The HxF Mole - Task 4: Higher or Lower

[Charz777]

Task 1: 0/15 days
Task 2: 0/7 days
Task 3: 4/8 days
Task 4: 0/9 days
Task 5: 0/8 days
Task6: 0/0 days
Total: 4/150 days

We have taken two post count readings. The first was taken when the Introduction thread was posted, the second was taken immediately after the first execution ended.

You must decide between you who the first player will be.

The first player needs to estimate the combined post count increase for all players. For example, if Dave had 1,200 posts at the Introduction thread and 1,242 at the execution thread his increase is 42 posts. If Sarah and Jane have increased their post counts by 57 and 13 respectively, then the combined increase for Dave, Sarah and Jane is 112.

After the first player has estimated, the group will then be told if they are higher or lower than the correct amount.

The second player must then make an adjustment to the first players estimate, for example, if Harry’s guess was 100 then he is too low and therefore the next player, Sam, would guess +7 which takes them to 107 which is still too low. This will continue until time runs out or every player has guessed.

If you get the answer dead on, the player who submitted that answer will win an exemption and the task will end whether or not every player has had their turn.

You will get 9 days of VIP if your estimate is 1% out, 7 days if you’re 2% out, 5 days if you’re 3% out, and 3 days if you’re 5% out and 1 day if you’re 10% out.

Reminder: Each player can only have one guess, which as always must be in bold for it to count.

All valid posts in bold will be taken as a submission. You may discuss the task freely, including the submissions that you wish to put forward as a final answer, before you have posted them in bold.

If there are any errors within the task, or any questions – just post in the thread.

[Phil]

Well to start this off, I doubt I posted even ten posts

[FlyingJesus]

Posts don't increase in here so we can discount all game posts, and then just use the "last posts" feature on profiles to count the rest

[Phil]

I have still have access to the script David made to record the amount of posts staff make in a certain amount of time

[Rozi]

shall everyone look back through their post counts and estimate what they think their post count could be?

[RyRy]

Ill have a look through mine tomorrow after work

[wixard]

alright well my post count should be 8

[Rozi]

think mines about 6
its hard to count around all the forum games and spam

[wixard]

i guess we can get people to triple check
ill check yours rosie

---------- Post added 11-02-2013 at 02:30 AM ----------

ROSIE YOURS IS 3

[Rozi]

OH LOL

how did you find out
i got bored
i'll check yours

---------- Post added 11-02-2013 at 02:33 AM ----------

tara I think yours is 9 but not sure

[wixard]

yes youre right
ok mines 9

[wixard]

1 - scottish;
2 - FlyingJesus;
3 - RyRy; - 5
4 - @mrwoooooooo - 1
5 - @Zombies
6 - Nick;
7 - cameron;
8 - Bolt660;
9 - Stephen;
10 - Intersocial; - 38
11 - Rozi; - 3
12 - MyOffDays; - 9
13 - buttons; -
14 - wixard; - 8

ok i cba doing anymore but thats what i got

could be wrong

[FlyingJesus]

11 for me I believe, 3 for Stephen, 18 for Nick unless congrats threads still adds post count which it shouldn't but think it might for some reason, 4 for Cameron (again unless congrats threads count) cba doing more until I find out about congrats threads since people seem to love posting in them for some reason

[Nick]

lolwhat

[LiquidLuck.]

I'm so confused with these tasks. They are just messy tbh S:

[buttons]

So spam, forum games and congrats don't count? Execution quiz was 9th 11:59 pm so ive done 3... :s

[Kardan]

I'm so confused with these tasks. They are just messy tbh S:

You don't need to understand them...

[MKR&*42]

The congrats thread definitely doesn't boost post count :P

[RyRy]

Okay I'm going to have a guess to get this ball rolling seeing as we're 16 hours into the task and have no idea yet.

123 posts


estimated on the numbers already posted by FlyingJesus; and wixard; in this thread, plus a guesstimation addon from the 105 posts I got from their totals. There are 3 users that hadn't been added so I guessed what their combined total would be.

[Charz777]

123 posts

You are currently lower than the value you're looking for.

[FlyingJesus]

What no don't guess you nonce the idea is that we actually get it right

[mrwoooooooo]

it really isn't a hard task if someone bothers go and check

[wixard]

tom we have loads of chances, it's better if he guesses so we get more of an estimate to what it is
nobody else is doing it, at least hes trying

i'll count up everybodys when im done with my essay but it'd be big help if people actually posted what they think theirs is

[mrwoooooooo]

Mines 1

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 2

[FlyingJesus]

Do post counts go up for cnb and welcome/leaving threads? Also do we have to work it out for the guys who've been booted or just the ones left because I totes cba doing Martin's

[Charz777]

Do post counts go up for cnb and welcome/leaving threads? Also do we have to work it out for the guys who've been booted or just the ones left because I totes cba doing Martin's

The answer only needs calculating for the 14 remaining players. You do not need to include Bolt660 and Paige.

[FlyingJesus]

Oh good. I get 76 for Shedim but that's without welcome threads so idk could be more

---------- Post added 11-02-2013 at 04:20 PM ----------

Got 187 as a provisional total but not boldingggggg

[wixard]

ill do it YOLO 187

[FlyingJesus]

omf you rebel what are you like!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Charz777]

187

You are currently lower than the value you're looking for.

[RyRy]

You are currently lower than the value you're looking for.

This is all Martin's fault I bet.

I think guess around 235 and then if it's a lower value then we've got a decent area to calculate on.

[buttons]

meh w.e ill make next guess ​223

[RyRy]

Would it be possible to get a hint as to what the number could be e.g. prime number, multiple of 4/5 or even the first digit in the full answer?

[Rozi]

i'll do the one after jen

---------- Post added 11-02-2013 at 04:54 PM ----------


Would it be possible to get a hint as to what the number could be e.g. prime number, multiple of 4/5 or even the first digit in the full answer?

we've still got plenty of guesses to see

[RyRy]

i'll do the one after jen

---------- Post added 11-02-2013 at 04:54 PM ----------



we've still got plenty of guesses to see

yeah I know, was just wondering whether the possibility was there. Wouldn't take it just yet.

[Charz777]

223

You are currently higher than the value you're looking for.

[RyRy]

So the range we know of is 187 to 223

36 possibilities.

[MKR&*42]

Want me to guess 200 ?

[wixard]

guess 200 then stop
and everyone needs to recount
cos we'll only have a few guesses left

[MKR&*42]

Ok.

I guess 200.

[Rozi]

oh wait i guessed same time as someone else ignore post

[RyRy]

If its below 200 there's 12 or 13(?)possibilities we haven't guessed.

If it's over 200, there's 22 or 23(?) possibilities we haven't guessed.

havent thought properly about it lol

[buttons]

If its below 200 there's 12 or 13(?)possibilities we haven't guessed.

If it's over 200, there's 22 or 23(?) possibilities we haven't guessed.

havent thought properly about it lol
yeah but look at first post we don't NEED the exact number, if someone does get it they get exempted though and it stops, there are other chances for VIP but yeah it's best to guess as accurate as possible

[RyRy]

yeah but look at first post we don't NEED the exact number, if someone does get it they get exempted though and it stops, there are other chances for VIP but yeah it's best to guess as accurate as possible

yeah but we are kinda working together here and if we can get somebody an exemption whilst we're lowering the possibilities then that's good aint it.

[Charz777]

Ok.

I guess 200.

You are currently lower than the value you're looking for.

[buttons]

yeah but we are kinda working together here and if we can get somebody an exemption whilst we're lowering the possibilities then that's good aint it.
for them :p but don't think it really matters but yea worth counti it all up again. it's your posts between 11:59pm, on the 9th and 9pm on the 7th right? I have 3 posts not incl spam and forum games.

[MKR&*42]

Ok so we have 22 different numbers to guess now :P

[Phil]

Shall I do a YOLO?

[MKR&*42]

for them :p but don't think it really matters but yea worth counti it all up again. it's your posts between 11:59pm, on the 9th and 9pm on the 7th right? I have 3 posts not incl spam and forum games.

Is it not 11:59pm on the 10th? Because that's when the first execution ended (not started).

I'll try and count them up.

[buttons]

Is it not 11:59pm on the 10th? Because that's when the first execution ended (not started).

I'll try and count them up.
oh god yes ok 8 for me then omg I think we're gonna have to end up doing yolos if we're posting more then it won't show all our posts in that time frame in our last posts wow that makes no sense I'm leaving

[Rozi]

how many people have guesses left?

it'll be quite easy to eliminate it

[Phil]

I think we have like ten guesses left

[mrwoooooooo]

209

[Charz777]

209

You are currently higher than the value you're looking for.

[Phil]

206

[wixard]

we got it then, someone guess 205

[FlyingJesus]

Jen you had 9

[Rozi]

​205

[Phil]

Should have waited til my digit was replied to xD

[Charz777]

206

Congratulations! This is the correct answer.

Task 4 is now over, and you will be awared with 9 days of VIP. This will be added to the prize fund.
MyOffDays; has earned an exemption for the next Execution Quiz for guessing the correct answer.

[buttons]

woo wd

[Phil]

NICE ONE THANKS

[FlyingJesus]

Oh ffs I just finished counting lol

[RyRy]

WOOP WELL DONE PHIL

[orientalframe?]

well done mr philip is it 1 l or 2

[Phil]

One :(

[orientalframe?]

ITS ALRIGHT ITS EDITED

[Charz777]

Locking this thread now, get yourselves over to Task 5! :D