UKIP down at 2009 actual vote share in first YouGov 2014 Euro elections poll

[Chippiewill]

The first YouGov poll fr the June 2014 Euro elections has, somewhat surprisingly, UKIP at exactly the same level as they achieved in June 2009.

Given recent Westminster voting intention polling there had been speculation that UKIP could even finish in first place. Well they might well do that but they have a long way to go if these YouGov findings are right.

There’s little change, as well with the CON and LD shares. The big mover,of course, is LAB which finished four years ago in third place on 16%.

Clearly there’s a long way to go.
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/01/15/ukip-down-at-2009-actual-vote-share-in-first-yougov-2014-euro-elections-poll/

Despite all the noise about UKIP soaring in popularity they're not doing brilliant in the one place they should be.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I thought you didn't take notice of the polls?

Anyway, so far there have been three polls taken (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_%28United_Kingd om%29#Opinion_Polls) to my knowledge - with two putting UKIP support at 22% and 23% (1% ahead of the Conservatives) for European Election voting intentions. The YouGov poll does put them lower (well, at what they got last time when they came second nationally) although thats expected in this part of the cycle as UKIP always poll lower even for European Elections prior to the campaigning period weeks before the election, see here for this shown in the 2009 elections; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_%28United_Kingd om%29#Opinion_polls

Peter Kellner (manager of YouGov, the pollster which generally polls UKIP lower than the others) has written an excellent piece (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/peter-kellner/measuring-ukips-support_b_2479435.html?utm_hp_ref=uk) which backs me up on the polling history and makes the point that for UKIP to be polling 16% to 23% at this stage in the electoral cycle is very good news for Mr. Farage.

Nice try, but you really shouldn't make these sort of posts without analysing the polling data and history from all companies. :P


However, it is worth stressing the near certainty that the actual EP election results will differ, probably massively, from these figures so long before the contest. Were I David Cameron, I wouldn’t breathe a sigh of relief about outperforming Ukip at the European elections just yet. Unless he manages to turn back the Ukip tide, starting with his speech on Europe on Friday, I would be surprised if the Conservatives remain ahead of Ukip when all the EP election votes are counted in June next year.

Meanwhile party membership has today reached 21,000 after passing the 20,000 mark the other week, and the party is in a statistical dead heat with the Liberal Democrats as of 2013 polling data; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_genera l_election#2013

[Chippiewill]

and the party is in a statistical dead heat with the Liberal Democrats as of 2013 polling data; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_genera l_election#2013

Percentage points don't translate into seats.

[RyRy]

Percentage points don't translate into seats.

True, but it's a good indicator.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Percentage points don't translate into seats.

I never made the claim otherwise, however they're getting to the point now where it will give them the chance to start winning multiple seats. You only have to think back to the recent by elections of the past year where they came second to see seats are now within reach.

Yet more good news today with Ipsos Mori (which usually shows the party lower than other pollsters) has today put UKIP third for the first time in their general election polling intentions, http://order-order.com/2013/01/16/another-pollster-has-ukip-in-third-and-not-just-for-euros/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9806603/Tory-voters-switching-to-Ukip-poll-finds.html


Just two days before the Prime Minister makes his long-awaited speech on the European Union, a survey by pollsters Ipsos Mori has found that Nigel Farage’s party has climbed to a record high.

Nick Clegg has been dealt a major blow, with the poll showing the Liberal Democrats have slumped to their lowest support in 20 years on eight points.

Ukip has gone up in the poll by two points in the last month to nine per cent, beating the Lib Dems into fourth place.

Mr Farage claimed that Tories have told him his success in the polls is the reason for David Cameron making his speech in Amsterdam this Friday.

“Here in the coffee bars of Strasbourg every Tory MEP I speak to say the same thing,” Mr Farage told the London Evening Standard. “Their Eurosceptics say ‘if not for you this wouldn’t be happening’, while their Europhiles say it’s because of us that the Prime Minister can’t focus on domestic issues.”

UKIP is directing and shaping the national debate without even having seats.... yet.