The Rare Values Market in 2015

[-:Undertaker:-]

Hey.

For a number of years I have been tracking the history of the rare values market, including researching market history a long time ago with older Habbo players now all long gone in order to get a picture of how the rare values market has developed over time. A year or two ago I shared my (rough) graph on Habbox Wiki and I had data to the middle of 2013: well now i've updated it, and wondered whether anybody would be interesting in having a look of the newly updated graph. Often you can see patterns in these kind of things, and 2014 has been a very good year (the second half, anyway) as you can see.


http://www.habboxwiki.com/wiki/images/5/5e/Danshistoricalgraphrv.gif

You can read what each point - (marked with the roman numerals) means with a short summary that can be found on this page: http://www.habboxwiki.com/History_of_the_British_Rare_Values_Market

Any thoughts on what 2015 will hold? :)

[Zak]

I think rares will do well this year. A slow rise for those that are desirable.

I've found with super rares that people appear to be hoarding them - me included - so there are certainly less on the market. I don't mean thrones, dinos , typos etc I mean things like Moodi Machines, Infobuses and such.

[Kyle]

The categorisation of what is rare, super rare and ultra rate has certainly changed quite a bit. Since major dumps of previously coveted casino decoration furni after large scale thefts it seems that the focus has tipped toward the much higher price ranges and people are doing all that they can to raise the prices of those (hoarding) and ignoring standard rares. The super rich are profiting from gradual inflation of what they already own and cuts in credit prices mean that standard rares won't completely collapse because people can afford to buy them at their current price. Throughout the year I can definitely see seasonal an norm items becoming more available than ever with bundle releases causing price stabilisation, classic rares will fluctuate a little as they have always done and new rares will be extortionately priced or require some form of in game purchase (ie credits+diamonds as with the recent grandfather clock) meaning they'll rise in price consistently over time.


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[Zak]

The categorisation of what is rare, super rare and ultra rate has certainly changed quite a bit. Since major dumps of previously coveted casino decoration furni after large scale thefts it seems that the focus has tipped toward the much higher price ranges and people are doing all that they can to raise the prices of those (hoarding) and ignoring standard rares. The super rich are profiting from gradual inflation of what they already own and cuts in credit prices mean that standard rares won't completely collapse because people can afford to buy them at their current price. Throughout the year I can definitely see seasonal an norm items becoming more available than ever with bundle releases causing price stabilisation, classic rares will fluctuate a little as they have always done and new rares will be extortionately priced or require some form of in game purchase (ie credits+diamonds as with the recent grandfather clock) meaning they'll rise in price consistently over time.


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What do you consider to be ultra rare Kyle? I don't think we have an ultra rare category? but I do think we should have one

[Kyle]

What do you consider to be ultra rare Kyle? I don't think we have an ultra rare category? but I do think we should have one
I'd say items that have been released for campaigns or for short periods in very small numbers with absolutely no chance of being rereleased. moodi machines, black dtl, merge compensation, very old posters or prizes, etc.

[B]

I'd say items that have been released for campaigns or for short periods in very small numbers with absolutely no chance of being rereleased. moodi machines, black dtl, merge compensation, very old posters or prizes, etc.


Nice graph. Thats pretty interesting to see especially that massive spike just pre merge.


Agreed on ultra category. Anything that the consensus says will not be re released (moodi dtl intobus etc) which I usually deem less than 30 on hotel. Perhaps DJ_Shadow can track all ultras on a per user level ;)

[Brad]

The fact that you've been tracking that for some time is very interesting. I do have to say that I agree with what Kyle; has said.
You have to consider that a lot of what we considered "Rares" back in 2001-2008 may not be rares now, and have become almost like a "seasonal item"... (Taking for instance the HC furniture... I remember when a study desk used to be 15c+, now you can get 2 for 1c)
Although I like your graph, I assume this is just based off of one set of rares? or all rares in general?
It's funny that you can see the steep decline when major changes happened within the hotel.
I don't see them getting any worse than what they were when the merge happened, but I can definitely say they wont be anywhere near what they used to be. 2015 should be a good year on unexpected rares.. :P

Thanks -:Undertaker:-; For this graph though. Much dedication to say the least.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The fact that you've been tracking that for some time is very interesting. I do have to say that I agree with what Kyle; has said.
You have to consider that a lot of what we considered "Rares" back in 2001-2008 may not be rares now, and have become almost like a "seasonal item"... (Taking for instance the HC furniture... I remember when a study desk used to be 15c+, now you can get 2 for 1c)
Although I like your graph, I assume this is just based off of one set of rares? or all rares in general?
It's funny that you can see the steep decline when major changes happened within the hotel.
I don't see them getting any worse than what they were when the merge happened, but I can definitely say they wont be anywhere near what they used to be. 2015 should be a good year on unexpected rares.. :P

Thanks -:Undertaker:-; For this graph though. Much dedication to say the least.

Thank you. :)

And the graph includes all rares as time progresses, it should perhaps have a slight more increase over time to reflect an increased volume but as I have been the sole person updating it for years now it is fairly accurate in terms of how much the market increased by on each spike, and how much it slumped by following on afterwards as I have been able to think back and compare to past increases. It's not mathematical, but is done on memory and knowledge of the history.

[Brad]

Thank you. :)

And the graph includes all rares as time progresses, it should perhaps have a slight more increase over time to reflect an increased volume but as I have been the sole person updating it for years now it is fairly accurate in terms of how much the market increased by on each spike, and how much it slumped by following on afterwards as I have been able to think back and compare to past increases. It's not mathematical, but is done on memory and knowledge of the history.

Ah understandable.
Accuracy.. I agree with.
It'd be neat if you could maybe separate the different categories of rares \.. I know it's a lot to ask, but I think on an RV stand point.. it may help people invest in a certain category of rare.. if that makes sense?