Polling: European Elections, Scottish independence referendum & Eastleigh 2015

[-:Undertaker:-]

A few polls that may be of interest came out last night....

European National Elections (May 2014): Neck and neck between Labour and Ukip


http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/408352/ed-miliband-left-nigel-farage.jpg


ICM European elections poll for Sunday Telegraph has...

LAB 30%
UKIP 27%
CON 22%
LDEM 8%

Scottish Independence Referendum (September 2014): Gap between Yes and No continues to close


http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2012/10/15/1350300099266/Saltire-and-union-flag-009.jpg

http://www.ezimba.com/work/140421C/ezimba11652412519000.png

Eastleigh constituency General Election (May 2015): Ukip would take the seat


http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/f910b136-86d5-11e2-b907-00144feabdc0.img


New Survation MoS GE2015 poll of Eastleigh has UKIP in lead - the 1st time in any Westminster seat

UKIP 32% (+4 on 2013 by-election)
CON 28% (+3 on 2013 by-election)
LDEM 27% (-5 on 2013 by-election)
LAB 12% (+2 on 2013 by-election)



...I have to say, the Scottish referendum is starting to worry me.

Thoughts?

[Ardemax]

Scotland won't vote for independence. I'm sure the Scottish majority will be for union closer to the time of the referendum.

[Kardan]

Those Scottish referendum numbers seem to show absolutely no pattern at all, which is slightly worrying, because that suggests people really don't know what to think.

[GommeInc]

Those Scottish referendum numbers seem to show absolutely no pattern at all, which is slightly worrying, because that suggests people really don't know what to think.
Does seem that way. Any programmes about it are starting to use a different language. At first discussions were done jokingly, but now it seems like it is being taken more seriously.

[Mark]

Definitely worrying figures for independence. Living in Scotland it does seem as if YesScotland are gaining a lot of ground locally whereas BetterTogether seem to be doing very little, at least from what I can see. During my summer break I'm going to go out campaigning with BetterTogether as going independent worries me profusely.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Definitely worrying figures for independence. Living in Scotland it does seem as if YesScotland are gaining a lot of ground locally whereas BetterTogether seem to be doing very little, at least from what I can see. During my summer break I'm going to go out campaigning with BetterTogether as going independent worries me profusely.

BetterTogether have really put their foot in it, from what I have read that BetterTogether have been putting out - most of it is untrue and pure scaremongering literally telling the Scots that if they vote for independence then their economy will collapse the following morning. The problem with trying to scare people into supporting the Union is that once people begin to see through it, the entire campaign platform falls apart as it's based on nothing solid. At least the Yes Campaign (which I do not support) have put forward a confident argument.

But yes, the polls will likely close as the day gets nearer... and the worrying thing is that the Yes Campaign will have an advantage in that their supporters will be more likely to turn out as they're more motivated. And that's something that could tip it.

The Quebec 1995 referendum went like this, and it was so damned close: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995

[LiquidLuck.]

Wow those numbers are close.. I guess this means I should start looking for a new unversity..

[Southe,]

Scotland won't vote for independence. I'm sure the Scottish majority will be for union closer to the time of the referendum.

Wouldn't count on that, the more people see through the scaremongering from "Project Fear" there more i see people changing to undecided or even better, Yes.


Those Scottish referendum numbers seem to show absolutely no pattern at all, which is slightly worrying, because that suggests people really don't know what to think.

Poll's are meaningless and that's why i won't acknowledge them regarding the vote. An example i used to someone.
If you took a vote outside a pub that is full of Football A Team fans and asked them if Football Team A or Team B were better what do you think the results would be? Ignore all polls and you will see the % on the day will be different.


Does seem that way. Any programmes about it are starting to use a different language. At first discussions were done jokingly, but now it seems like it is being taken more seriously.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iXRcs-oS0E



Definitely worrying figures for independence. Living in Scotland it does seem as if YesScotland are gaining a lot of ground locally whereas BetterTogether seem to be doing very little, at least from what I can see. During my summer break I'm going to go out campaigning with BetterTogether as going independent worries me profusely.


Why does it worry you profusely? A no vote worries me profusely.





Just a couple things

http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/expresses1.jpg (http://wingsoverscotland.com/barely-worth-the-bother/)

http://wingsoverscotland.com/barely-worth-the-bother/



Now, in response to a Freedom of Information request, the Treasury says it has no record of when Macpherson first warned Osborne against a currency union before the February 11 memo, raising further questions about its credibility.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/currency-furore-over-mystery-of-missing-memos.23890582


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0aAGwLvO1s


http://community.us.playstation.com/t5/image/serverpage/image-id/257423i450CA8BFA1A9D844/image-size/original?v=mpbl-1&px=-1

[-:Undertaker:-]

Poll's are meaningless and that's why i won't acknowledge them regarding the vote. An example i used to someone.
If you took a vote outside a pub that is full of Football A Team fans and asked them if Football Team A or Team B were better what do you think the results would be? Ignore all polls and you will see the % on the day will be different.

That's why all scientific/professional polls are done using weighting which takes into considerations over demographics/likely to vote etc. The polling just because it has you behind shouldn't have you as a Scottish nationalist dismiss it anyway - a gap of 10% or so compared with what the gap was a year ago (and we've still got to go the entire summer until September) should, if anything, give you hope.

You are behind in the polling, but it's not at all impossible for your side to win. Polls usually narrow nearer the time anyway.


Now, in response to a Freedom of Information request, the Treasury says it has no record of when Macpherson first warned Osborne against a currency union before the February 11 memo, raising further questions about its credibility.

However the British Government says it doesn't want a currency union, the fact of the matter is that if we don't want a currency union with an independent Kingdom of Scotland then we don't have to enter into one. The United Kingdom will be the successor state, not Scotland.

The same applies for membership of international bodies (UN Security Council), debt, defence agreements, trade agreements and so on.

[Southe,]

That's why all scientific/professional polls are done using weighting which takes into considerations over demographics/likely to vote etc. The polling just because it has you behind shouldn't have you as a Scottish nationalist dismiss it anyway - a gap of 10% or so compared with what the gap was a year ago (and we've still got to go the entire summer until September) should, if anything, give you hope.

You are behind in the polling, but it's not at all impossible for your side to win. Polls usually narrow nearer the time anyway.

I wouldn't acknowledge a poll even if it had Yes in the lead, i don't need hope. I'm 95% positive that Yes will win, every time B2G speaks the more i see people talking a step back and reconsidering there stance. All the lies and scaremongering, the fact Cameron says he won't debate with Salmond and in my view B2G have not laid out a positive plan on why people should say no, it's always piggybacking off what Yes say and telling them No.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I wouldn't acknowledge a poll even if it had Yes in the lead, i don't need hope. I'm 95% positive that Yes will win, every time B2G speaks the more i see people talking a step back and reconsidering there stance. All the lies and scaremongering, the fact Cameron says he won't debate with Salmond and in my view B2G have not laid out a positive plan on why people should say no, it's always piggybacking off what Yes say and telling them No.

Well as much as a British unionist as I am, I would agree with a lot of what you've said. I said from the beginning that this Unionist campaign should be conducted on what a nation really is: culture, rather than a series of arrangements that make us better off in terms of GDP. A proud people ultimately will not surrender their self-determination for a few extra GDP points, nor should they.

All that said on whether Scotland leaves or not, it's given me great hope for when the time eventually comes in regards to an EU referendum because they're going to use very much the same scaremongering arguments they've used in Scotland as a method to keep us in the EU. :P

[Kardan]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say I'm 95% sure that Scotland will say no.

[Southe,]

However the British Government says it doesn't want a currency union, the fact of the matter is that if we don't want a currency union with an independent Kingdom of Scotland then we don't have to enter into one. The United Kingdom will be the successor state, not Scotland.

The same applies for membership of international bodies (UN Security Council), debt, defence agreements, trade agreements and so on.

Didn't see your edit earlier.
It's not that they said they don't want it, they have just said no and it wouldn't work. Then asked about there proof they have none. If they want Scotland to take on part of the debt which legally there not obliged to do so and UK government have said they retain 100% of the debt. Soon as Yes wins they will allow the pound, people can see through there scaremongering.


Well as much as a British unionist as I am, I would agree with a lot of what you've said. I said from the beginning that this Unionist campaign should be conducted on what a nation really is: culture, rather than a series of arrangements that make us better off in terms of GDP. A proud people ultimately will not surrender their self-determination for a few extra GDP points, nor should they.

All that said on whether Scotland leaves or not, it's given me great hope for when the time eventually comes in regards to an EU referendum because they're going to use very much the same scaremongering arguments they've used in Scotland as a method to keep us in the EU. :P

I've seen lots of people ask if Newcastle etc can get Independence from London. London is the problem and the muppets the English vote in charge (Since Scotland vote is meaningless). Also regarding EU I personally don't want to be part of the UK for purely selfish/silly reasons. But i can't stand Nigel Farrage and UKIP so I'm glad he got boo'ed out of Edinburgh.


I'm going to go out on a limb here and say I'm 95% sure that Scotland will say no.

http://static.gamespot.com/uploads/original/1108/11088530/2451016-1176411500-not-s.jpg


Regarding this morning,
Had a lady at my work tell me about the other day when i was off about an English lady saying if she had the vote she would be voting yes as well.

Why any Scottish person would willingly choose to vote No is beyond me. Love to hear there reasons apart from being a wee scaredy

[dbgtz]

Didn't see your edit earlier.
It's not that they said they don't want it, they have just said no and it wouldn't work. Then asked about there proof they have none. If they want Scotland to take on part of the debt which legally there not obliged to do so and UK government have said they retain 100% of the debt. Soon as Yes wins they will allow the pound, people can see through there scaremongering.


Yes but borrowing rates will probably rise for Scotland and rUK will look like angels (ok that bit isn't really meant to be serious).



I've seen lots of people ask if Newcastle etc can get Independence from London. London is the problem and the muppets the English vote in charge (Since Scotland vote is meaningless). Also regarding EU I personally don't want to be part of the UK for purely selfish/silly reasons. But i can't stand Nigel Farrage and UKIP so I'm glad he got boo'ed out of Edinburgh.


(nicked from a Reddit comment)
"We want independence from the UK because we don't get fair recognition and most of the focus is on the City of London"
"In order to ensure stability we will be tying ourselves to the City of London"

I wish people would stop saying ******* Scottish vote is meaningless. You could cut any group of 5 million(?) and it would make little to no bloody difference in result. Whenever that argument or the "WE DIDN'T VOTE FOR A CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT" is pulled it makes them sound like they have some special entitlement or something. Go back to the Labour government, how many Scottish people didn't vote Labour??? 60% in 2005. It's not even a bloody Conservative government either. I'd go on but I need to shower.



http://static.gamespot.com/uploads/original/1108/11088530/2451016-1176411500-not-s.jpg


Regarding this morning,
Had a lady at my work tell me about the other day when i was off about an English lady saying if she had the vote she would be voting yes as well.

Why any Scottish person would willingly choose to vote No is beyond me. Love to hear there reasons apart from being a wee scaredy

Because you'd have a significantly reduced defence, have no real plan set out before the actual vote (just a bunch of possibilities), have virtually no infrastructure for many things at the start (so large costs involved), threats from large businesses who would move to England, etc.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Didn't see your edit earlier.
It's not that they said they don't want it, they have just said no and it wouldn't work. Then asked about there proof they have none.

Er yes it does, the majority of Scots - for now - want to retain the Union. In poll after poll.


If they want Scotland to take on part of the debt which legally there not obliged to do so and UK government have said they retain 100% of the debt. Soon as Yes wins they will allow the pound, people can see through there scaremongering.

Well no that is true, but it's also true that that would mean a default on your debts which would make you an international laughing stock and would make it very hard for you to lend on the international bond markets. You can also hypothetically keep the Pound Sterling regardless of what we say (just as the UK could adopt the US Dollar tomorrow without the US appproving) but you wouldn't automatically, if at all, have a right to decide monetary policy: that power would remain with the Bank of England and the Brtiish Government.

If you want independence then stop trying to hang on to the British currency and take responsibility for your debts.


I've seen lots of people ask if Newcastle etc can get Independence from London. London is the problem and the muppets the English vote in charge (Since Scotland vote is meaningless).

I'd agree that we vote muppets in charge, but Scotland has a far worse record than England in voting for morons. 41 Scottish Westminster seats are Labour seats and your two main parties are the spendthrift SNP and Labour Party.

The north of England can hardly complain either, they continuously vote Labour in large numbers.


Also regarding EU I personally don't want to be part of the UK for purely selfish/silly reasons. But i can't stand Nigel Farrage and UKIP so I'm glad he got boo'ed out of Edinburgh.

Yeah, he was boo'd in Edinburgh by a load of Scottish far-left nuts.... but he's returning very soon you'll be glad to hear. :P


Why any Scottish person would willingly choose to vote No is beyond me. Love to hear there reasons apart from being a wee scaredy

If that Scot feels proud to be British and feels Britain is his country then it's not that hard to understand really, is it?