats 8%

Interesting, especially if you put it like this; for every two Tory voters there is now a UKIP voter.

Or for every Liberal Democrat voter, there are now two UKIP voters.