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View Full Version : Survation poll: Ukip surge to 25% (meaning 128 MPs) with Tories and Labour on 31%



-:Undertaker:-
11-10-2014, 10:11 PM
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2014-10-11/support-for-ukip-surges-to-25-in-new-poll/

Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday: Ukip surge to 25% following by-election victory, a result that would mean 128 MPs. Labour and the Tories on 31% each

- One in four Britons now back Nigel Farage's Ukip
- Ukip secure support of 30.3% of male voters, with 18.9% of women voters
- Four-points ahead of Tories in South-eastern heartlands on 37.6% of the vote

Labour 31% = 253 MPs
Conservatives 31% = 187 MPs
Ukip 25% = 128 MPs
Liberal Democrats 8% = 11 MPs


Ukip has surged to 25% in the polls and the soaring level of support would secure the party an astonishing 128 MPs in a general election, experts have claimed.

In a staggering study for the Mail on Sunday fresh off the back of the eurosceptic party's by-election victory in Clacton, Nigel Farage has won the support of one in four voters and is on course to send shockwaves through parliament.

The Survation poll put the party on an all-time high and analysis has found that a repeat in May next year would see the Conservatives lose 100 seats and Ed Miliband in No 10.


http://www.ezimba.com/work/141012C/ezimba11651120232200.png


Labour and the Tories are both on 31% while the Liberal Democrats are on 8%, according to the research for the newspaper.

Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the Mail on Sunday : "If Ukip are to turn votes into Commons seats in Britain's first-past-the-post system, they need to build up bastions of local strength. Today's poll suggests they may have begun to do that.

"T he 25% level represents a 22-point increase on the 3% the party won in 2010.

"If that increase were to occur evenly in every constituency, they could still fail to pick up a single seat.

"But today's poll suggests Ukip's support has increased much more in the south of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK - by a staggering 34 points.

"If that level was recorded throughout the South, Ukip could win as many as 128 seats, with no less than 102 of them coming from the Conservatives, whose vote in the region is down 14 points.

"In that event, Cameron would be left with just 187 seats, almost as weak a position as the Conservatives were in after their calamitous defeat in 1997.

"Mr Farage would achieve his ambition of holding the balance of power at Westminster. Any poll estimate of what is going on in an individual region is inevitably not as robust as that for the country as a whole.

"However, if Ukip are advancing more strongly in some parts of the South, its chances of establishing itself as a significant force at Westminster may well be higher than has so far been appreciated."

One pollster and one poll, early days... although not the same it's worth thinking of the SDP in the 1980s. On the other hand though, and more comparable, look at 1993 in Canada.

One thing we can be sure of, that the Rochester and Strood by-election will be hugely important and the Tories will likely throw the kitchen sink at that approaching by-election.

I also give up trying to include a picture/video with this **** third world internet.

Thoughts?

-:Undertaker:-
11-10-2014, 10:41 PM
Here's a breakdown of the poll...

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/breakdown-of-latest-survation-polling.html


Male (national) voting intentions

Conservatives 32.5%
UKIP 30.9%
Labour 27.9%
LibDems 3.6%
SNP 3.6%
Greens 1.2%


Female (national) voting intentions

Labour 36%
Conservatives 28.6%
UKIP 19.9%
LibDems 7.1%
SNP 5.1%
Greens 2.5%


Survation Aged over 55 (nationally) voting intentions

UKIP 35.3%
Conservatives 32.9%
Labour 19.6%
LibDems 6.8%
SNP 3.2%
Greens 2.1%

75.2% are certain to vote

Chippiewill
11-10-2014, 11:03 PM
As I said with the previous high UKIP poll, we need the next poll to confirm it otherwise it's meaningless data.

Inseriousity.
11-10-2014, 11:49 PM
That academic who's the UKIP expert has said this is nonsense and that he'd eat his book if it were true.

-:Undertaker:-
12-10-2014, 03:05 AM
As I said with the previous high UKIP poll, we need the next poll to confirm it otherwise it's meaningless data.

Indeed.

It's interesting to note the continued large difference in % for Ukip between the pollsters.


That academic who's the UKIP expert has said this is nonsense and that he'd eat his book if it were true.

I place a lot more faith on Professor John Curtice than I do Matthew Goodwin, although both are great... and of course there's cavaets to this as Curtice says: with 25% you could end up with 0 MPs, 10 MPs or 128 MPs.

If Curtice is saying this, then he must be looking at solely south-eastern contests. While very very unlikely I will admit it's not beyond reality. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993) FPTP can work in very strange ways once the tipping point has been reached (see link).

AgnesIO
12-10-2014, 04:38 PM
I don't think you have quite grasped the beauty of first past the post Dan.

Also, UKIP will not get 25% of the vote. If I was a gambling man...

#Team2015

*Seen you have just clarified that 25% doesn't meant 128 mp's lol

-:Undertaker:-
12-10-2014, 04:52 PM
I don't think you have quite grasped the beauty of first past the post Dan.

*Seen you have just clarified that 25% doesn't meant 128 mp's lol

As I said, FPTP can result in a huge increase of seats with every %-point added. As the Canadian Tories found out at the hands of the Reform Party in 1993: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993

I'm not saying Ukip will do it, it's just what I am hoping for.. it is possible however unlikely.


Also, UKIP will not get 25% of the vote. If I was a gambling man...

#Team2015

Tories cannot win a majority until they are 7% ahead of Labour as well as Labour having to dip under the 20% to 25% of 2010 Liberal Democrat voters for a Tory victory to become possible. Given the Tories have failed to win a General Election since 1992 - as well as failing against Gordon Brown in 2010 - what makes you want to put money on what is a dying party?

AgnesIO
12-10-2014, 06:32 PM
As I said, FPTP can result in a huge increase of seats with every %-point added. As the Canadian Tories found out at the hands of the Reform Party in 1993: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993

I'm not saying Ukip will do it, it's just what I am hoping for.. it is possible however unlikely.



Tories cannot win a majority until they are 7% ahead of Labour as well as Labour having to dip under the 20% to 25% of 2010 Liberal Democrat voters for a Tory victory to become possible. Given the Tories have failed to win a General Election since 1992 - as well as failing against Gordon Brown in 2010 - what makes you want to put money on what is a dying party?

Er I was referring to UKIP not getting 25%, not that the Tories would win outright. Still too early to say who will win the most seats out of Labour and the Conservatives.

(I realise the confusion there was my fault, not yours!)

-:Undertaker:-
15-10-2014, 12:01 AM
As I said with the previous high UKIP poll, we need the next poll to confirm it otherwise it's meaningless data.

Just had a surprising YouGov poll come out (and bear in mind, YG don't prompt for Ukip and usually show lower shares for the party) and it's a record high with YG for the purples.


Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 4m 4 minutes ago

UKIP moves to record YouGov high of 18% in latest Sun daily poll

CON 30
LAB 34
LD 8
UKIP 18

The reverberations from Clacton continue

Nothing on Twitter about the Green share which I would be interested to see.

Chippiewill
15-10-2014, 03:40 AM
I believe ICM also had a (not quite record) high for UKIP too.

-:Undertaker:-
15-10-2014, 05:57 PM
I believe ICM also had a (not quite record) high for UKIP too.

Just seen this from IpsosMori...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bz_AMJrCIAAFVLt.png

The barrier of FPTP 'wasted vote' is being overcome. Very dangerous for the Tories in particular.

Chippiewill
15-10-2014, 09:53 PM
Just seen this from IpsosMori...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bz_AMJrCIAAFVLt.png

The barrier of FPTP 'wasted vote' is being overcome. Very dangerous for the Tories in particular.

I don't mean to belittle that achievement, because that is a great shift. But I suspect part of that change in response will be coming from people parroting the media which in the wake of the Clacton result mentioned in just about every conservative interview "If you vote UKIP you don't get labour you get UKIP".

When people answer these types of poll questions they often try to put their opinion aside and just end up saying what the news has said.

-:Undertaker:-
15-10-2014, 10:36 PM
I don't mean to belittle that achievement, because that is a great shift. But I suspect part of that change in response will be coming from people parroting the media which in the wake of the Clacton result mentioned in just about every conservative interview "If you vote UKIP you don't get labour you get UKIP".

When people answer these types of poll questions they often try to put their opinion aside and just end up saying what the news has said.

Oh indeed, but then isn't a lot of party politics about media presentation/perception and momentum?


Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 45m45 minutes ago

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two points, Ukip hit record level of support:

CON 31%
LAB 33%
LD 7%
UKIP 19%
GRN 5%


Tom Newton Dunn (Sun Political Editor) ‏@tnewtondunn 39m39 minutes ago

Alarming numbers for Tories and Lab in our @YouGov tonight; combined 31% + 33% is lowest this Parliament, while UKIP on new record high 19%.

Another record high with YouGov tonight, unprompted too.

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