ICM: Support for Britain's established parties is splintering as UKIP hits record 18%

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/farage-factor-ukip-support-record

Farage factor powers Ukip support to record high

Guardian/ICM poll sees Ukip double its support in a month amid unprecedented disillusionment with top three parties


http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/5/13/1368455991223/Ukip-leader-Nigel-Farage--008.jpg
Ukip leader Nigel Farage toasts the party's success in the Marquis of Granby pub in Westminster after making substantial gains in local elections. Photograph: Reuters


Support for Britain's established parties is splintering, as Ukip appears poised to break the political mould by doubling its support within a single month, according to a Guardian/ICM poll.

Nigel Farage's party has surged from its previous record best with ICM, the 9% it notched up in April, to 18% after its council election victories earlier this month.

Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have been left reeling, with all shedding four points on the month to 34%, 28% and 11% respectively.

For all three established parties to be falling substantially at the same time is unprecedented in the 29-year history of the Guardian/ICM series.


http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/5/13/1368461132748/ICM460May.png


Ukip's 18% is the best it has achieved with any pollster in any of the surveys logged at UK Polling Report. It is all the more remarkable for ICM, whose careful adjustments for voters who decline to reveal their political preference smooths out the wilder fluctuations of the electoral cycle.

The Tories are plumbing depths they have not experienced in more than a decade – barring a single month in 2002, they have not fallen below 28% since Tony Blair's political honeymoon in 1997-98. The Liberal Democrats, which typically fare better with ICM than other pollsters, have not fallen below today's 11% in the series since September of 1997, the immediate aftermath of Blair's first victory.

Labour's score of 34% is a miserable platform on which to build an election victory in 2015, and is its lowest since the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown's ejection from power in July 2010.

After weeks of publicity for Ukip's leader, a "Farage factor" is clearly evident in the personal leadership ratings. Last month voters were split down the middle on his performance – 28% saying he was doing a good job; 29% a bad job – giving a net negative score of –1.

Today, the balance of opinion is running 40%-23% in his favour, a net positive of +17. Meanwhile, David Cameron hits a new personal low of –15, and Ed Miliband picks up only one from the even more dismal record of -23 which he set last month, to stand at –22.

Lack of enthusiasm for the official opposition is matched by deep disillusionment with the government. Asked to put aside party differences and consider the decision of Cameron and Nick Clegg to govern in coalition, 49% of voters say they disapprove, compared with the 36% who approve.

In May 2010, weeks after the coalition formed, ICM asked the same question and found an overwhelming 59%-32% split in favour of a unity government.

The "none of the above" disillusionment is also evident in a surge in support for other minor parties, especially the neo-fascist BNP. It stands on 4%, up three on the month, while the Greens are on 2% and the combined Welsh and Scottish nationalists stand at 3%.

Add in Ukip, and the assorted parties formerly lumped together as "others" have a combined 27%, only one point less than the Conservatives and seven less than Labour. The score is also up on last month's combined "others" total of 16%, the highest these assorted parties had scored with ICM.

Another thread on polling I know, but quite a few seem to be mildy interested in it and it's certainly more interesting than its ever been as our FPTP traditionally three-party system appears to be morphing into a highy unpredictable 4-party system. Worth noting also that ICM usually show the purples on the lowest of all pollsters and don't prompt them, so i'm looking forward to seeing the next Survation poll that comes out.

I read some analysis a few days ago somewhere that pointed out that as UKIPs support climbs into higher teens, the taking of votes from the Conservative Party slows down and the taking of Labour support grows the better the party is doing which is interesting - and it appears as though it's being replicated in the national polls now with Labour also taking a rather large hit.

Thoughts? would you consider voting UKIP? and are you/your family traditionally blue, red or yellow?

[Ardemax]

So as the UKIP vote increases, the Tory vote declines and Labour get a walk-over majority?

[-:Undertaker:-]

So as the UKIP vote increases, the Tory vote declines and Labour get a walk-over majority?

Trend analysis is Tory vote declines rapidly at first and then levels off, Labour vote starts to get hit when UKIP poll above high-teens.

But even if it did result in a Labour majority (which is going to happen anyway) what difference will it make? zilch.

[Odette]

Hi, I don't usually reply to your threads, or even post on Habbox for that matter, but I would just like to thank you for your very informative posts on UKIP and British politics in general.

My parents are traditionally "Conservative" and were horrified by my growing support for UKIP. I myself used to think that a UKIP vote was a wasted vote, however it's now obvious that such a statement no longer stands. I voted UKIP in the local elections, and I won't feel guilty for voting UKIP in the next general election. Like Nigel said in a recent Australian news interview, it makes no difference whether lost Tory votes result in a Labour government - the unfortunate reality is, our government is impotent and will be until we claim back our independence and finally leave the EU.

[AgnesIO]

So as the UKIP vote increases, the Tory vote declines and Labour get a walk-over majority?

I suspect the most likely party to get a majority in the next election are the Conservatives.

---

Are we going to see these threads for the next two years? I hate to say it, but it is verging on tedious - you almost come across as a UKIP candidate attempting to grab the vote (I don't mean to dampen your political stance though, Dan, so please don't think I do!)

The poll here simply doesn't match the recent county council elections - as the results suggest UKIP are the third most popular party, despite the Liberal Democrats clearly beating them in the recent election.

[Ardemax]

I suspect the most likely party to get a majority in the next election are the Conservatives.

Really? Everything is swinging for Labour right now.

[Kardan]

So, with how things are going at the moment, all the UKIP supporters want to get out of the EU, and the conservatives are offering a referendum to get out of the EU, but because UKIP are taking votes away from the Conservatives, Labour will end up winning and keep us in the EU :P

[GommeInc]

So, with how things are going at the moment, all the UKIP supporters want to get out of the EU, and the conservatives are offering a referendum to get out of the EU, but because UKIP are taking votes away from the Conservatives, Labour will end up winning and keep us in the EU :P
It's a wonderful system :P

Would Labour really win with a clear majority when it comes to the General Election? It seems like it could become another coalition, unless there are plenty of stupid people ready to vote Labour. They lack any policies, other than the one which states "criticise the Conservatives".

[-:Undertaker:-]

Hi, I don't usually reply to your threads, or even post on Habbox for that matter, but I would just like to thank you for your very informative posts on UKIP and British politics in general.

My parents are traditionally "Conservative" and were horrified by my growing support for UKIP. I myself used to think that a UKIP vote was a wasted vote, however it's now obvious that such a statement no longer stands. I voted UKIP in the local elections, and I won't feel guilty for voting UKIP in the next general election. Like Nigel said in a recent Australian news interview, it makes no difference whether lost Tory votes result in a Labour government - the unfortunate reality is, our government is impotent and will be until we claim back our independence and finally leave the EU.

Why thank you, I know it gets a bit repetitive (and usually a party doing well doesn't really concern me even if it is UKIP) but if it means spreading the word about how many of our powers have been given away without our consent to the EU, and if it means that by publicising UKIP we have to get out - i'll do it. :P

I mean lets be frank, the EU is a boring and complex topic to get your head around - but it needs to be talked about. I would love to be posting on this part of the forum about all different topics from immigration to the debt and so on... but with some topics completely dictated over by Brussels and all three main parties the same we can't do that.

+rep


I suspect the most likely party to get a majority in the next election are the Conservatives.

Oh my.


Are we going to see these threads for the next two years? I hate to say it, but it is verging on tedious - you almost come across as a UKIP candidate attempting to grab the vote (I don't mean to dampen your political stance though, Dan, so please don't think I do!)

You don't have to reply or even read it.

I wouldn't usually post on the topic as much as I recently have done, but with the three main parties all suddenly talking (but not doing) on things like the debt, immigration, the EU - it's all because Farage has put the spooks up them.

So long as most of our laws are made in Brussels, EU threads will continue - if the BBC won't tell you then I will.


The poll here simply doesn't match the recent county council elections - as the results suggest UKIP are the third most popular party, despite the Liberal Democrats clearly beating them in the recent election.

UKIP beat the Liberal Democrats in both the Local elections (by 23% to 14%) and the by-election in South Shields? (by 24% to 1.4%) :S


So, with how things are going at the moment, all the UKIP supporters want to get out of the EU, and the conservatives are offering a referendum to get out of the EU, but because UKIP are taking votes away from the Conservatives, Labour will end up winning and keep us in the EU :P

The problem is, nobody believes them or him. :P I mean just look at their history on it, the amount of lying and two faced statements on the EU from the Tories ever since we joined is breath taking - and finally they are paying for it.

Labour are also starting to pay in the polls now anyway in regards to their immigration + economic mess.

[Grig]

The problem is, nobody believes them or him. :P I mean just look at their history on it, the amount of lying and two faced statements on the EU from the Tories ever since we joined is breath taking - and finally they are paying for it.

Labour are also starting to pay in the polls now anyway in regards to their immigration + economic mess.

The problem is the Tory party is in shambles over this, they are showing how weak, disjointed and poorly managed they really are. There is no true statesman leading it and the fact that quite a few MPs are talking about jumping ship makes them even more of a lame duck party.

But the Tories are nothing, Labour is even worse and it is stupid how people decide just because the Tories are doing badly, they will simply jump to Labour. Labour have no concrete policies and if Mr. Miliband comes to power, he'll be worse than Gordon Brown- you can take my word for it.

It's still too early to tell what will happen in 2015 because the political environment is extremely volatile and dynamic. But, if we remain in a state of status quo, then the UKIP can start preparing for their Parliament debut. Although, I have a feeling this will come earlier, particularly if a few disgruntled Tory lawmakers actually decide to join the UKIP.

[AgnesIO]

Oh my.




Well who else has any chance, if your own words are true?

Labour won't ever leave - rules them out
Lib Dems have zero chance of getting a majority
UKIP have zero chance of getting a majority
That leaves errr the Conservatives.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The problem is the Tory party is in shambles over this, they are showing how weak, disjointed and poorly managed they really are. There is no true statesman leading it and the fact that quite a few MPs are talking about jumping ship makes them even more of a lame duck party.

But the Tories are nothing, Labour is even worse and it is stupid how people decide just because the Tories are doing badly, they will simply jump to Labour. Labour have no concrete policies and if Mr. Miliband comes to power, he'll be worse than Gordon Brown- you can take my word for it.

It's still too early to tell what will happen in 2015 because the political environment is extremely volatile and dynamic. But, if we remain in a state of status quo, then the UKIP can start preparing for their Parliament debut. Although, I have a feeling this will come earlier, particularly if a few disgruntled Tory lawmakers actually decide to join the UKIP.

I agree completely with the analysis, but I don't even think this is about leadership anymore - the fact is that the Tory Party is so divided on so many issues (and the rift over Europe can never be healed as both sides hold absolute principles over it) that it really is time for it to collapse and split. It's name is ruined, its unmanageable and its a failure.

Time for it to go the way of the old Canadian Conservative Party. This is a good article on the Tories - http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/18/tories-europe saying a formal split over Europe is rather likely.


Well who else has any chance, if your own words are true?

Labour won't ever leave - rules them out
Lib Dems have zero chance of getting a majority
UKIP have zero chance of getting a majority
That leaves errr the Conservatives.

Why would the Conservatives lead us through the exit door? if one were to place any bets on which party would have us leave out of the main three, it'd be Labour because at least Labour have previously been against the EU and at least Labour have given us a referendum on the issue in the past.

As for UKIP leading us out, really? on a uniform swing UKIP only needs 34% to achieve a parliamentary majority. Last nights record breaking polls are as follows...

Opinium -

LAB 37%
CON 27%
UKIP 20%
LDEM 7%

ComRes -

LAB 35%
CON 29%
UKIP 19%
LDEM 9%

[GommeInc]

Why would the Conservatives lead us through the exit door? if one were to place any bets on which party would have us leave out of the main three, it'd be Labour because at least Labour have previously been against the EU and at least Labour have given us a referendum on the issue in the past.
I was of the opinion Labour were Pro-EU :/ They didn't exactly criticise it throughout their times in Parliament. Might of not noticed though. By definition the Conservatives should be, but they're unsure what they believe in any more :P

[-:Undertaker:-]

I was of the opinion Labour were Pro-EU :/ They didn't exactly criticise it throughout their times in Parliament. Might of not noticed though. By definition the Conservatives should be, but they're unsure what they believe in any more :P

Oh Labour are avidly pro-EU now, just they never used to be. That's my point really - there's a delusion amongst Conservatives that the Tory Party has historically been standing up for Britain in Europe and is a patriotic party that wouldn't surrender powers to the EU when they are the exact opposite. The Tories have the worst history on the EU - Thatcher after all was brought down by the issue and knifed by her own party when she dared to stand in its [the EU] way.

[AgnesIO]

Oh Labour are avidly pro-EU now, just they never used to be. That's my point really - there's a delusion amongst Conservatives that the Tory Party has historically been standing up for Britain in Europe and is a patriotic party that wouldn't surrender powers to the EU when they are the exact opposite. The Tories have the worst history on the EU - Thatcher after all was brought down by the issue and knifed by her own party when she dared to stand in its [the EU] way.

She also supported the expansion of the EU...

----

A deluded view to suggest Labour would leave - whether they were historically against Europe or not, they are not NOW (when it matters!)

Also UKIP may "only" need 34%, but they simply won't achieve that. No matter what you might like to think, they are not that big a party.

[-:Undertaker:-]

She also supported the expansion of the EU...

Indeed, and she signed the Single European Act. Whether or not she initially suppported the project is unknown, perhaps she knew of its ultimate intentions and thought they would never come about - either way, towards the end of her term in office she 'woke up' and began the modern day fight that we're still having today over our countrys sovereignty and independence. That's why I forgive her for it.

She was after all active in the Bruges Group (of which the Anti-Federalist League was borne out of, which then morphed into UKIP) well into her later years and remained honourary President of the group.


A deluded view to suggest Labour would leave - whether they were historically against Europe or not, they are not NOW (when it matters!)

I'm not suggesting they would, just that going by history there's more a chance of them pulling us out than the useless Tories.


Also UKIP may "only" need 34%, but they simply won't achieve that. No matter what you might like to think, they are not that big a party.

The then-ruling Liberal Party had the same opinion of the newly-formed Labour Party in the early 1900s.

[AgnesIO]

Indeed, and she signed the Single European Act. Whether or not she initially suppported the project is unknown, perhaps she knew of its ultimate intentions and thought they would never come about - either way, towards the end of her term in office she 'woke up' and began the modern day fight that we're still having today over our countrys sovereignty and independence. That's why I forgive her for it.

She was after all active in the Bruges Group (of which the Anti-Federalist League was borne out of, which then morphed into UKIP) well into her later years and remained honourary President of the group.



I'm not suggesting they would, just that going by history there's more a chance of them pulling us out than the useless Tories.



The then-ruling Liberal Party had the same opinion of the newly-formed Labour Party in the early 1900s.

What does UKIP do when it gains power and leaves Europe though?

The entire aim of the party will be accomplished, and with no other real aims...

[-:Undertaker:-]

What does UKIP do when it gains power and leaves Europe though?

The entire aim of the party will be accomplished, and with no other real aims...

Grammar schools, reform of immigration laws, a sensible energy policy, cut state spending to sustainable levels, simplify the tax code, introduce a two-tier flat tax, slash red tape to get business moving, abolish most quangos, end state funding of lobby groups dressed up as charities, introduce a system of local and national direct democracy based on the Swiss model, end the doctrine of multiculturalism and promote integration, end foreign aid payments, end involvement in foreign wars that are none of our concern, protect civil liberties by opposing extreme anti-terror laws, create an informal 'English parliament' whereby English-only MPs would sit in Westminster to discuss issues relating to England.... that's just a start.

Much more than the Tories anyway, who seem to only want to gain office for the sake of office.

[AgnesIO]

Grammar schools, reform of immigration laws, a sensible energy policy, cut state spending to sustainable levels, simplify the tax code, introduce a two-tier flat tax, slash red tape to get business moving, abolish most quangos, end state funding of lobby groups dressed up as charities, introduce a system of local and national direct democracy based on the Swiss model, end the doctrine of multiculturalism and promote integration, end foreign aid payments, end involvement in foreign wars that are none of our concern, protect civil liberties by opposing extreme anti-terror laws, create an informal 'English parliament' whereby English-only MPs would sit in Westminster to discuss issues relating to England.... that's just a start.

Much more than the Tories anyway, who seem to only want to gain office for the sake of office.

Why doesn't Nigel Farage ever talk about these? All you ever hear him banging on about is the tragedy of Europe...

By the way, I disagree with stopping all foreign aid...

[-:Undertaker:-]

Why doesn't Nigel Farage ever talk about these? All you ever hear him banging on about is the tragedy of Europe...

He often does talk about them - mainly grammar schools, wind turbines, Europe, state spending and gay marriage.

Infact what i'm about to post in this forum, he briefly mentions a few of them.


By the way, I disagree with stopping all foreign aid...

Of course you do - and thats why you back the Conservative Party.

[Grig]

Why doesn't Nigel Farage ever talk about these? All you ever hear him banging on about is the tragedy of Europe...

By the way, I disagree with stopping all foreign aid...

Yes with this "foreign aid" let the country be even more in debt. This is under the disguise of many many things, including intervention.



What does UKIP do when it gains power and leaves Europe though?

The entire aim of the party will be accomplished, and with no other real aims...

You are merely talking about what is heard in the media. I myself am a journalist and I can tell you for a fact, if you actually read the policies in greater detail, they are much more than let's get out of the EU, as Dan pointed out, which I shall not repeat.

[Chippiewill]

ICM: Support for Britain's established parties is splintering as UKIP hits record 18%
Err, the protest vote has always accounted for 20% in the UK.

[Grig]

Err, the protest vote has always accounted for 20% in the UK.

Valid point, but to get a party like UKIP in with that amount is a phenomenal feat. You must also account for the trends; the election is in 2015 and the UKIP have had a consistent gradient upwards. I would predict that they can come close to the 30% threshold.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Err, the protest vote has always accounted for 20% in the UK.

Couldn't one make the argument that every party is essentially a protest vote with most voters voting against another party than voting for one?

Did David Cameron win more seats on a wave of popularity or more so on a loathing of Gordon Brown? I think we both know which one.

[Ardemax]

create an informal 'English parliament' whereby English-only MPs would sit in Westminster to discuss issues relating to England.... that's just a start.

Whilst removing the Scottish and Welsh parliaments... right?


Couldn't one make the argument that every party is essentially a protest vote with most voters voting against another party than voting for one?

It's not a protest vote if there are genuine supporters of the party (Labour/Tories/Lib Dems all had genuine supporters at one point or another). I'm not denying UKIP don't, I'm just saying they need more to make any ground in parliament.

[Chippiewill]

Valid point, but to get a party like UKIP in with that amount is a phenomenal feat. You must also account for the trends; the election is in 2015 and the UKIP have had a consistent gradient upwards. I would predict that they can come close to the 30% threshold.
Two years out from a general election? Polls are meaningless, people are trying to punish their parties.


Couldn't one make the argument that every party is essentially a protest vote with most voters voting against another party than voting for one?

Did David Cameron win more seats on a wave of popularity or more so on a loathing of Gordon Brown? I think we both know which one.
I think it was more a case of, '12 years of these guys and we're doing badly, lets go with the other guys instead' rather than loathing or liking.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Two years out from a general election? Polls are meaningless, people are trying to punish their parties.

In British politics (a stable FPTP system) this is pretty amazing - only historical comparisons that exist in our system are the rise of the Labour Party in the early 1900s and the formation of the SDP in the 1980s.

Best modern day comparisons that exist are the Reform Party of early 1990s Canada and the One Nation Party of Australia in the late 1990s.


I think it was more a case of, '12 years of these guys and we're doing badly, lets go with the other guys instead' rather than loathing or liking.

So it's the same now then, '100 years of these guys and we're doing terribly, lets go with the new kids on the block instead'?

[Chippiewill]

So it's the same now then, '100 years of these guys and we're doing terribly, lets go with the new kids on the block instead'?

Except only 20% of the population is swingable so it won't do very much.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Except only 20% of the population is swingable so it won't do very much.

No idea where you get the swing voter idea from, nothing of the kind. The breakdown of UKIP support shows that the purple voters are more determined to go out for vote than other parties, the voters tend to be older and thus less likely to change their minds and more likely to vote, a sizable chunk of the vote is from people who haven't voted in more than 20 years and the core of UKIP support is mainly made of formerly core (the opposite of 'swing') Conservative voters.

Swing voters are ones in the marginal seats who usually swing between Labour and Conservative hence why they target 100 specific seats at a GE.

[Chippiewill]

The breakdown of UKIP support shows that the purple voters are more determined to go out for vote than other parties
Because they have the most to gain, people aren't going to go out and vote on safe seats. They will at the GE.