Conservatives in crisis as they are overtaken by UKIP in crucial by-election

[-:Undertaker:-]

Conservatives in crisis as UKIP push Tories into THIRD place as Liberal Democrats hold onto Eastleigh in dramatic by-election

- Turnout was 53% and seat was held with majority of 1,771
- 19% swing from Liberal Democrats to UKIP
- Labour vote increases by 0.2%
- By-election comes after the Hampshire seat was vacated by Chris Huhne
- Strong UKIP showing pushed Conservatives into humiliating third place
- Last time a prime minister's party took a seat in a by-election was in 1982



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A traditional two-way marginal turned into a three-way marginal with UKIPs surge


David Cameron is facing fresh Tory infighting today as a UKIP surge enabled the scandal-hit Liberal Democrats to cling on in the most crucial by-election battle for 30 years.

The Liberal Democrats have held the south coast seat of Eastleigh seat vacated by Chris Huhne - despite an unprecedented period of bad publicity over the Lord Rennard scandal and record lows in national opinion polls.

When the result was declared at 2.20am, the Lib Dems had won with a majority of 1,771 votes. Turnout in the by-election was 52.8 per cent, a high figure for a mid-term poll.


http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/03/01/article-2286303-185C9148000005DC-385_634x552.jpg
Set for the win: Lib Dem sources declared in the early hours that they believed they had held the seat of Eastleigh vacated by Chris Huhne with a win for Mike Thornton (pictured this morning with his wife Peta)


UKIP was celebrating its best ever by-election result and said it had pushed the Tories – who have named Eastleigh as one of 40 seats they must win to secure an overall majority in 2015 – into a humiliating third place.

The pro-independence party’s leader Nigel Farage declared: 'We are very sure we have come second. If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote, we'd have won.’

The Conservatives threw everything at the campaign, with Mr Cameron making two personal visits to the constituency and activists even distributing leaflets featuring its candidate Maria Hutchings against a background in UKIP’s purple and yellow colours.


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Mr Cameron’s former leadership rival David Davis said this week that while few expected a Tory victory – the last time a prime minister’s party took a seat in a by-election was in 1982, at the height of Margaret Thatcher’s Falklands popularity – a third place finish would prompt a ‘crisis’.

Mr Farage will now face questions about why he ducked the contest himself – instead fielding a little-known Surrey councillor – amid suggestions UKIP could have its first elected MP had he taken part as by far its best known figure.

The Eastleigh contest, triggered by the resignation of former Lib Dem Cabinet minister Mr Huhne, who pleaded guilty to perverting the course of justice, marked the first time in modern political history that two governing parties have gone head to head.


http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/03/01/article-2286303-185C5B2A000005DC-274_634x420.jpg
Having fun: Howling Laud Hope was the Eastleigh candidate for the Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party


It was seen as a dry run for the 2015 election campaign, when the Tories hope to take up to 20 seats from their Lib Dem coalition partners in order to secure a Commons majority.

The Prime Minister had hoped his pledge earlier this year of an in/out referendum on Britain’s future in Europe would help to neutralise the UKIP threat in the contest.

Yesterday he used his Twitter account to make a last-ditch appeal for support in the by-election, insisting that the Tories have the 'the right policies on welfare, immigration and the deficit'.

The result also leaves Ed Miliband facing difficult questions. In a seat where it was in a solid second place in the mid-1990s, polling at almost 30 per cent, Labour finished in a poor fourth place, expecting to poll only just in double figures.

The party's candidate, comedian John O'Farrell, was plagued by questions about his books which have included jokes about the IRA attempt to kill Margaret Thatcher and his wish for Britain to be defeated in the Falklands War.

Labour’s campaign had so little traction that officials said they would regard a vote share of more than ten per cent as a success.


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Apparently UKIP won the most votes on the night, but the Liberal Democrats just clinched it with the earlier postal votes from the last two weeks. It's UKIPs best result ever in a parliamentary seat and they've gone from 3% to 28% in the space of two/three years.

In terms of the wider consquences, i'd simply echo what David Davies had said. It's a massive blow to the Conservative Party, as for the Tories to hope to secure a majority in 2015 Eastleigh is a seat they need to win - what will worry backbenchers will be not only can they not win against a deflated Liberal Democrat party on its lowest national poll ratings ever, but it's now got UKIP overtaking it in a seat that isn't even a UKIP stronghold.

I've said it before and i'll say it again, barring exceptional circumstances the Conservative Party is finished.


If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote, we'd have won.

Thoughts?

[FlyingJesus]

Bit of a ridiculous statement since it wasn't "their" vote to split - if anything, UKIP split the Conservative vote

[-:Undertaker:-]

I'd just add that I read somewhere tonight that if UKIP had a swing of 24% like this nationally, it'd pick up over 400 seats.


Bit of a ridiculous statement since it wasn't "their" vote to split - if anything, UKIP split the Conservative vote

It's silly to say anybody split the vote, because nobody owns a chunk of the vote. But constantly we in UKIP had it thrown at us (and still we do, just look at the angry Tory boys on Twitter) so it's time to throw it back at them and make them look stupid. A tongue in cheek wind up, so to speak.

Besides, whats ironic is that if you examine the UKIP vote tonight it's actually coming more or less equally from the Tories, Liberal Democrats, Labour and (here's the best news) there's been a huge turnout of people who usually wouldn't vote who have decided to back the party in Eastleigh.

[Kardan]

I must say I was shocked to see UKIP do so well, but we won't know until the general election whether this was just a very good result or if it reflects the views of the country as a whole. Slightly annoying to see that Farage complained about losing because of the conservatives rather than celebrating the fact that they've gone up by 24%. I don't expect that to happen all over the country at the next general election and gain 400 seats, that's a bit mad. But they will finally get some seats. I would agree that the conservatives are in trouble now though...

[-:Undertaker:-]

Kardan;

He means it partly tongue in cheek as that was the same stick the Conservatives were planning to beat us over the head with had UKIP come just behind the Conservatives - I saw the recording when he said it on BBC This Week and I remember it being a poking-fun-at-you tone as Grant Shapps was sitting on the sofa, a man who has been claiming throughout this election campaign that the UKIP vote somehow 'belongs' to his party.

The next test will be the English local elections this May, last time UKIP polled 14% in the seats in which they stood. Interesting times ahead.. :P

[Swearwolf]

brilliant

[Chippiewill]

but it's now got UKIP overtaking it in a seat that isn't even a UKIP stronghold.

Since when did UKIP have a stronghold?

[AgnesIO]

It would be interesting to see how UKIP do in an election where the leaders are the Conservatives or Labour. I mean, this is a Liberal Democrat "strong hold".

I stand by what I say, the moment Farage gets in to any position of power, I will leave the country.

[GommeInc]

Part of me thinks UKIP could of won if the Conservatives did not deploy dirty tactics. The leaflets the Conservative candidate was handing out looked suspiciously like UKIP documentation, by using purple and yellow as the colours, and having very little information with regards to the party of the candidate. Also, the lady was being supported by a UKIP MEP.

[AgnesIO]

Part of me thinks UKIP could of won if the Conservatives did not deploy dirty tactics. The leaflets the Conservative candidate was handing out looked suspiciously like UKIP documentation, by using purple and yellow as the colours, and having very little information with regards to the party of the candidate. Also, the lady was being supported by a UKIP MEP.

Surely that would boost UKIP votes, as UKIP would be advertised more? :P

[GommeInc]

Surely that would boost UKIP votes, as UKIP would be advertised more? :P
Should do, but then you have the people who only go by names, so some people might of noted down her name and voted for that rather than the party. Quite impressive though, UKIP did surprisingly well given the change from the 2010 election.

[Chippiewill]

People voting against the in-government party? Real shocker there.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I stand by what I say, the moment Farage gets in to any position of power, I will leave the country.

I know, I mean just imagine a government headed by a man who has had a real job and which introduced proper immigration controls, started to get spending under control, left the EU and negotiated a free trade agreement (FTA), reintroduced the grammar schools in poorer areas... it'd be hell on Earth. I'm so glad we've got people like David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband who are principled & who really know what they are doing. :P


People voting against the in-government party? Real shocker there.

The Conservatives can keep telling themselves that and that it's a fluke that will wither away by tommorow; just as they did in the 1999 European Elections, the 2004 European Elections and the 2009 European Elections, the 2010 General Election and the 2012 Local Elections.


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On the rise: Support for UKIP in Commons by-elections has soared since the Coalition was formed, rising from 5.8 per cent in Oldham and Saddleworth in January 2011 to 27.8 per cent in Eastleigh

[AgnesIO]

I know, I mean just imagine a government headed by a man who has had a real job and which introduced proper immigration controls, started to get spending under control, left the EU and negotiated a free trade agreement (FTA), reintroduced the grammar schools in poorer areas... it'd be hell on Earth. I'm so glad we've got people like David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband who are principled & who really know what they are doing. :P



The Conservatives can keep telling themselves that and that it's a fluke that will wither away by tommorow; just as they did in the 1999 European Elections, the 2004 European Elections and the 2009 European Elections, the 2010 General Election and the 2012 Local Elections.

Farage always looks so smug, it just makes me despise him! I am not apparently as concerned about immigration as yourself - whilst I think it should be tightened, I think Farage wants to go too far. I hate to say it, but the EU won't just let Farage stroll out of it, and then get the best part of it back (eg. FTA). On grammar schools, sure bring them to poorer areas. But that only works if the standards don't drop at all (admittedly my knowledge on grammar schools in poor areas isn't great - they are around me, but I don't really know what poor areas are in England, when looking at the grammar school situation that is haha).

Whilst I am Conservative, I obviously dislike Cameron like most other Conservatives. I dislike Clegg (hey look at my signature), and Miliband - he hasn't had a chance to mess up yet. I just think that none of the above can really do anything that drastic - they are all too weak.

Farage on the other hand, in my eyes, would love to do it Gove style and change everything he possibly can.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Ah delightful, the reply is much appreciated. +rep

I don't want a long debate either if you think i'm trying to drag you into one, just a quick back-and forth!


Farage always looks so smug, it just makes me despise him! I am not apparently as concerned about immigration as yourself - whilst I think it should be tightened, I think Farage wants to go too far.

That's strange aha, most people even those who disagree with him quite like his down to earth personality, the type of guy to have a pint with.

And where in your mind does Farage go too far in wanting to change immigration? I mean, do you even know the UKIP policy on immigration? (without looking it up) - just a fair question i'm interested to know the answer of, and if so what parts of that policy are worse than the policy we have today?


I hate to say it, but the EU won't just let Farage stroll out of it, and then get the best part of it back (eg. FTA).

On what evidence are you basing this on? have you read Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and come to this conclusion? if so, you would know that nobody is suggesting we 'stroll out of it' - because we have to leave legally and in a sensible manner.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

Give me one reason why countries such as Argentina, Egypt, Oman and Saudi Arabia can have a FTA with the EU but we, one of their biggest trading partners and a country which is the financial capital of the world, cannot.


On grammar schools, sure bring them to poorer areas. But that only works if the standards don't drop at all (admittedly my knowledge on grammar schools in poor areas isn't great - they are around me, but I don't really know what poor areas are in England, when looking at the grammar school situation that is haha).

Well I didn't exactly come from a very poor area, but the areas I know and live in/around are classed as deprived (Liverpool Walton, Bootle, Anfield, Fazakerly) and I know from my own experience at school at a state comprehensive that it let down the cleverer kids who I remember watching sitting there, completely bored out of their wits because they were miles ahead of the class.

The reason social mobility has been declining since the grammar were abolished in the 1960s? the answer is in the question.


Whilst I am Conservative, I obviously dislike Cameron like most other Conservatives. I dislike Clegg (hey look at my signature), and Miliband - he hasn't had a chance to mess up yet. I just think that none of the above can really do anything that drastic - they are all too weak.

Farage on the other hand, in my eyes, would love to do it Gove style and change everything he possibly can.

But you've just said Cameron, Miliband and Clegg can't do anything too drastic because of their weakness.. and then gone on to blast the two people who you think would bring change? :S I don't understand.

[Chippiewill]

The Conservatives can keep telling themselves that and that it's a fluke that will wither away by tommorow;
They can because it's true, it applies to every party which is in government, most of the people voting for UKIP are doing it to make the conservatives listen to them.

[-:Undertaker:-]

They can because it's true, it applies to every party which is in government, most of the people voting for UKIP are doing it to make the conservatives listen to them.

Oh indeed, but it's now coming almost equally from Labour, the Liberal Democrats and people who never even vote now. But to go back to that point, thats exactly my point. If the main three political parties listened to their supporters and the people of this country, whether its on crime/immigration/the European Union/the debt - then UKIP wouldn't need to exist.

I can't see them listening anytime soon, if ever - but the Tories especially should keep this (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100151515/as-long-as-the-eurosceptic-vote-is-fragmented-the-euro-enthusiasts-will-keep-winning/) history lesson in mind.

[Chippiewill]

If the main three political parties listened to their supporters and the people of this country, whether its on crime/immigration/the European Union/the debt - then UKIP wouldn't need to exist.It's difficult to please everyone.

[-:Undertaker:-]

It's difficult to please everyone.

It is, which is why we ought to have some proper debate in this country.

If the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour want uncontrolled mass migration, if they support ceding more powers to the European Union, if they support a continuous rise in state spending, if they fully back the comprehensive education system, if they want tuition fees' to rise - then by all means, let them argue for it. But they never ever do because at election time, they switch to UKIP type messages.

The majority of people want our laws made here and not in Brussels, want a sensible and controlled immigration policy & sensible spending. Thats all.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Sorry, just seen this.


Since when did UKIP have a stronghold?

Areas like the North East of England and East Anglia where UKIP polls much higher than its national average, as well as areas which scored above the national average (3.2%) in the 2010 General Election - of which Eastleigh isn't, the 2010 Eastleigh result was very much in line with the national average back then.

[AgnesIO]

Ah delightful, the reply is much appreciated. +rep

I don't want a long debate either if you think i'm trying to drag you into one, just a quick back-and forth!



That's strange aha, most people even those who disagree with him quite like his down to earth personality, the type of guy to have a pint with.

And where in your mind does Farage go too far in wanting to change immigration? I mean, do you even know the UKIP policy on immigration? (without looking it up) - just a fair question i'm interested to know the answer of, and if so what parts of that policy are worse than the policy we have today?

Always come across to me as annoyingly smug (particularly when he is in Europe, it just comes across as tedious to me - I may well be in the minority there haha). With regards to immigration I have read the policies before, so I will answer this without looking it up now (which would certainly refresh memory, but also be pointless for this discussion :)). I totally agree on their aspect of returning illegal immigrants, for example. Whether this would be easy to do - even outside of the EU - as I imagine there would often be a strong case with the UDHR. I am unsure exactly what they refer to when they suggest treating people here due to the EU like any other country - if it literally looks to kick as many out as possible, then I think that would be wrong - especially if someone has been living here for over 8 years (and working, of course). I do find their immediate five year freeze policy slightly odd too - what do we do with staff who would be very beneficial to UK firms? Like the often very hard working Asian's in business?

On what evidence are you basing this on? have you read Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and come to this conclusion? if so, you would know that nobody is suggesting we 'stroll out of it' - because we have to leave legally and in a sensible manner.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

Give me one reason why countries such as Argentina, Egypt, Oman and Saudi Arabia can have a FTA with the EU but we, one of their biggest trading partners and a country which is the financial capital of the world, cannot.

Because they were never in Europe to start with. I think if we never entered Europe, we could get a FTA easily - I cannot see Europe reacting too well to us leaving, then asking for the best bit of it back. I didn't mean stroll out of it as a simply "bye guyz" - but whether you do it legally or not, I was just referring to the idea of how it seems people want us to just leave, as if it were that simple!


Well I didn't exactly come from a very poor area, but the areas I know and live in/around are classed as deprived (Liverpool Walton, Bootle, Anfield, Fazakerly) and I know from my own experience at school at a state comprehensive that it let down the cleverer kids who I remember watching sitting there, completely bored out of their wits because they were miles ahead of the class.

The reason social mobility has been declining since the grammar were abolished in the 1960s? the answer is in the question.

As I have already said, I couldn't really give a reasonable argument based on knowledge about the grammar schools - as we have one in my area, and as I say, I don't really know what areas of England are particularly poor.

But you've just said Cameron, Miliband and Clegg can't do anything too drastic because of their weakness.. and then gone on to blast the two people who you think would bring change? :S I don't understand.

I think they (well, he) would bring change - I think they would try and make too much change, at a too rapid pace. We have seen this with Michael Gove and his changes to education (and of course the pretty sharp u-turns!)

Additionally, on another point, I agree that they should scrap benefits for non-UK citizens. But there are just as many (in fact, I think there are far more) UK citizens to ride the benefits system like a theme park ride than there are non-UK citizens. I would personally have their benefits scrapped and put in prison, but that is just me.

Anyway +Rep, nice to talk about this sort of stuff again, Dan :)

[Ardemax]

I know this is slightly off topic but what are the UKIP views on benefits in general?

Relating to this thread: I think the more Lib-Dem "strongholds" under pressure the better. So close to seeing some actual change.