Keith Vaz's 'Sensible' Immigration Prediction

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://order-order.com/2015/02/26/keith-vazs-sensible-immigration-prediction/

Keith Vaz's 'Sensible' Immigration Prediction


https://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/vaz.jpg?w=900


Labour's Keith Vaz MP, 1 January 2014, when EU migration restrictions for Romanians and Bulgarians were lifted:


“This is an issue that does need to be put to the British people, so we don’t get this kind of drama and people rushing around thinking hundreds of thousands of people are going to arrive at Luton… We do need to look at this sensibly”

187,000: National Insurance Numbers issued to Romanians and Bulgarians in 2014, two thirds of whom arrived since 1 January 2014.

“We do need to look at this sensibly…”

Yet again Ukip & backbench Tories and some Labour proved right on another issue despite the giggling, slurs and name calling that they had over it from BBC alleged comedians, Keith Vaz, Nick Clegg and the media and mainstream political parties in general.

However bad the news, it is nice to be proved right on yet another issue and yes I will blow my own horn. Keith Vaz you LIAR.

[-:Undertaker:-]

And over 24 hours later, nothing from those who scoffed at suggestions that hundreds of thousands would come with the borders opening.

The silence is deafening.

[Chippiewill]

Not sure where 187,000 * 2/3 came from when the figure is 37,000 - which is only 13,000 more than before. Not sure why you keep citing Guido, he's a pathetic excuse for a journalist.

[FlyingJesus]

When absolutely zero sources are given it's difficult to reply properly, but looks as though you're lying and manipulating random numbers as usual anyway so no worries

[Chippiewill]

When absolutely zero sources are given it's difficult to reply properly, but looks as though you're lying and manipulating random numbers as usual anyway so no worries

Or rather plugging the guido IV right into his brain.

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/26/net-migration-to-uk-higher-than-when-coalition-took-office


The detailed breakdown of EU nationals working in Britain shows that most of the increase came from western European countries and Romania and Bulgaria, while other eastern European numbers remained steady.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2971239/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-No-country-cope-change.html


Significantly, there were 37,000 arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria in the year to September 2014 – just as, to the sneers of the BBC, the Mail predicted.

(Indeed, with 187,000 National Insurance numbers handed out to citizens of these two desperately poor countries last year, 37,000 may be a chronic underestimate).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31519319


The number of Romanians and Bulgarians working in the UK has risen by 15% year-on-year, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show.

In the last three months of 2014 there were 172,000 people working in the UK who had been born in one of the two eastern European countries.

The figure is 22,000 more than the same period in 2013.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/november-2014/sty-bulgarian-and-romanian-migration-to-the-uk.html

Figure 1: International Passenger Survey estimates of long-term immigration to the UK, Bulgarian and Romanian citizens, 2007 to 2014.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/eu2inflow_tcm77-387105.png


ONS also produce annual estimates of the resident population of the UK by country of birth and nationality. The latest available data was published in August 2014, for January to December 2013. This shows the estimated population of Romanian citizens in the UK was 128,000 compared to 102,000 in the previous year. The estimated resident population of Bulgarian citizens was 49,000 compared to 53,000 in the previous year.

Figures from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and National Insurance Numbers (NINos) allocated to adult overseas nationals provide information on employment of EU2 nationals. These sources suggest that over the last year there were increases in the number of EU2 nationals either seeking work or in employment.

In the year ending September 2014, NINo allocations to Romanian nationals increased by 86,000 (468%) to 104,000. Over the same period NINo allocations to Bulgarian nationals increased by 21,000 (205%) to 32,000 from the previous year. The NINo statistics represent a flow measure of non-UK nationals registering for a NINo.

Data from the LFS shows the number of Bulgarian and Romanian citizens in employment in the UK. The latest estimates show 167,000 Bulgarian and Romanian citizens employed in the UK in July to September 2014, a 33% increase on the same period in 2013.

Those of me who warned numbers would rise have been proved right, just as we were back in 2004 when the B'Liar Ministry got it 1000% wrong.

....


Not sure where 187,000 * 2/3 came from when the figure is 37,000 - which is only 13,000 more than before. Not sure why you keep citing Guido, he's a pathetic excuse for a journalist.

Yes but he's running the most popular political blog in the country and you are not... so.

Not saying I like all of what he writes anyway, far too close to the Conservatives for me but it's the comment section I love on his website.


When absolutely zero sources are given it's difficult to reply properly, but looks as though you're lying and manipulating random numbers as usual anyway so no worries

Oh dear.

[FlyingJesus]

Ok so now you've shown a source that supports exactly what Will said, and still totally failed beyond a Daily Mail quote to show where this 187,000 figure comes from. Oh dear indeed.

Also the graph seems to show that any time there's an increase it's of about the same magnitude, it's just that more recently the number of those staying is continuing rather than falling again after a short period - surely this is a good thing as opposed to having people come over to take advantage of the country and then leaving? Long-term settlement and work is far more desirable than benefits tourism

[-:Undertaker:-]

I knew someone would mention the Daily Mail despite me having also posted from the Beeb, Guardian and above all: the ONS.

The figures, percentages and the graph show the reality of what has happened: a huge surge. We were right to warn and we've been proven right.

Here's another graph that is a consequence of it all. Bearing in mind that the Tories have always led on this Q and 'owned' the issue since records began decades ago. Another historic shift.


http://www.ezimba.com/work/150301C/ezimba11145670714500.png

[Chippiewill]

1000 more per month is a huge surge? What drugs are you on Dan?

[-:Undertaker:-]

1000 more per month is a huge surge? What drugs are you on Dan?

The drugs I am on obviously give my common sense a boost considering I was right about opening the borders to Romania and Bulgaria.

As I said, the figures speak for themselves and despite Keith Vaz MP and fellow travellers like you lot saying that is was simply scaremongering that hundreds of thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians would turn up....... that's just exactly what happened. Like it did in 2004 and just as we warned.

Net immigration is now running at nearly 300,000 a year which is a CITY the size of Hull. Think impacts on healthcare, social services, education. It's absurd.

[Chippiewill]

Dan, this thread isn't about immigration as a whole. It's about the impact of lifting eurozone movement restrictions on Romanians and Bulgarians and the impact IS a little over 1000 a month extra. That is tiny. And considering most of them come here to do jobs people here don't want to do and don't use our health service, don't use our social services and don't use our education services (Since they just send the money back to their families) and still pay taxes. The impact on services is none, or if anything, positive.

[FlyingJesus]

I mentioned the Daily Mail because that's the only place you quoted that has the 187,000 figure - unsourced, of course. Try having an actual response once in a while

[-:Undertaker:-]

Dan, this thread isn't about immigration as a whole. It's about the impact of lifting eurozone movement restrictions on Romanians and Bulgarians and the impact IS a little over 1000 a month extra. That is tiny.

You can break it down however you like, from 1,000 a day to 1 every 24 hours. I don't care how you word it or play with the numbers other than the fact that the numbers have risen signifigantly (as shown by the figures and graph) which is exactly what we warned would happen and which is exactly what your side of the argument said wouldn't happen and had a right giggle at our 'scaremongering'. Well, now the statistics are in (and they are probably even worse than this given the reliability of government stats) and you're all left without a paddle up the creek. It is my turn to pour the scorn: this time rightly.

And my criticisms aren't reserved solely for Romanian and Bulgarian open borders either. The entire system is rotten to the core and reflects the complete opposite of public opinion in Britain. And that is wrong and it is high time it was fixed because patience is running out.


And considering most of them come here to do jobs people here don't want to do and don't use our health service, don't use our social services and don't use our education services (Since they just send the money back to their families) and still pay taxes. The impact on services is none, or if anything, positive.

The one-in, one-out excuse is flawed for a number of reasons -


A lot of those emigrating are highly skilled, a lot of those coming in are on low skills. A loss in other words.
Lower skilled jobs are actually a net drain on the treasury in social services used, including Child Benefit which immigrants are entitled to.
Even if contributions go up (debatable) it still doesn't account for the fact that public spending is planned YEARS in advance meaning areas which are hit hardest by heavy immigration - which is usually the case due to draw factors - are short of cash for services for years.
The social and cultural consequences on areas hit by mass immigration: social cohesion factors.
Crime. Are those leaving Britain, often educated and highly skilled, as likely to commit crime as low skilled migrants from second world countries?
The impact on wage rates with inflation for British workers, mainly the working classes on low skilled jobs.

As I have said countless times, I am not opposed to immigration. But I am opposed to huge numbers and even worse, open borders.


I mentioned the Daily Mail because that's the only place you quoted that has the 187,000 figure - unsourced, of course. Try having an actual response once in a while

The ONS graph should be clear enough for you to understand. See the line suddenly shoots upwards? The clue is in that.

[FlyingJesus]

Yeah I saw it and commented on it in my last post if you ever feel like actually reading what's written in these sorts of threads. What it didn't show in any way is where the 187,000 figure comes from, which is why I've been mentioning that as a point of contest. Feel free to try again any time you feel like it, and perhaps in future you could refrain from pretending that anyone other than you is delusional in any way