Referendum Day Minus 8: New poll by Survation out tonight

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/


http://www.ezimba.com/work/140910C/ezimba15408990493200.png

This’ll be the first full poll since YouGov had YES in the lead


With the referendum now so close and the days running out the head of Survation, Damian Lyons Lowe, has added to the tension with the above Tweet about his Daily Record survey posted at about 2.30 am.

His firm has carried out more IndyRef polls for more media outlets this year than any other pollsters and his methodology has tended to show YES in quite favourable positions.

His first loyalty here is to the Daily Record which has already said that this will be published at 10.30pm.

What I’ve liked about Survation is the speed that that they get their polls out after the end of fieldwork. They were the first to complete full and publish full surveys out after both of the TV debates.

What’s significant about this latest survey is that it will be the first full poll after YES was reported to be in the lead in the YouGov poll at the weekend. Has the very fact that YES might do it had an impact on opinion?

This could be either way. It could have spurred on a YES band-wagon effect or else it could have galvanised NO.

Alas we are going to have to wait until this evening.


http://www.ezimba.com/work/140910C/ezimba15408968050300.png

If he's referring to sensational as in past Survation polls - which pollsters usually do, refer to their own work - then it looks set to be bad news for the Unionists. If he's referring to YouGov and the hype in recent days over that poll, then it could mean as Mike Smithson suggested that the NO vote has swung into action in reaction to the higher likelyhood of a YES vote. Apparently the demographic group now most strongly against YES are elderly women.

Here are the normal most recent General Election polls for the meantime..

YouGov/Sun -

Labour 36%
Conservatives 30%
Ukip 16%
Liberal Democrats 8%

Lord Ashcroft -

Labour 35%
Conservatives 28%
Ukip 18%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Green Party 6%

We won't know until tonight of course, but if you want post some guesses what you think each side will have in this coming Survation poll. Get the percentages right (either including or excluding don't knows - or both) and I will give you a +rep.

Thoughts?

[Kardan]

Excluding don't knows, I'll go for 51% No, 49% Yes. I reckon it will keep swinging from one side to the other until the vote happens.

[scottish]

Excluding don't knows, I'll go for 51% No, 49% Yes. I reckon it will keep swinging from one side to the other until the vote happens.

and when it does, no will win.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Survation/Daily Record -

YES - 47%
NO - 53%

Including Don't Knows it's...

YES - 42.4%
NO - 47.6%
DON'T KNOW - 9.9%

[-:Undertaker:-]

I think it was Jen (buttons) who asked to see the vote in certain areas. Here's the Survation poll graphic from Mike Smithson.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxNDS43CcAAXMVQ.jpg

[scottish]

Seems odd, a LOT more places seem more pro-yes than pro-no, yet polls completely different, hmm.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Seems odd, a LOT more places seem more pro-yes than pro-no, yet polls completely different, hmm.

Only two of the eight there have YES majorities? :P

In any case, each region will have different population sizes, turnout statistics and so on.

[scottish]

Only two of the eight there have YES majorities? :P

In any case, each region will have different population sizes, turnout statistics and so on.

Yeah exactly, I hear various places are pro-yes rather than pro-no, but then quite a lot no voters will stay quiet i'd imagine.

[buttons]

habbox should do competitions on this
i think final vote is gonna be 52% no 48% yes but the numbers will seem higher than they are because there wil still be non-votes.

[lemons]

when do we find out the result is it thursday night /friday??

[buttons]

think it's Friday, good thing I'm not gonna be at a pub, itll be good for pubs cause il bet loads of people will be out watching it.

[scottish]

I think it'll be more spread, 56% Yes 44% No

[buttons]

do u not mean the other way round lol

[dbgtz]

72% Yes 28% No

Interesting to see the polls in specific places and who was voted in.

[scottish]

yes I mean 56% No 44% Yes

[buttons]

North Korea’s embrace of Mr Salmond comes after Russian separatists in Ukraine embarrassed the SNP after launching an online campaign to support independence.




Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2752137/North-Korea-comes-support-Scottish-independence-start-importing-whisky.html#ixzz3D1jvouCW
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


we have North Korea... they're in support of our independence

[Inseriousity.]

lmao if only they had a vote! with that dictator leading youd have got a lot of yes votes!

[buttons]

16-17 year olds were invited for a debate today which will be aired at 9pm bbc1, 16-17 year olds from my old school attended and they've said they believe the yes side won. obviously no voters will say the same. anyway, a group of them have said they were asked to say they were no voters or undecided when interviewed (for the show) lol

[-:Undertaker:-]

There's two polls out tonight apparently, one from ComRes and another from YouGov (which will be key to watch as it gave YES a lead last time).

I don't think all has been released just yet, but here's some interesting data from the upcoming poll...


http://www.ezimba.com/work/140912C/ezimba19493053238300.png

[-:Undertaker:-]

Tonight's YouGov, the first since that shock YouGov poll the other day...

YES 48% (-3)
NO 52% (+3)

Margin of error at +/-3% though. So only slight movements.

And may aswell post it, here's tonight's YouGov for General Election voting intentions...

Labour 35%
Conservatives 31%
UKIP 16%
Liberal Democrats 7%

[scottish]

So according to the bets atm http://lexet.net/indyref.html

buttons is favourite to win

[buttons]

why do u have no thanks as ur pic youre not even voting

[Chippiewill]

Tonight's YouGov, the first since that shock YouGov poll the other day...

YES 48% (-3)
NO 52% (+3)

Margin of error at +/-3% though. So only slight movements.

Hard to say for sure but this backs up my suspicion of over-testing being a factor in the previous yougov.

[dbgtz]

Somewhat unrelated but did anybody watch the youth debate for Scottish independence? I missed a lot of it but in the bit I watched, the kids didn't seem to know what they're talking about.

[lemons]

just finished watching and i agree lmfao they just shouted WOOOOo at whatever the blonde woman said

[MKR&*42]

I watched most of it, missed quite a bit of the start but caught a good hour almost and yeah I cannot believe some of those kids will get a say on independence despite how clueless they are.

[buttons]

i watched it and don't see why the kids are 'clueless' or 'have no idea what they're saying'
why cant u guys give people a chance? some of us can make up our own minds.
u heard from a few thousand kids and even then it was only a few making themselves known.

[dbgtz]

i watched it and don't see why the kids are 'clueless' or 'have no idea what they're saying'
why cant u guys give people a chance? some of us can make up our own minds.
u heard from a few thousand kids and even then it was only a few making themselves known.

One was criticising the Barnett formula, claiming Scotland would lose money if scrapped. OK, this would be true, but they seem to fail to see how unfair the formula is. And assuming the replacement would be an equal divide of money per head, then they'd only lose 1 billion, not 4. Then some kid goes on about "settling" for free tuition fees. They're probably a minority, but you understand my point.

One thing that was really bad about it was the boos, absolutely pathetic. You should not boo because you disagree with a valid concern someone has raised.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Somewhat unrelated but did anybody watch the youth debate for Scottish independence? I missed a lot of it but in the bit I watched, the kids didn't seem to know what they're talking about.

Students and young people usually don't know what they're talking about, lets be honest.

With age comes wisdom for all of us.

[Reality]

58 - Yes
42 - No

[scottish]

'the big big debate' was stupid anyway, half way into a scottish independence debate you scrape the barrel with someones view on rape or rape apologist or whatever the **** it was

what has that got to do with Scottish Independence? Nothing.

I'm sure each of the politicians up there have some dark stuff in their past but I fail to see what relevance it has in the indyref, it's just brainwashing kids into disliking someone for their views, which have absolutely nothing to do with the debate at hand.

[lemons]

Why the hell was that man from CBB representing better together he is so embarrassing all he went on about was oil

[scottish]

What man from CBB and where? lol

at the debate or you talking about random

[Lewis]

apparently they forced some of the undecided/yes voters to sit on the no seats lol

[lemons]

What man from CBB and where? lol

at the debate or you talking about random
At the big big debate George Galloway

[Kardan]

At the big big debate George Galloway

He's an MP.

[lemons]

He's an MP.
so what im sure there is better people they could of used! he made a fool of himself

[Kardan]

so what im sure there is better people they could of used! he made a fool of himself

Oh, that's quite obvious, I've never liked the man myself :P

[A4R0N]

so what im sure there is better people they could of used! he made a fool of himself

because he is a fool

[wixard]

omg is that the guy

dO U WANT ME
TO BE
THE CAT?

[lemons]

omg is that the guy

dO U WANT ME
TO BE
THE CAT?
http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article8424318.ece/alternates/w620/George%20Galloway%20Big%20Brother.jpg
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-41IChprV9Dc/UlGpz5_scaI/AAAAAAAAE6s/SdOzbFML_JQ/s640/george_galloway_pete_burns_cbb.jpg

[lemons]

over 5000 yes campaigners apparently protesting outside bbc glasgow
live stream here
http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/BBCBiasV