-:Undertaker:-
06-06-2014, 01:45 AM
http://news.sky.com/story/1276479/newark-by-election-farage-concedes-defeat
RUMOUR: Tories hold Newark seat as blue assault pays off - Ukip come in second with their best by-election result so far, and Labour vote decreases
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/06/article-2650233-1E809DBB00000578-700_634x422.jpg
Attention: Ukip's Newark by-election candidate Roger Helmer (pictured centre with rosette) and party leader Nigel Farage, were the centre of a media scrum in the town ahead of the vote
Counting is under way in the Newark by-election in Nottinghamshire, where voters have been deciding on a replacement for former Tory MP Patrick Mercer.
Sky News Political Editor Adam Boulton, who is in Newark, said: "Early indications from the UKIP people at the count are that they don't think they have quite made it.
"(But) it might be another good second place, as we've seen at previous by-elections this parliament. Their best performance was getting 27%."
As he arrived at the count, UKIP leader Nigel Farage told Sky News he thinks the Conservative party will hold the seat.
However, he insisted the party had made a significant dent in the Tory vote.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/06/article-2650233-1E68378D00000578-544_634x412.jpg
Support: The Tories had as many as 100 MPs on the ground on polling day, with Prime Minister David Cameron making four high profile visits in the run-up to the by-election (pictured)
He said: "I think we've done well. I think it will be our best ever by-election performance. I think whatever Roger's efforts we're not probably going to quite overturn a lead the Conservatives had over us in the last election here of 25,000 votes. It'll be reduced quite a lot."
He added: "Well you know the Conservatives were 25,000 votes ahead of us here in 2010 and it looks like that's going to be reduced to 2,500 so for us it will be our strongest ever by-election performance. The people's army is getting more professional and better at what it does."
UKIP decided to field a candidate after their strong showing in the European and local elections.
Mr Farage's party chose former Tory MEP Roger Helmer as their candidate.
The Tories chose Robert Jenrick, a director at famous auction house Christie's, as the man to hopefully hold on to the East Midlands seat.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/06/article-2650233-1E80888A00000578-722_634x406.jpg
Back to basics: Ukip candidate Roger Helmer and Ukip leader Nigel Farage (centre) met with the assembled media over a pint of beer while they were campaigning in Newark ahead of the by-election
However, in the run-up to the poll, he was criticised by Roger Helmer over claims he owns three homes collectively worth £5m.
Mr Helmer said the 32-year-old was "charming" but out of touch with ordinary voters.
Chris Grayling, the Secretary of State for Justice, defended his "successful" Tory colleague and said UKIP were using desperate tactics.
Labour's candidate in the town is Michael Payne, while David Watts is running for the Liberal Democrats.
The by-election was triggered after Mr Mercer quit following allegations he took cash for asking questions in Parliament. He won by 16,152 votes from Labour in 2010
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/75186000/jpg/_75186872_75186871.jpg
Labour leader Ed Miliband in Newark
The returning officer in Newark told Sky News he hopes to have the by-election result sometime around 3am.
Turnout has been announced as 52.8%.
There have been 11 candidates in total standing in the Nottinghamshire constituency.
They are: Paul Baggaley (Ind), David Bishop (Bus Pass Elvis), Nick The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony), Andy Hayes (Ind), Roger Helmer (UKIP), Robert Jenrick (Con), David Kirwan (Green), Michael Payne (Lab), **** Rodgers (Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britain's Money), David Watts (Lib Dem), Lee Woods (Patriotic Socialist).
Although the results are not yet in, we can make assumptions on what we expect the results to be.
Conservatives: A good night for them in that they held the seat, although considering the Tory majority (it's the 40th-something safe seat for the Tories) has been severely dented will come as a blow... especially considering how unusually for a by-election in a safe seat it is for a Prime Minister having to visit four times and all Conservative MPs being summoned to Newark with 1,000 Tory activists being brought in. Nevertheless a record has been broken tonight: this is the first by-election seat the Tories have held whilst in office since 1989.
Ukip: A good night for Ukip in that the purples will likely have their best ever by-election result thus far (beating the 2013 Eastleigh result when the party scored a record 28%) which will suggest that the purples are now making serious headway into Westminster parliamentary politics. That said, it will come as a disappointment to Nigel Farage that the swing from the Tories and Labour has not been sufficent enough to land Ukip it's first Westminister seat when the SDP in the 1980s managed to achieve greater swings.
Labour: A bad night for Labour if the projections are true in that their vote share has actually decreased on the 2010 General Election and that as the opposition they should be making gains in their vote share with less than a year to go before the General Election. Newark is also a seat they won in the 1997 Blair landslide, which, although was a one-off event... in the context of by-elections Labour should be putting up a very strong challenge at this stage in the electoral cycle instead of being beaten into 3rd place by a party with no MPs as of yet (Ukip).
Liberal Democrats: No comment required.
Survation noted in their final poll of Newark (which was CON 42 // UKIP 27 // LAB 22 // LDEM 4) the following....
If the figures in our final poll are borne out, the overall swing from Conservatives to UKIP will have been about 18 points – enough for UKIP to capture Conservative seats elsewhere in the country if repeated in constituencies with smaller Conservative majorities.
In the European Parliament elections last month, UKIP scored 32% in the Newark & Sherwood district. Managing to come within 5 points of that in a Westminster Parliament vote would support previous research by ComRes that a large majority of those who voted UKIP in the European election will stick with the party when it comes to Westminster elections.
I'll post the result if I am still up, it's expected within the next fifteen or so minutes.
Thoughts?
RUMOUR: Tories hold Newark seat as blue assault pays off - Ukip come in second with their best by-election result so far, and Labour vote decreases
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/06/article-2650233-1E809DBB00000578-700_634x422.jpg
Attention: Ukip's Newark by-election candidate Roger Helmer (pictured centre with rosette) and party leader Nigel Farage, were the centre of a media scrum in the town ahead of the vote
Counting is under way in the Newark by-election in Nottinghamshire, where voters have been deciding on a replacement for former Tory MP Patrick Mercer.
Sky News Political Editor Adam Boulton, who is in Newark, said: "Early indications from the UKIP people at the count are that they don't think they have quite made it.
"(But) it might be another good second place, as we've seen at previous by-elections this parliament. Their best performance was getting 27%."
As he arrived at the count, UKIP leader Nigel Farage told Sky News he thinks the Conservative party will hold the seat.
However, he insisted the party had made a significant dent in the Tory vote.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/06/article-2650233-1E68378D00000578-544_634x412.jpg
Support: The Tories had as many as 100 MPs on the ground on polling day, with Prime Minister David Cameron making four high profile visits in the run-up to the by-election (pictured)
He said: "I think we've done well. I think it will be our best ever by-election performance. I think whatever Roger's efforts we're not probably going to quite overturn a lead the Conservatives had over us in the last election here of 25,000 votes. It'll be reduced quite a lot."
He added: "Well you know the Conservatives were 25,000 votes ahead of us here in 2010 and it looks like that's going to be reduced to 2,500 so for us it will be our strongest ever by-election performance. The people's army is getting more professional and better at what it does."
UKIP decided to field a candidate after their strong showing in the European and local elections.
Mr Farage's party chose former Tory MEP Roger Helmer as their candidate.
The Tories chose Robert Jenrick, a director at famous auction house Christie's, as the man to hopefully hold on to the East Midlands seat.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/06/article-2650233-1E80888A00000578-722_634x406.jpg
Back to basics: Ukip candidate Roger Helmer and Ukip leader Nigel Farage (centre) met with the assembled media over a pint of beer while they were campaigning in Newark ahead of the by-election
However, in the run-up to the poll, he was criticised by Roger Helmer over claims he owns three homes collectively worth £5m.
Mr Helmer said the 32-year-old was "charming" but out of touch with ordinary voters.
Chris Grayling, the Secretary of State for Justice, defended his "successful" Tory colleague and said UKIP were using desperate tactics.
Labour's candidate in the town is Michael Payne, while David Watts is running for the Liberal Democrats.
The by-election was triggered after Mr Mercer quit following allegations he took cash for asking questions in Parliament. He won by 16,152 votes from Labour in 2010
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/75186000/jpg/_75186872_75186871.jpg
Labour leader Ed Miliband in Newark
The returning officer in Newark told Sky News he hopes to have the by-election result sometime around 3am.
Turnout has been announced as 52.8%.
There have been 11 candidates in total standing in the Nottinghamshire constituency.
They are: Paul Baggaley (Ind), David Bishop (Bus Pass Elvis), Nick The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony), Andy Hayes (Ind), Roger Helmer (UKIP), Robert Jenrick (Con), David Kirwan (Green), Michael Payne (Lab), **** Rodgers (Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britain's Money), David Watts (Lib Dem), Lee Woods (Patriotic Socialist).
Although the results are not yet in, we can make assumptions on what we expect the results to be.
Conservatives: A good night for them in that they held the seat, although considering the Tory majority (it's the 40th-something safe seat for the Tories) has been severely dented will come as a blow... especially considering how unusually for a by-election in a safe seat it is for a Prime Minister having to visit four times and all Conservative MPs being summoned to Newark with 1,000 Tory activists being brought in. Nevertheless a record has been broken tonight: this is the first by-election seat the Tories have held whilst in office since 1989.
Ukip: A good night for Ukip in that the purples will likely have their best ever by-election result thus far (beating the 2013 Eastleigh result when the party scored a record 28%) which will suggest that the purples are now making serious headway into Westminster parliamentary politics. That said, it will come as a disappointment to Nigel Farage that the swing from the Tories and Labour has not been sufficent enough to land Ukip it's first Westminister seat when the SDP in the 1980s managed to achieve greater swings.
Labour: A bad night for Labour if the projections are true in that their vote share has actually decreased on the 2010 General Election and that as the opposition they should be making gains in their vote share with less than a year to go before the General Election. Newark is also a seat they won in the 1997 Blair landslide, which, although was a one-off event... in the context of by-elections Labour should be putting up a very strong challenge at this stage in the electoral cycle instead of being beaten into 3rd place by a party with no MPs as of yet (Ukip).
Liberal Democrats: No comment required.
Survation noted in their final poll of Newark (which was CON 42 // UKIP 27 // LAB 22 // LDEM 4) the following....
If the figures in our final poll are borne out, the overall swing from Conservatives to UKIP will have been about 18 points – enough for UKIP to capture Conservative seats elsewhere in the country if repeated in constituencies with smaller Conservative majorities.
In the European Parliament elections last month, UKIP scored 32% in the Newark & Sherwood district. Managing to come within 5 points of that in a Westminster Parliament vote would support previous research by ComRes that a large majority of those who voted UKIP in the European election will stick with the party when it comes to Westminster elections.
I'll post the result if I am still up, it's expected within the next fifteen or so minutes.
Thoughts?