LIVE: Scottish Independence Referendum Results

[-:Undertaker:-]

It's out in ten minutes, YouGov for the Sunday Times.... and a PanelBase poll is out later apparently.


http://www.thecommentator.com/system/articles/inner_pictures/000/003/774/original/The-projection-of-the-British-flag-on-the-parliament-building-in-honor-of-the-start-of-the-Olympics..jpg?1371125940


Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 5h

London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs



Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 5h

Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband.


Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 5h

Scottish poll reflects world-wide disillusion with political leaders and old establishments leaving openings for libertarians and far left.


Paddy Power Politics @pppolitics · 2h

Scots now just 9/4 to vote YES to independence - the shortest the price has ever been http://pdy.pr/ju5MzE #indyref


Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 10h

William Hill reporting that a customer in Lisbon has today placed his 700th bet on Scotland voting NO

I'm worried. :(

[Kardan]

A shock poll? So for me that means one side getting like 80% of the votes. Probably going to be a 'shock' poll where Yes is like, a percentage point behind No or something.

[scottish]

Exciting times

[-:Undertaker:-]

YouGov/SundayTimes -

YES (51%)
NO (49%)

This is HUGE.

What are the IDIOTS who've brought us to this stage now going to do?

My suggestion would be to have the Queen make a speech days before the referendum. It's serious.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw4HZ0kIQAA9ohJ.jpg


A shock poll? So for me that means one side getting like 80% of the votes. Probably going to be a 'shock' poll where Yes is like, a percentage point behind No or something.

The political context obviously has passed you, until now NO has been ahead throughout the entire campaign.

[scottish]

We're getting there

[Lewis]

I can't wait for the actual outcome. I'm certainly looking forward to the 18th of September and beyond!

[Kardan]

Damn, 3% off. I don't think it's that surprising given the TV debate, and considering there's still a significant proportion of people that vote 'I don't know' - I do think it will be down to the day itself.

[xxMATTGxx]

Pretty **** eh

[lemons]

:( im excited for 18th to

[-:Undertaker:-]

Damn, 3% off. I don't think it's that surprising given the TV debate, and considering there's still a significant proportion of people that vote 'I don't know' - I do think it will be down to the day itself.

The issue is that according to the YouGov data, all groups apart from the over 60's are switching over to Salmond in huge numbers. I just saw one analysis of the poll which says that Labour voters have gone from 18% last month backing independence to 35% odd today. If YES has this momentum over the next twelve days then that will likely swing Don't Know voters towards YES.

It's a disaster. If Scotland leaves, this will be a bigger blow to Britain since the Suez Crisis. As I said, get the Queen to intervene NOW.

- - - Updated - - -


Pretty **** eh

It actually makes me feel ill.

[Kardan]

Might want to see a doctor about that.

- - - Updated - - -

Surely the best plan for the 'No' campaign is to get all the people that 'Don't care/Have no intention to vote' to go and vote. Surely the people that don't plan on voting don't care enough for independence...

[-:Undertaker:-]

Might want to see a doctor about that.

- - - Updated - - -

Surely the best plan for the 'No' campaign is to get all the people that 'Don't care/Have no intention to vote' to go and vote. Surely the people that don't plan on voting don't care enough for independence...

But how do you manage to convince those voters when you can't even hold on to the voters you already had?

They've just blown a 20%+ lead within a matter of weeks.

[dbgtz]

On the plus side, I'll win a few quid on my bet :)

[-:Undertaker:-]

From the twitter feed of the Sunday Times political editor.


Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 8m

Palace sources have told Sunday Times the Queen "is a unionist" and they now have great fears about independence


Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 6m

Tory MPs from all wings of the party tell Sunday Times they think Cameron they will have to resign if Scotland votes for independence


Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 5m

Two Tory ministers have told MPs they feel they would have to resign if there is a Yes vote in Scotland. Cabinet members think Dave might go


Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 5m

Several Tory MPs expected to publicly demand the prime minister's resignation if there is a Yes vote in Scotland


Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2m

How has Salmond turned it around? By 60 to 30% voters say Yes campaign has been positive, by 60 to 31% they say No camp negative


Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 18s

A minister of the crown texts me about the poll. "****"


Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 36s

Most polls are meaningless but this one is going to cause meltdown in Westminster.

[Kardan]

But how do you manage to convince those voters when you can't even hold on to the voters you already had?

They've just blown a 20%+ lead within a matter of weeks.

I guess the government need to start buying the independence votes off of eBay then.

Are you genuinely surprised that 'Yes' could win? I mean, I agree it would suck completely, but I've never thought it outrageous that 'Yes' could win.

[lemons]

bit off topic but does anyone think there will be riots in scotland if there is a no vote

or if there is a yes vote i guess

[-:Undertaker:-]

I guess the government need to start buying the independence votes off of eBay then.

Are you genuinely surprised that 'Yes' could win? I mean, I agree it would suck completely, but I've never thought it outrageous that 'Yes' could win.

I'm not surprised, i'm immensely saddened by it... although I have been warning for months that the ridiculous scaremongering by the NO campaign would backfire as it was so transparent and false as it's very similar to the bs we're fed 24/7 over leaving the EU. I have just seen others on Twitter now suggesting what I just said earlier: it may be time for the Palace to have the Queen make a last minute intervention in this.

Just when I thought I couldn't loathe the Labour Party anymore and they've brought my country on the point of dissolution.

- - - Updated - - -


bit off topic but does anyone think there will be riots in scotland if there is a no vote

or if there is a yes vote i guess

I'd think that would be more likely in Northern Ireland.

[Kardan]

If Cameron did leave, would we have a leadership contest for the conservative party (and therefore for PM, as 1990) or would Nick Clegg guide us through the brand new world of ***, the former United Kingdom.

[-:Undertaker:-]

If Cameron did leave, would we have a leadership contest for the conservative party (and therefore for PM) or would Nick Clegg guide us through the brand new world of ***, the former United Kingdom.

Convention states that PM comes from majority coalition party.

The bigger question and issue is if Scotland does go, there could very well be a constitutional crisis in that Scotland wouldn't actually go independent until 2016 yet we'd still have 50+ Scottish MPs, mainly Labour, sitting in Westminster voting on UK matters - as well as the 2015 General Election.

[buttons]

i feel sad for u people who genuinely like us as one.... it's never been important for me to stay seeing as ive always seen england and scotland as hating each other and made to feel inferior for living here as compared to england. the debate has just furthered this belief for me as the no campaign never tells us why we are better with u, only why we're not good enough to go alone. it's sad bc people seem to love britain as it is but i just can't.


just gotta wait and see what does happen but either way there will be disappointment for a lot of people.

[Kardan]

Convention states that PM comes from majority coalition party.

The bigger question and issue is if Scotland does go, there could very well be a constitutional crisis in that Scotland wouldn't actually go independent until 2016 yet we'd still have 50+ Scottish MPs, mainly Labour, sitting in Westminster voting on UK matters - as well as the 2015 General Election.

Poor Cleggy.

And at least that'll give you ammunition for the next 5 years: "Labour only won the election because Scotland wouldn't bugger off"

[-:Undertaker:-]

Poor Cleggy.

And at least that'll give you ammunition for the next 5 years: "Labour only won the election because Scotland wouldn't bugger off"

I've said over and over again that I would rather endure 30 years of continuous Labour Government than see my country disintegrate.

Country > politics. Always.

[scottish]

I don't think the queen would have that much effect.

[Lewis]

I don't think the queen would have that much effect.

Agreed. I personally wouldn't even care to listen to what she has to say.

[sex]

if scotland vote to leave i wonder will that give sein fein an opportunity to look for a vote in NI

i hope they stay in the UK tho

also does the name change from united kingdom since it not all united if scotland leave lol

- - - Updated - - -

kingdom of england, wales and northern ireland lol imagine

[lemons]

David Cameron singing Taylor Swift brilliant


https://www.youtube.com/embed/0flxQCmb5oY

[xxMATTGxx]

if scotland vote to leave i wonder will that give sein fein an opportunity to look for a vote in NI

i hope they stay in the UK tho

also does the name change from united kingdom since it not all united if scotland leave lol

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kingdom of england, wales and northern ireland lol imagine

Pretty sure we are keeping the same name and flag

[-:Undertaker:-]

Panelbase Poll -

YES 44%
NO 48%
UNDECIDED 8%

Here's a look at all the pollsters.... YouGov seems strangely out of place with this one, but there's certainly a shift.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw6ZXDPIIAA3pHy.jpg

[A4R0N]

donut panic

[Chippiewill]

This is definitely a significant poll and indicative of a shift, however I'd be sceptical of it's actual result until we get a second poll due to the factor of over-testing.

[Lewis]

so which one is more accurate?

[Chippiewill]

so which one is more accurate?

From a methodological perspective I would imagine Yougov to be more accurate.

[scottish]

Hope so, more exciting in that case.

[-:Undertaker:-]

so which one is more accurate?

We won't know until the day obviously, referendums in themselves are harder to predict accurately as you haven't got as much past data. There's an ICM apparently out soon, and it's a highly respected pollster, so it may give us more of a clue when we look at the recent three.

Professor John Curtice's poll of polls currently has it split at NO: 53% and YES: 47% - http://www.scotcen.org.uk/blog/maybe-yes,-maybe-no-yougov-and-panelbase-polls


http://www.scotcen.org.uk/media/541213/Poll-of-polls-070914_500x548.jpg

[wixard]

i want them to get independence just to see how it goes

[Chippiewill]

From a methodological perspective I would imagine Yougov to be more accurate.

Just checked out Panelbase, it seems they're an opt-in website survey service. I wouldn't trust their result as anything other than a vague guess.

[-:Undertaker:-]

From a methodological perspective I would imagine Yougov to be more accurate.

Interesting from Mike Smithson though, that YouGov was most out in the AV 2011 referendum. Apple and oranges I know, but still..

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/508349511966941184/photo/1


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw4FL6gIMAAVUZ5.png

[Chippiewill]

Dan, I wouldn't expect you to be so susceptible to cherry-picking.

[buttons]

forget what the polls are saying. we can't predict especially as there's many still undecided. i bet some of them go and just make their mind up when they're there. we still have a few days left for people to make up their mind as well.
i wonder how much have went from yes voting to no voting and vice versa. ive personally always been against it but im swaying more towards yes. however im not going to be at home to vote so my opinion doesn't matter.

[Kardan]

Surely -:Undertaker:-; the poll you posted, the poll of polls is pretty much useless, I mean, it's taking an average of loads of polls - but surely the most recent polls hold more truth than the older polls?

[GommeInc]

I'm all for the Courts to get involved to put a stop to the referendum as it seems almost unconstitutional to hold a referendum of such a calibre without any real debate or discussion. Two TV debates which were not really any more than two egos fighting isn't helpful. Many Scots voters do not know who to vote for because they do not have the information to make a well informed choice.

I'm still wondering if the monetary union debate is still going. If they still want that they may as well not vote for independence as their economy will effectively remain property of the UK or Great Britain as a whole :P

[Chippiewill]

Surely -:Undertaker:-; the poll you posted, the poll of polls is pretty much useless, I mean, it's taking an average of loads of polls - but surely the most recent polls hold more truth than the older polls?

The polling companies have systematic biases. By having a poll of polls of the latest poll from each polling company you reduce the bias. It's not perfect, but neither is polling.

[sex]

does anyone know if they vote yes and during the 18 month period where they are sorting things out and relalise CRAP this was a mistake can they change their minds lol

does Scotland even have its own big bank

[scottish]

does anyone know if they vote yes and during the 18 month period where they are sorting things out and relalise CRAP this was a mistake can they change their minds lol

does Scotland even have its own big bank

no, if we vote independence then there'll be no going back.

and we have Royal Bank of Scotland + Bank of Scotland etc if that's what you mean?

[Kardan]

With the currency union managed by the Bank of England :P

[Michael]

There probably is a lot of people hushing away from what they are truly going to vote, the Yes clan have been pretty ruthless.

[buttons]

There probably is a lot of people hushing away from what they are truly going to vote, the Yes clan have been pretty ruthless.
i have seen 'better together' scots and non-scots a like being ruthless as well tho

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i wôuld rather say am voting no than yes based on the reactions iv PERSONALLY seen
like some guy asked me in england what we are voting and I said um probably not cause I know the reaction

[sex]

no, if we vote independence then there'll be no going back.

and we have Royal Bank of Scotland + Bank of Scotland etc if that's what you mean?

RBS is owned by the UK cause they was bailed out and BOS is owned by lloyds which is also owned somewhat by the uk
so there isnt a bank rly thats just scottish

isthat the only 2 or is there no 100% scottish owned bank to manage a currency or economy since both have been bailed out by the UK

[MKR&*42]

I don't really know why, but I really don't want Scotland to go at all. I much prefer the UK as it is right now and there certainly are a lot of unanswered qs surrounding this entire situation. I think it'll be such a close call though.

[GommeInc]

With the currency union managed by the Bank of England :P
And the Royal Bank of Scotland also subsequently owned by the Bank of England :P

[-:Undertaker:-]

Yikes.

Lord Ashcroft tonight reporting the latest TNS-BMRB poll as...

YES 50%
NO 50%

If you include don't knows then NO is ahead by 1%.

[lemons]

this is really exciting

[sex]

its sad that the vote could be won by as much as 0.1%

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http://i.imgur.com/LTfUNHK.jpg

[-:Undertaker:-]

its sad that the vote could be won by as much as 0.1%

The Quebec 1995 referendum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995#Opinion_polling) on independence from Canada was 50.58% NO and 49.42% YES. :P

Interesting to note though that in that referendum (not saying it will happen here, different circumstances and different pollsters) but prior to the Quebec referendum the polls had YES ahead by 3% to 7%.. yet that didn't happen on the day. One explanation could be that the undecided voters usually side with the status quo on the day of the referendum.

[dbgtz]

no, if we vote independence then there'll be no going back.

and we have Royal Bank of Scotland + Bank of Scotland etc if that's what you mean?

RBS may have to move it's HQ to England though so...

[-:Undertaker:-]

Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch

Salmond's private polls predict 54-46 Yes. Desperate last ten days ahead for both sides. Most powerful media, BBC, totally biased for No.


Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Sep 7

Scotland. Now southern parties all promising much new autonomy if vote is No. Problem for them now is credibility. Also too late.


I'm sorry, but this is pissing me off now. Labour and the Conservatives are now promising more devolution (and probably more case for Scotland) in the event that they vote No. Not only is it desperate at the last minute, but it's terribly unfair - why would Scottish MPs continue to be allowed to vote on English-only matters when we don't get a say in the affairs of the Scottish parliament? Anyone with an ounce of common sense could have seen this when the traitors in the Labour Party introduced devolution in the 1990s in order to keep control of their private fiefdoms, and now look at yet another constitutional **** up these idiots have led us into. And where is the Conservative and UNIONIST Party in this? Nowhere! USELESS.

If I had my own way I would have held referendums in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland giving the simple choice: return to a unitary state with one Westminster parliament, or have independence. That would have settled the matter clearly, either way.

[scottish]

Then you'd have 4 independent countries :P

[-:Undertaker:-]

Then you'd have 4 independent countries :P

Then so be it.

Had we had a patriotic major party arguing for the Union over the past decade then maybe we'd have a chance of saving it, instead we've had constant bribes by Labour to Scotland and Wales so that when it is out of power it can retain control in those areas. Oh how that's backfired on them.

The Westminister three stooge parties showing yet again their incompetence. And that's without going into the 20%+ lead they've pissed up the wall.

[Lewis]

If the undecided voters so far do end up voting, I think the majority of them will want independence, raising the likelihood of getting it. Almost every undecided voter I've met has said that if they were going to vote, it'd more likely be yes--this is online and offline. Meh, I'm not sure but it seems that way anyway.

Same goes for my family, they're all saying they're undecided but they're most certainly voting yes.

[scottish]

I don't see us getting it tbh.

[buttons]

i don't see it happening either but are these polls only asking people who haven't voted yet? there are loads who have already done postal vote. im interested to see how certain areas vote, all i know is Dundee is supposedly majority yes. up in aberdeen/shire there is seriously little campaigning from either side but my town seem to be overwhelmingly yes, we are a small town tho. that goes for all ages.

[Kardan]

I think the 'no' voters are way more likely to keep quiet about their vote due to all the divides this I causing, so there could be an increase for 'No' on the day - one can only hope.

[buttons]

nevermind, Aberdeen is in full force today according to their timetable 9:30-6pm

[dbgtz]

I imagine the situation will be a repeat of the devolution referendums.

[sex]

If the undecided voters so far do end up voting, I think the majority of them will want independence, raising the likelihood of getting it. Almost every undecided voter I've met has said that if they were going to vote, it'd more likely be yes--this is online and offline. Meh, I'm not sure but it seems that way anyway.

Same goes for my family, they're all saying they're undecided but they're most certainly voting yes.

they aren't true undecided voters then lol

[buttons]

I imagine the situation will be a repeat of the devolution referendums.
in what way?

[Grig]

I'm sorry, but this is pissing me off now. Labour and the Conservatives are now promising more devolution (and probably more case for Scotland) in the event that they vote No. Not only is it desperate at the last minute, but it's terribly unfair - why would Scottish MPs continue to be allowed to vote on English-only matters when we don't get a say in the affairs of the Scottish parliament? Anyone with an ounce of common sense could have seen this when the traitors in the Labour Party introduced devolution in the 1990s in order to keep control of their private fiefdoms, and now look at yet another constitutional **** up these idiots have led us into. And where is the Conservative and UNIONIST Party in this? Nowhere! USELESS.

If I had my own way I would have held referendums in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland giving the simple choice: return to a unitary state with one Westminster parliament, or have independence. That would have settled the matter clearly, either way.

And your proposal would have triggered independence. Unless you mean increasing representation at Westminster. What could potentially happen is a British Federation of states, with each having their own greater autonomy.

[Lewis]

they aren't true undecided voters then lol

I know but they say they are in the polls/whatever

[-:Undertaker:-]

i don't see it happening either but are these polls only asking people who haven't voted yet? there are loads who have already done postal vote. im interested to see how certain areas vote, all i know is Dundee is supposedly majority yes. up in aberdeen/shire there is seriously little campaigning from either side but my town seem to be overwhelmingly yes, we are a small town tho. that goes for all ages.

Apparently Glasgow leans towards YES and the more small-c conservative Edinburgh leans towards NO.


And your proposal would have triggered independence. Unless you mean increasing representation at Westminster. What could potentially happen is a British Federation of states, with each having their own greater autonomy.

It would and almost certainly would today given how far the devolution ball has been allowed to roll... but prior to the 1990s, the prospect of independence for Scotland - and even a mickey mouse assembly - was a distant prospect held by only a tiny minority. Even in 1997, the concept that the SNP would win the Scottish assembly elections, purposely designed with the electoral system to prevent such an outcome, was absurd. Yet it happened, all because there was nobody in either Scotland or Britain as a whole to stand up for the Union. Surrendered in Scotland, surrendered in Wales and handed over to terrorists in Northern Ireland. If a value or idea has nobody to defend it, then it will fall.

But given a federal model, or even worse - the balkanisation of England: that's the day I become an English nationalist seeking independence.

[Lewis]

Not long now. Vote yes for independence!

http://i57.tinypic.com/ips7s7.png

[scottish]

why?

[Southe,]

Just passing through..

By the way, Yes is going to win.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Great frontpage on the Telegraph tomorrow.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxw06gIIUAAGo3Q.jpg

Unionists in rallies right now singing Rule Britannia on the streets with the Union Jack flying above. I wish I were there.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Wyx82UHEYg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxwvaeYCYAAAlEk.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxwncvMIAAApviq.jpg:large

Long Live the Union.

[scottish]

Great frontpage on the Telegraph tomorrow.


Unionists in rallies right now singing Rule Britannia on the streets with the Union Jack flying above. I wish I were there.

where lol

[-:Undertaker:-]

where lol

Twitter feed, just added pictures I added above. In George Square.


The Yes camp have blocked the other side now. Crys of Rule Britannia and Vote No

/OWOTdFxWJLP

[buttons]

http://i59.tinypic.com/4ggoqh.jpg

oh dear

[Kardan]

It's going to be a boring few months for all the Scottish journalists if it's a no vote. They've never had so much work.

[Michael]

The biggest potential disaster movie of the year...

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2070484/thumbs/o-INDEPENDENCE-DAY-SCOTLAND-SPOOF-900.jpg?6

[Aiden]

yeah lol all scottish presenters must be buzzing with so much voiceover work

i really hope it's a no vote :/

[Southe,]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152808527742223

Nothing shows how much you love the union by doing Nazi Salutes.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxweKocIgAA8DdW.jpg:large (https://twitter.com/CataloniaYes/status/512317628745265153/photo/1)

[The Don]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152808527742223

Nothing shows how much you love the union by doing Nazi Salutes.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxweKocIgAA8DdW.jpg:large (https://twitter.com/CataloniaYes/status/512317628745265153/photo/1)

Pretty sure that's a guy waving but whatever floats your boat

[Southe,]

Pretty sure that's a guy waving but whatever floats your boat

While i can't be arsed looking for it, there was a post about the guy to his right who is banned from every stadium in Scotland for sectarian abuse. So yea doesn't surprise me.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Here's a useful guide by the Telegraph for tomorrow night via http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102998/Scottish-independence-results-what-to-expect-when.html

It's a shame I didn't apply to become a HxLive DJ and do a show as it is unfolding with comments throughout. :P


Polling day

7am: Some 2608 schools and public halls across Scotland open their doors.

10am – 10pm: Follow Live coverage on Telegraph.co.uk

The results

When to go to bed: 2.30am

If you want a flavour of the drama before heading to bed look out for Stirling, one of the key battlegrounds in the Western Isles, which should declare around 2am. We could see early claims of expected victory from whichever side wins here.

All-nighter: 2.30am – 5am

2.30am A traditional Labour heartland and a big ‘yes’ target, it is one to watch.

4am: South Lanarkshire. If “yes” they win here it could be a landslide as there are more Conservative voters here than your average Scottish region.

4am: Dundee city is also key – this is the “Yes” heartland – if they don’t win the independence campaign will not be optimistic.

Early riser: 5am

5am: Glasgow and Edinburgh, 6am: Aberdeen. Between the three cities that is 25 per cent of the electorate.

No will be looking for a comfortable win from voters in Edinburgh and Aberdeen with a closer run in in Glasgow.

Results over breakfast: 6.30am - 7.30am

You should know if Scotland are an independent country as you pour you cornflakes

[RyRy]

As a Englishman living in Edinburgh right now, I've seen so many No & Yes Scotland people on the streets. It's hard not to notice there's a vote going on, there are people spending their entire day getting behind their respective campaigns. It's something you'll never see again in this lifetime & it's admiring to see a nation taking their democratic right.

These polls are just a guideline, I don't think they've included the 16-18 year old voters who may actually tip the vote into a Yes vote. I've not heard of any MPs going to schools and campaigning there, so who knows? Parents may expect their children to vote accordingly, but many people of that age will take their decision into their own hands when they go into polling stations... and that is truly the most uncertain part of all of this.

I'm all for them going for a Yes vote. I was chatting to one of my friends today about it (hell I've spoken to everybody I know about it here, its ridic) and y'know there's a lot of panic over Scotland failing if they go independent. Her thought was even if Scotland did fall a bit, it's not going to be the end of the nation and it's certainly not the end of the world. The initial year or two will be tough if this goes through, but it'll normalize soon after. Businesses may leave Scotland, but the way I see it is if the likes of Tesco & Morrisons can keep their prices down, why are the likes of Asda and Waitrose saying they'll have to be put up? That is scaremongering if I ever did see it. :(

[scottish]

As a Englishman living in Edinburgh right now, I've seen so many No & Yes Scotland people on the streets. It's hard not to notice there's a vote going on, there are people spending their entire day getting behind their respective campaigns. It's something you'll never see again in this lifetime & it's admiring to see a nation taking their democratic right.

These polls are just a guideline, I don't think they've included the 16-18 year old voters who may actually tip the vote into a Yes vote. I've not heard of any MPs going to schools and campaigning there, so who knows? Parents may expect their children to vote accordingly, but many people of that age will take their decision into their own hands when they go into polling stations... and that is truly the most uncertain part of all of this.

I'm all for them going for a Yes vote. I was chatting to one of my friends today about it (hell I've spoken to everybody I know about it here, its ridic) and y'know there's a lot of panic over Scotland failing if they go independent. Her thought was even if Scotland did fall a bit, it's not going to be the end of the nation and it's certainly not the end of the world. The initial year or two will be tough if this goes through, but it'll normalize soon after. Businesses may leave Scotland, but the way I see it is if the likes of Tesco & Morrisons can keep their prices down, why are the likes of Asda and Waitrose saying they'll have to be put up? That is scaremongering if I ever did see it. :(

the big big debate was aimed at teens :P

[-:Undertaker:-]

Final Poll for the referendum by IpsosMori, fieldwork finished last night at 9pm and it was just released -

NO 53%
YES 47%

[scottish]

Interesting, pushes it further to a No vote compared to other polls

[-:Undertaker:-]

Interesting, pushes it further to a No vote compared to other polls

Survation had the exact same figures too and they finished at 9pm last night also.

It'll be interesting if we get exit polls later tonight. I can't decide whether to stay up or not. :P Are you? Anyone else?

[scottish]

I'm staying up until 7am or whenever the final is announced if I can, if not i'll stay up until you can pretty much guarantee one way or another

[2LQ]

Probably wont stay up but I'm getting up at around 7am for college anyway so I'll get the final results then. Pretty excited/nervous for the results.

The atmosphere in Glasgow is amazing right now, was at the yes rally yesterday and it was great to see so many people friendly and singing with each other.

[ToxicMint]

i hope they vote yes so much i just want them seperate from england and watch the outcome.

[Kardan]

I didn't realise we were voting to separate Scotland from England.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, and I'm not staying up. Have to get up at 6am though, so I'll turn the TV on and maybe just catch the final result, depends if they're especially quick at counting I suppose.

[scottish]

I didn't realise we were voting to separate Scotland from England.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, and I'm not staying up. Have to get up at 6am though, so I'll turn the TV on and maybe just catch the final result, depends if they're especially quick at counting I suppose.

Each council announces their results at a set time (between 2am and 6am iirc) so should have results at 6 :P

[Kardan]

Should be able to pop on here in the morning and either laugh at the two people that are certain it's going to be a 'Yes' vote, or post 'RIP UK' and see Undertaker writea really long post about how it's the end of absolutely everything :P

[scottish]

idk it seems a lot of people are switching last minute to Yes votes instead, I might go vote yes for lols

[lemons]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hamKl-su8PE

[Kardan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hamKl-su8PE

That makes me feel old when you realise it was released 10 years ago.

[scottish]

you are old.

[Lewis]

Should be able to pop on here in the morning and either laugh at the two people that are certain it's going to be a 'Yes' vote, or post 'RIP UK' and see Undertaker writea really long post about how it's the end of absolutely everything :P

who are certain it's going to be yes?

i want independence but i have no idea what the outcome will be

[Kardan]

who are certain it's going to be yes?

i want independence but i have no idea what the outcome will be

A4RON and Southe, are certain it's going to be yes I think. They may very well be right, it's just brave for anyone, yes or no, to say one side is definitely going to win. Far too close to call.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Should be able to pop on here in the morning and either laugh at the two people that are certain it's going to be a 'Yes' vote, or post 'RIP UK' and see Undertaker writea really long post about how it's the end of absolutely everything :P

Or sad as I may be, I may just sit back and watch Labour - who created this runaway train of devolution - lose 50 of their safe seats, and laugh.

In any case, whatever the result tonight: the Union is far from safe. English nationalism, if more powers go to Scotland, will be out of the bottle.

[scottish]

So it's best we leave.

[lemons]

i have a feeling it will be a yes

[Red]

Got a bad a bad feeling it is gna be yes waaa

[-:Undertaker:-]

So it's best we leave.

If Scotland wants to be de facto independent with devomax whilst the rest of Great Britain continues to subsidise it with the Barnett formula, paying for defence, foreign embassies and so on then yeah - you should just leave. Enough blackmailing rUK, it's either in or out.

Cameron was right to make it in or out, he's wrong to have withered and created a huge constitional mess by promising yet more devolution.

[Grig]

Just an opinion of mine to add on the economics of this. While I agree that Scotland's yes vote has a lot of grounds, particularly on the fact the Tories get elected with a lot of annoyance from the Scots and the ignorance by aristocratic leaders, the fact is there stability and no economic crisis. Cameron screwed it up for himself by having a black and white yes no vote and acting like a posh **** until ten days before the referendum. But back to my point, I rarely take the economic stance, but can you find me one legitimate example where Salmond has proposed anything realistic. No. His talk about oil and green energy only comes so far. A Chinese wind plant had to downsize due to how unprofitable it was. The fact is, renewable energy is not sustainable business yet. You saw Ireland in recession, and whenever the next economic storm is brewing, Scotland will be as vulnerable and in actual fact much more. This isn't going to be the successes that the Scandinavian countries had when they were independent, this is going to be much more negative.

The major independence success stories link back to either lots of oil or coming out of an oppressive regime. Scotland doesn't fall into either. It's always uncertainty. The stroke of luck comes with a smart leader, a bit of what Lee Kuan Yew did to Singapore- the biggest success story to come from a small independent state. But they had geography on their side and the Scots don't. I'm merely echoing what the SNP say and they are the driving force. Westminster is even worse in their campaign, but the SNP is not much better; I would really like more solid plans with facts, rather than the whole wishy-washy affair that's occurring now.

[-:Undertaker:-]

From the Editor of the Daily Mirror.


Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 2h

Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see

[Lewis]

Only 45 minutes or so left to vote... Make sure you vote aye. Assuming you can make it on time and make a final decision in that time... hmm.

[scottish]

brb going to vote

[Lewis]

I'm honestly going to be so disappointed if we don't get independence. I do predict there'll be another referendum in around 2030 - 2035 if no wins though.

[xxMATTGxx]

I'm honestly going to be so disappointed if we don't get independence. I do predict there'll be another referendum in around 2030 - 2035 if no wins though.

You'll have less oil then.

[Kardan]

I'm honestly going to be so disappointed if we don't get independence. I do predict there'll be another referendum in around 2030 - 2035 if no wins though.

No chance. Far too soon.

[Lewis]

No chance. Far too soon.

You're probably right, that's a bit early now I look at it. But there'll definitely be another for me to vote in I think. (assuming it's a no, which I hope it isn't!)

[-:Undertaker:-]

Not a proper Exit Poll but it's better than nothing...


YouGov @YouGov · 8m

YouGov will announce its final #IndyRef prediction at 22:30, based on recontacting voters today after they voted

[Lewis]

Not a proper Exit Poll but it's better than nothing...

exciting

hopefully yes will be in the lead for this

[-:Undertaker:-]

Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak · 27m

Palace officials: The Queen is following Scottish #indyref closely and being kept abreast of matters by officials in Edinburgh and London


James Forsyth @JGForsyth · 7m

Polls now closed, and No very confident that they have done enough to win this, and by a better margin than the polls suggest

Apparently ministers in London are feeling 'relieved' tonight....

[Kardan]

YouGov says 46% Yes, 54% No. That's good news, time for bed. Good luck and have fun to the people staying up.

[scottish]

Live coverage just started on BBC Parliament and BBC News Scotland

[-:Undertaker:-]

YouGov projection -

NO 54%
YES 46%

I'll drink my whisky tonight whilst i'm out with caution. :P

[The Don]

Watching now! It's gonna be a long night. Should we just discuss it in here? Or does anyone think it should have a live thread?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Watching now! It's gonna be a long night. Should we just discuss it in here? Or does anyone think it should have a live thread?

I've requested the thread name be changed about twenty minutes ago, moderator should do fairly soon.

I'll be watching on Twitter although should post later when i'm back home. I don't think it's time to be singing Rule Britannia quite yet...

[xxMATTGxx]

I've requested the thread name be changed about twenty minutes ago, moderator should do fairly soon.

I'll be watching on Twitter although should post later when i'm back home. I don't think it's time to be singing Rule Britannia quite yet...

I've done this for you.

[Sharon]

im weirdly excited

eirher way it goes there will be chaos so it will be fun to spectate

[-:Undertaker:-]

Peter Kellner the President of YouGov says on Sky News he believes, 'at the risk of looking like a prat in 8 hours time', 99% certainty that NO has won.

[scottish]

Can we start a new thread for it, this is already 13 pages before anything even started :P

For new comers better having a separate thread for results than previous discussions

[-:Undertaker:-]

The bookies odds on a YES are collapsing as we speak.

Glad Tory backbenchers are already warning that the Government won't get away with offering more powers to the mickey mouse parliament in Holyrood whilst keeping the Barnett Formula in place. As I said, the fight for the future of the Union isn't over tonight even with a NO vote.


Can we start a new thread for it, this is already 13 pages before anything even started :P

For new comers better having a separate thread for results than previous discussions

I think whoever is engaged in this for tonight is pretty much here right now. :P Besides, I prefer a rolling thread.

[AgnesIO]

Peter Kellner the President of YouGov says on Sky News he believes, 'at the risk of looking like a prat in 8 hours time', 99% certainty that NO has won.

I've been thinking it will be a NO for weeks (well, to be honest, I never thought it would be yes).

Having said that, I wouldn't cry or be remotely upset if they do vote YES.

- - - Updated - - -


I think whoever is engaged in this for tonight is pretty much here right now. :P Besides, I prefer a rolling thread.

Won't be here for the entire night.. but hey :L

[scottish]

I don't like threads from 10+ days ongoing though :(

close it and make a new 1 now with the latest yougov

[AgnesIO]

I don't like threads from 10+ days ongoing though :(

close it and make a new 1 now with the latest yougov

I vote YES...

... since I get no vote in the referendum, it seems fair to have a referendum on this.

[scottish]

Latest YouGov poll on the new thread

100% - Yes
0% - No

@xxmattgxxx; -:Undertaker:-;

[AgnesIO]

Latest YouGov poll on the new thread

100% - Yes
0% - No

@xxmattgxxx; @-:Undertaker:- (http://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=24233);

Far larger margin than we can expect in the other (minor) referendum tonight.

Got to be done.

[Chippiewill]

YouGov has now published its latest poll on the new thread

50% - Yes
50% - No

[scottish]

It's 2-0

If you want then it's 2-1

so wrong ;l

[David]

talking about electoral fraud on sky

http://i.imgur.com/0MvtYTN.png

[scottish]

lmao well it'll be looked at several times by both parties (yes/no voters) and there's like 8 ppl to each table aint there?

[David]

"there have been allegations of electoral fraud in glasgow with police asking counters to remove some ballot papers at the count after some people turned up to vote and were told that they had already voted"

lol testing for finger prints and ****

[scottish]

It's relating to 10 votes

[scottish]

Will post stuff here as I cba with 13 page thread

There's a fire alarm gone off on Dundees count, so they're all being evacuated.

Clackmannanshire is announcing their counts;

Total ballots: 35,410
Turnout: 88.6%

Yes: 16,350 - 46%
No: 19,036 - 54%
Rejected: 24 (7 voted both, 16 void for uncertaincy)


Threads merged by mdport. (Forum Moderator) as they are on the same topic

[The Don]

Yes! Off to a good start!

[scottish]

Orkney are looking to declare results in the next 7 minutes.

[Chippiewill]

Election Fraud appears to have gone on..

[scottish]

Apparently it's only relating 10 votes.

The members went in to vote and was told that they had already voted, it was isolated to Glasgow though.

- - - Updated - - -

Dundee members have been let back in after the fire alarm incident.

Counting has continued.

[Chippiewill]

I always find Jeremy Vine funny in election coverage as the "go-to" virtual reality guy.

[scottish]

Unofficially West Lothian is 55-45 apparently.

[David]

http://i.imgur.com/u395N4D.jpg

[scottish]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xEGxc0ItdI

regarding the Glasgow Counting Fraud

- - - Updated - - -

Orkney;

Total ballots: 14,907
Turnout: 83.7%

Yes: 4,883
No: 10,004

Rejected: 20

[David]

orkney guy looked a bit shaky lol
another no with 67%

[scottish]

Total;

Total ballots: 50,317

Yes: 21,233 42%
No: 29,040 58%
Rejected: 44

[Sharon]

got guardian page up gna refresh every few mins

[-:Undertaker:-]

If it is a NO as expected (although coming back from town tipsy I cannot find much information on Twitter) this is an interesting tweet....


George Eaton (Political Editor, New Statesman) ‏@georgeeaton 1h

Farage will speak on the English question tomorrow, says UKIP's David Coburn. Battle with Cameron to claim territory begins now.


Andrew Pierce (LBC Presenter and Political commentator) @toryboypierce · 3h

Ukip will also be the winners of No vote unless Cameron deals with Tory anger over England paying for his Scottish bribe


James Forsyth (Spectator writer) ‏@JGForsyth 49s

Sir Ming Campbell says it is 'unsustainable' for Scottish MPs like him to continue voting on English education, health or other devolved matters

Remember I said about English nationalism being the real threat to the Union? This referendum has opened a can of worms.

[Southe,]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152645465120901

Scum

[lemons]

soo disgusting to watch all this violence coming from the football hooligan type people

OWPzrhni0Aj

[scottish]

That was expected either way.

Glasgow is a highly populated religious area (esp with regards to protestant/catholic for rangers/celtic fans) and regardless of the result a fight was expected in Glasgow.

[Southe,]

https://scontent-b-ams.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10620814_705534766188479_714765695588217743_n.jpg? oh=c161501618264c96be2662d7d620e81e&oe=548F506C

[-:Undertaker:-]

https://scontent-b-ams.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10620814_705534766188479_714765695588217743_n.jpg? oh=c161501618264c96be2662d7d620e81e&oe=548F506C

Hey chum, Scotland are 5m of a 70m population, and is one of 4 home nations. The referendum was on the 18th, today is the 19th.

Believe it or not, its our country too. Scotland voted on a simple yes or no question, and it voted no to independence.

[scottish]

Hey chum, Scotland are 5m of a 70m population, and is one of 4 home nations. The referendum was on the 18th, today is the 19th.

Believe it or not, its our country too. Scotland voted on a simple yes or no question, and it voted no to independence.

and a majority of those voting no was due to the promise of further devolution

federal uk

[-:Undertaker:-]

and a majority of those voting no was due to the promise of further devolution

A pledge that Gordon Brown put forward with the backing of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg.

Parliament wasn't and has not been consulted.
The Cabinet wasn't and has not been consulted.
The British public haven't been consulted in a General Election.


federal uk

That is up to Britain as a whole, not just Scotland, Gordon Brown or the three Westminister parties.

And if yours or the politicians version of federalism involves the slicing up of England, then that is the day I campaign for English independence.

[2LQ]

What's happening in Glasgow right now is disgusting, there's no need for so much violence, especially kicking innocent people in the face...Just been through town and it's a war zone.

[scottish]

What's happening in Glasgow right now is disgusting, there's no need for so much violence, especially kicking innocent people in the face...Just been through town and it's a war zone.

It was going to kick off regardless, even more so with a yes vote anyway due to Catholic vs Protestant.

[Chippiewill]

A pledge that Gordon Brown put forward with the backing of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg.

Parliament wasn't and has not been consulted.
The Cabinet wasn't and has not been consulted.
The British public haven't been consulted in a General Election.


Even more importantly it wasn't listed as an option on the referendum. There's no way to prove a vote for no was a vote for devolution.

[scottish]

But it was promised by all party leaders, so if they choose to ignore it **** will hit the fan and it won't just pass.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Even more importantly it wasn't listed as an option on the referendum. There's no way to prove a vote for no was a vote for devolution.

I don't believe promises of devolution swung it either, nor does Lord Ashcroft.


Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 21h

It does seem from my polling data that the promises made by the three Westminster leaders were probably unnecessary to win the NO vote.

As an Englishman I agree with Tory and Labour backbenchers: block devolution to Scotland until the Barnett Formula is scrapped and Scottish MPs are barred from voting on English-only matters. Any constitutional moves to federalism too, I want a say on (referenda).

[Chippiewill]

I don't believe promises of devolution swung it either, nor does Lord Ashcroft.
Nor do I. It's pretty obvious at this point that the yougov poll was an outlier. We had polls the same day and the day after telling the same narrative as the weeks prior.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Great stuff from Sir Tam Dalyell (Labour MP from 1960s to 2005) on the constitutional mess that has been created. And he says exactly what I thought and still think, that the Scottish parliament should never have been created - and should be abolished - and that devolution should've been a process that devolved powers to local council wards rather than on a national level. In other words, repealing Heath's the 1972 Local Government Act which greatly centralised government. The move to devolution in the 1990s by Labour to protect their power base has literally destroyed the constitutional set up.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YO8ZEJ5Kh0

Why should England, a historically unitary state, be dragged into the mire of federalism because of Labour and Scotland? Unacceptable.

[Lewis]

god save scotland

i demand a revote

[Mark]

god save scotland

i demand a revote

If you can get 400,000 extra votes from this revote you want then by all means have it. If not, let's drop the issue of vote rigging and petulant moaning and campaign for change for Scotland...

[Lewis]

If you can get 400,000 extra votes from this revote you want then by all means have it. If not, let's drop the issue of vote rigging and petulant moaning and campaign for change for Scotland...


I've not claimed it's been rigged and I'm not really moaning. I just don't like the looks of what's already happening and I'm not looking forward for what's to come for Scotland after the no vote.

And by a revote, I meant another referendum in reasonable time that is practically an impossibility to happen!

Although I certainly believe that if we give it a few more years, more and more people equaling to that or more are going to wish they had voted for independence. I do hope very much I'm proven wrong over that obviously, though.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I've not claimed it's been rigged and I'm not really moaning. I just don't like the looks of what's already happening and I'm not looking forward for what's to come for Scotland after the no vote.

You mean the notion that Scottish MPs should have less of a say when it comes to English-only matters? You mean the questions over the Barnett Formula (subsidies TO Scotland) which English MPs are now questioning seeing as you demand devomax?

You all started this and now you've woken up the English lion, we were quite happy with one British parliament.


are going to wish they had voted for independence.

But you weren't voting for real independence.

- You wanted to retain the Pound Sterling, the currency of the United Kingdom.
- Salmond and the SNP wanted to join the EU, and even worse lose the few floppy opt-outs that Britain has.
- By joining the EU Scotland would have been legally compelled to join the Euro currency at some point or other.
- Salmond wanted to join NATO, with a 'defence-force' similar to the Republic of Ireland, meaning rUK would've de facto been your defence.

It all seems a bit of a fantasy to me.

[Mark]

I've not claimed it's been rigged and I'm not really moaning. I just don't like the looks of what's already happening and I'm not looking forward for what's to come for Scotland after the no vote.

And by a revote, I meant another referendum in reasonable time that is practically an impossibility to happen!

Although I certainly believe that if we give it a few more years, more and more people equaling to that or more are going to wish they had voted for independence. I do hope very much I'm proven wrong over that obviously, though.

I think if they don't deliver what Scotland needs and wants then I'll be bitterly disappointed and it could actually sway my vote, if there's a future referendum. My view is that they have to deliver what they promised, especially now that Wales and N.Ireland have piped up and demanded what we have.
At the end of the day it's early days, give it time. I totally agree that Scottish MPs shouldn't be voting on English-only issues. I also agree that England should get their own parliament. In terms of funding to Scotland, that should not change. The minute Scotland are massively disadvantaged by Westminster support for independence will soar.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I also agree that England should get their own parliament.

Hang on a second, the creation of a mickey mouse English parliament stuffed full of fourth rate politicians (with yet MORE elections) is a profound constitutional change. As is the creation of a federal Britain, something that runs opposite to the historical English unitary system of government. Who gave Scotland the right to decide all of this for England by a referedum?

As an Englishman, I don't want an English parliament or federalism. Where is my say in all of this?


In terms of funding to Scotland, that should not change. The minute Scotland are massively disadvantaged by Westminster support for independence will soar.

Oh so in other words, you want to have your cake and eat it.

If you want devomax (in which case, I have no idea why you even bothered to campaign to stay in the Union) then it would include fiscal devolution. Now can you tell me why the English taxpayer should continue to subsidise Scottish health, welfare and education when you want devomax? I certainly won't accept it, and nor will many English MPs - along with the creator of the Barnett Formula (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11108848/Scottish-Referendum-My-Barnett-Formula-needs-to-be-tackled-now-but-no-politician-will.html) - who now realise that if Scotland wants devomax, it's time for the Barnett formula to go and for the West Lothian question to be answered.

Why should England subsidise you via Barnett as though you are a poorer region of England when you increasingly want nothing to do with us?

[Chippiewill]

As an Englishman, I don't want an English parliament or federalism. Where is my say in all of this?
I assume there'll be a referendum at some point if english devolution is proposed.