-:Undertaker:-
19-11-2014, 08:38 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30094244
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/nov/19/if-polls-are-right-ukip-will-walk-the-rochester-and-strood-byelection
Rochester and Strood by-election: campaigning enters final stages
If polls are right, Ukip will walk the Rochester and Strood by-election
The most recent polls show Ukip leading the Conservatives in Rochester and Strood by a comfortable 13, 15 and 12 points respectively. A month ago the outcome of the byelection wasn’t so obvious - and this matters
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/79094000/jpg/_79094029_rochesterandstrooddebate.jpg
Around the time of the Clacton byelection a poll by Survation on Thursday’s vote in Rochester and Strood had Ukip on 40%, nine points ahead of the Conservatives. Labour were on 25%.
The Rochester and Strood byelection was seen by many as a potential dress rehearsal ahead of next year’s general election - a relatively safe seat that had the makings of a potential three-horse race. Despite Ukip’s nine-point lead, the underlying trends in Rochester and Strood were viewed very differently to Clacton, which, in theory at least, made the race an uncertain one.
Rochester and Strood is a constituency where the local candidate isn’t as strong as in Clacton: 70% of those who intend to vote Ukip like the party’s policies, 12% like Mark Reckless.
Nearly 25% of the Ukip support in the Survation poll were non-voters in 2010. Meaning the vote is seen as an indication of Ukip’s ability to attract non-voters, and translate intent into actual vote.
The uncertainty of the outcome at the time is further compounded by the number of conservative MPs and ministers that have visited the constituency - or more precisely, by the number asked to visit Rochester and Strood. The New Statesman reports that the Prime Minister has instructed his MPs to visit the constituency “at least three times”, with cabinet members and whips visiting at least five times. A clear sign of both the significance of Thursday’s vote, and the Tories’ belief that they could win the byelection.
Rochester and Strood is also an important test for the Conservatives in terms of defending a seat that hadn’t previously figured highly in places favourable to Ukip based on demographic factors.
Labour held the predecessor seat to Rochester and Strood for 13 years, up until 2010. While the boundary changes, and therefore the demographic makeup of the constituency, make for an uneasy comparison, Ed Miliband’s party would be expected to put in a good showing in the area.
One month is a very, very long time in politics
Since the Clacton byelection there have been three Rochester and Strood polls.
A ComRes poll released on 21 October had Ukip on 43%, 13 points ahead of the Conservatives. Figures released a week later by Survation showed a 15 point gap, with Ukip on 48%. In the most recent numbers, from a Lord Ashcroft poll published on 11 November, Ukip lead the Conservatives by 44% to 32%.
With margins of 13, 15, and 12 points, Ukip’s lead has clearly widened since Clacton voted.
Labour was on 21%, 16%, and 17% in the three polls. On the one hand, Ed Miliband’s party has set the bar of expectation in Rochester and Strood so low that probably only finishing behind the Liberal Democrats (on 3%, 1%, and 2% respectively in the three sets of figures) or the Greens would be considered bad news. In the longer-term though, looking ahead at May next year, the drop in support for Labour across these polls, if confirmed on Thursday, is further evidence that Ukip’s vote is now coming from both main parties. YouGov analysis has found that the proportion of Ukip voters coming from the Labour party has trebled since January 2013, from 7% to 23%. While this is still lower than Tory converts (36%), compared to earlier Ukip support, Nigel Farage’s votes are now more widely distributed.
For the Conservatives anything but a win will be seen as a defeat
The only silver lining for David Cameron is that when respondents in Lord Ashcroft’s Rochester and Strood poll were asked how they would vote next May, 36% said Conservatives, 35% Ukip (with Labour on 21%, and the Lib Dems on 2%, behind the Greens, on 5%). It may be a short-lasting consolation though. If as expected, Mark Reckless delivers Ukip’s second Westminster seat, reports on who might defect next among the most rebellious Tory MPs are likely to get louder.
Tomorrow the polls open and tomorrow night the results will be counted, with the outcome being apparent around 12 to 3am. The last polls put Ukip ahead in the seat, relying on a coalition of ex-Labour and non-voters to win the seat: one which is judged by academics to be the 271st most favourable seat in the country in terms of demographics etc.
Background information is that the seat used to be held by Labour until 2005 (boundary changes took place at same time) and has been held by the Tories by a comfortable margin ever since. Not sure whether i'm staying up for it considering how my sleeping pattern is fabulous at the moment, but we'll see. :P
If I see any more good analysis out tomorrow I may post below, but yeah should be an interesting one this.
Thoughts?
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/nov/19/if-polls-are-right-ukip-will-walk-the-rochester-and-strood-byelection
Rochester and Strood by-election: campaigning enters final stages
If polls are right, Ukip will walk the Rochester and Strood by-election
The most recent polls show Ukip leading the Conservatives in Rochester and Strood by a comfortable 13, 15 and 12 points respectively. A month ago the outcome of the byelection wasn’t so obvious - and this matters
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/79094000/jpg/_79094029_rochesterandstrooddebate.jpg
Around the time of the Clacton byelection a poll by Survation on Thursday’s vote in Rochester and Strood had Ukip on 40%, nine points ahead of the Conservatives. Labour were on 25%.
The Rochester and Strood byelection was seen by many as a potential dress rehearsal ahead of next year’s general election - a relatively safe seat that had the makings of a potential three-horse race. Despite Ukip’s nine-point lead, the underlying trends in Rochester and Strood were viewed very differently to Clacton, which, in theory at least, made the race an uncertain one.
Rochester and Strood is a constituency where the local candidate isn’t as strong as in Clacton: 70% of those who intend to vote Ukip like the party’s policies, 12% like Mark Reckless.
Nearly 25% of the Ukip support in the Survation poll were non-voters in 2010. Meaning the vote is seen as an indication of Ukip’s ability to attract non-voters, and translate intent into actual vote.
The uncertainty of the outcome at the time is further compounded by the number of conservative MPs and ministers that have visited the constituency - or more precisely, by the number asked to visit Rochester and Strood. The New Statesman reports that the Prime Minister has instructed his MPs to visit the constituency “at least three times”, with cabinet members and whips visiting at least five times. A clear sign of both the significance of Thursday’s vote, and the Tories’ belief that they could win the byelection.
Rochester and Strood is also an important test for the Conservatives in terms of defending a seat that hadn’t previously figured highly in places favourable to Ukip based on demographic factors.
Labour held the predecessor seat to Rochester and Strood for 13 years, up until 2010. While the boundary changes, and therefore the demographic makeup of the constituency, make for an uneasy comparison, Ed Miliband’s party would be expected to put in a good showing in the area.
One month is a very, very long time in politics
Since the Clacton byelection there have been three Rochester and Strood polls.
A ComRes poll released on 21 October had Ukip on 43%, 13 points ahead of the Conservatives. Figures released a week later by Survation showed a 15 point gap, with Ukip on 48%. In the most recent numbers, from a Lord Ashcroft poll published on 11 November, Ukip lead the Conservatives by 44% to 32%.
With margins of 13, 15, and 12 points, Ukip’s lead has clearly widened since Clacton voted.
Labour was on 21%, 16%, and 17% in the three polls. On the one hand, Ed Miliband’s party has set the bar of expectation in Rochester and Strood so low that probably only finishing behind the Liberal Democrats (on 3%, 1%, and 2% respectively in the three sets of figures) or the Greens would be considered bad news. In the longer-term though, looking ahead at May next year, the drop in support for Labour across these polls, if confirmed on Thursday, is further evidence that Ukip’s vote is now coming from both main parties. YouGov analysis has found that the proportion of Ukip voters coming from the Labour party has trebled since January 2013, from 7% to 23%. While this is still lower than Tory converts (36%), compared to earlier Ukip support, Nigel Farage’s votes are now more widely distributed.
For the Conservatives anything but a win will be seen as a defeat
The only silver lining for David Cameron is that when respondents in Lord Ashcroft’s Rochester and Strood poll were asked how they would vote next May, 36% said Conservatives, 35% Ukip (with Labour on 21%, and the Lib Dems on 2%, behind the Greens, on 5%). It may be a short-lasting consolation though. If as expected, Mark Reckless delivers Ukip’s second Westminster seat, reports on who might defect next among the most rebellious Tory MPs are likely to get louder.
Tomorrow the polls open and tomorrow night the results will be counted, with the outcome being apparent around 12 to 3am. The last polls put Ukip ahead in the seat, relying on a coalition of ex-Labour and non-voters to win the seat: one which is judged by academics to be the 271st most favourable seat in the country in terms of demographics etc.
Background information is that the seat used to be held by Labour until 2005 (boundary changes took place at same time) and has been held by the Tories by a comfortable margin ever since. Not sure whether i'm staying up for it considering how my sleeping pattern is fabulous at the moment, but we'll see. :P
If I see any more good analysis out tomorrow I may post below, but yeah should be an interesting one this.
Thoughts?