FINAL Euro Polling Projections

[-:Undertaker:-]

The final YouGov for the European Elections has just been released this minute, and the final poll of the campaign....


http://www.ezimba.com/work/140522C/ezimba14131968527500.png

The final TNS poll has...

Ukip 31%
Labour 28%
Conservatives 21%
Liberal Democrats 7%

The final Survation poll has...

Ukip 32%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 23%
Liberal Democrats 9%

The final ComRes poll has...

Ukip 33%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 20%
Liberal Democrats 7%

Of course, there are caveats to this polling which will determine the results which will will only hear on Sunday night due to the wait for the Italians to finish voting on the Sunday. A few things that could swing the result are: 'An Independence from Europe' could cream a percentage or two off the Ukip vote. A high turnout in Labour council areas could help Labour. Bad weather in parts of the country could help Ukip who's voters are more motivated to turn out and vote. The postal vote will also have a large effect - I asked Mike Smithson over Twitter how many voted via the post in 2009 and he said 25% odd, this time it could have been around 50%.... meaning they were posted whilst Ukip were at the 35% mark but then on the other hand Labour have a strong postal voting organisation.

So there you have it. There's a few historical things to note depending on the results...

IF Ukip top the polls, it will be the first time in over 100 years that neither the Tories or Labour have won a national election. Truly historic.

IF the Tories come third in the polls, it will be the first time (ever?) that the Tories come third in a national election.

Voting takes place tomorrow from 7am to 10pm across the United Kingdom, with certain areas holding Local Elections too.

Anddddddd that's all folks.

EDIT: I read that there is a final Opinium poll due out tonight (apparently) which I will post if I see it released.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Final Opinium Poll just released...

Ukip 32%
Labour - 25%
Conservatives - 21%
Liberal Democrats - 6%
Greens - 6%

It'll be interesting to see which pollster and which methods to measure Ukip support will be proven correct.

In 2009 I *think* ComRes was most accurate.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BoMLssbCMAA-bTL.png:large

[GommeInc]

I'm amazed the Greens are not getting that many. Apparently there are minor social media campaigns that a real protest vote shouldn't be UKIP but the Greens. Although that stops when nuclear power is mentioned and people realised that nuclear is really the only viable option for us :P

[-:Undertaker:-]

I'm amazed the Greens are not getting that many. Apparently there are minor social media campaigns that a real protest vote shouldn't be UKIP but the Greens. Although that stops when nuclear power is mentioned and people realised that nuclear is really the only viable option for us :P

Yes, I don't actually mind pro-EU people voting Green... I mean I disagree with them on 99.9% of everything but at least they're willing to hold a referendum on the EU despite being pro-membership of it, which is more than can be said for the scheming liars in the three cartel parties. :P

The problem with the Greens is always mobilising their vote: they tend to rely a lot on students, and students have very low turnout rates.

[GommeInc]

Yes, I don't actually mind pro-EU people voting Green... I mean I disagree with them on 99.9% of everything but at least they're willing to hold a referendum on the EU despite being pro-membership of it, which is more than can be said for the scheming liars in the three cartel parties. :P

The problem with the Greens is always mobilising their vote: they tend to rely a lot on students, and students have very low turnout rates.
Yeah, and the only ones to vote are the really active ones who are surprisingly few in number. It doesn't help it's being held in the middle of the exam period, either.