Sky News Prediction: The UK will vote to stay in the EU.

[abc]

The UK will vote to stay in the EU.

Let's say the EU referendum does take place in 2016. The latest polls suggest voters are evenly split and it's hard to predict the result before the campaigns have really begun.

But recent research by Lord Ashcroft suggests only two-fifths of voters are strongly decided one way or the other, meaning there is a largely persuadable electorate.

A lot will come down to the power of the campaigns.

What is fairly certain is that the result will be more pro-EU than the polls suggest. Risk-averse, undecided voters are always more likely to take what is perceived as the "safe" option and that is how staying in will be sold to the public. "In" seems more likely than "out".

http://news.sky.com/story/1613851/top-10-political-predictions-for-2016

[-:Undertaker:-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_refe rendum,_2014#2014

We shall see. All the polling shows that if David Cameron does not return with any meaningful concessions then we will be leaving.

Either way I believe Britain will leave the EU in the next ten years because of political integration which is needed because of the ongoing Eurozone crisis. The fact is that people like @snr (http://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=125189); aren't tackling the premise of the issue that is if Britain remains in the EU then it faces having to adapt to the following points...

[a] joining the Eurozone.
[b] signing up to a new integration treaty by 2020.
[c] abolishing common law within the next three decades.
[d] full political unification within the next few decades.
[f] the Eurozone having a permanent voting majority in the CoE.

If @snr (http://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=125189); truly wants all of the above (which is coming), why does he and others not come clean about where this is all heading?

Answer: he doesn't have a clue.

I'd love to hear an actual answer. Let's see if he has the knowledge or the balls to defend this project and where it is heading. Then let the people decide.

[The Don]

http://news.sky.com/story/1613851/top-10-political-predictions-for-2016

good news! i can't imagine us leaving, seems more like a vocal minority.

[-:Undertaker:-]

good news! i can't imagine us leaving, seems more like a vocal minority.

You're sounding very arrogant confident for somebody who argued against a referendum.

[abc]

Oh gosh, you are like a scare monger.

The UK will not join the Euro. Say what you want about the 2020 law to scare people, it is misleading.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Oh gosh, you are like a scare monger.

The UK will not join the Euro.

Britain will have to join the Eurozone at some point if the Single Market is to be completed and political union is to happen. How can political unification take place and be completed without the missing component of a single currency zone? There's a reason why the European Union demands of all its members (apart from two which have secured opt outs for now) to join the Eurozone currency union because it is a vital part of economic unification which will be followed by political unification.

In any case even if Britain managed to establish an understanding of a permanent opt out from the Euro, it would then mean by other point comes into play of a solid Eurozone-majority bloc in the EU which would mean we'd face being blocked from any decision making (not that we have much now anyway) as the Eurozone countries would vote as a solid bloc on all economic matters. To "play our part" in a future EU where the Eurozone is coming closer together, we would have no choice but to join the Eurozone.

Can you address what I have said there?


Say what you want about the 2020 law to scare people, it is misleading

Treaty changes and closer integration is coming even before 2020.

The French Minister Macron says so. (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/24/uk-plans-could-be-part-of-new-eu-treaty-says-french-minister)
The German Chancellor says so. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10397512/Angela-Merkel-pushes-for-EU-treaty-change.html)
The EU Commission President says so. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11537057/Juncker-blocks-EU-treaty-negotiations-until-after-2019.html)

Closer integration is coming whether you want to pretend or not. We're heading towards the exit door regardless of this referendum.

[The Don]

Britain will not have to join the Eurozone, we have an opt out. Anything said to the contrary of this is absolute rubbish.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Britain will not have to join the Eurozone, we have an opt out. Anything said to the contrary of this is absolute rubbish.

Why can you not answer anything properly?

I've just described the process of unification that the EU is undertaking which will have to, in the end, lead to Britain joining the Eurozone should we stay the full journey to economic and political union. I've also stated how even remaining out for now will leave us voiceless and powerless at the hands of the Eurozone bloc as we'll be locked into a permanent voting minority which means we would de facto then face the choice of joining the EZ and playing "a full part" or withdrawing, which you state you do not want.

Try and put some counter points to me like in an essay or exam rather than shaking your head and saying "thats rubbish".

[The Don]

Why can you not answer anything properly?

I've just described the process of unification that the EU is undertaking which will have to, in the end, lead to Britain joining the Eurozone should we stay the full journey to economic and political union. I've also stated how even remaining out for now will leave us voiceless and powerless at the hands of the Eurozone bloc as we'll be locked into a permanent voting minority which means we would de facto then face the choice of joining the EZ and playing "a full part" or withdrawing, which you state you do not want.


You haven't asked a question, unless i've missed it somewhere in your mindless conjecture?

You seem to have a knack for claiming things which simply aren't true. The EU could head down a lot of different routes, regardless of which path it takes we will not be forced into the Eurozone so it is simply false to pretend otherwise. The EU could diverge into two paths, those which wish for fuller integration and those which wish to remain less integrated, the EU could simply remain as it is, or the EU could head towards full integration/exit in which case we would have a vote on the matter and leave. Pretending the latter option is inevitable is disingenuous, although pretty much everything you post is.


Try and put some counter points to me like in an essay or exam rather than shaking your head and saying "thats rubbish".

I did. We have an opt out which is the only counter point needed. FYI this isn't an essay or exam, and generally speaking you are expected to counter sound logical points in an essay/exam, not the scaremongering ramblings of a crackpot.

[-:Undertaker:-]

You haven't asked a question, unless i've missed it somewhere in your mindless conjecture?

You seem to have a knack for claiming things which simply aren't true. The EU could head down a lot of different routes, regardless of which path it takes we will not be forced into the Eurozone so it is simply false to pretend otherwise. The EU could diverge into two paths, those which wish for fuller integration and those which wish to remain less integrated, the EU could simply remain as it is, or the EU could head towards full integration/exit in which case we would have a vote on the matter and leave. Pretending the latter option is inevitable is disingenuous, although pretty much everything you post is.

What are you talking about? You seem to know nothing about the European Union, what its officials are saying or where the treaties state it is going yet here you sit claiming I am mindless and talking rubbish. The European Union is heading in the shorter term towards close fiscal union integration between Eurozone member states. That is a fact. Now from that fact, you ought to address my point which is that as a result of this Britain will face being in a permanent voting minority on economic legislation as the Eurozone will begin and have to vote as a cohesive voting bloc around 2020 or before.

I am sure you will agree that Britain being locked into a permanent voting minority would be unacceptable and untennable. So there's two alternatives: either we join the Eurozone and play a "full part" in an ever closer integrated European Union, or we leave. If you believe like I do that joining the Eurozone is politically impossible and economically undesirable, then you also de facto support a position of leaving. If you say stay, then we will by the political realities of wanting to remain in the EU have to join the EZ.

Now please respond to that realpolitik which approaching us rather than calling me mindless. What have I said there that is incorrect?


I did. We have an opt out which is the only counter point needed. FYI this isn't an essay or exam, and generally speaking you are expected to counter sound logical points in an essay/exam, not the scaremongering ramblings of a crackpot.

We have an opt out but when we will be permanently outvoted by the EZ then we face a choice of joining the EZ or leaving the EU.

Which is it?

[The Don]

We have an opt out but when we will be permanently outvoted by the EZ then we face a choice of joining the EZ or leaving the EU.

More hypothetical conjecture. Unless you have a crystal ball you simply cannot comment on the voting patters of the future.

Anyway, as i've shown (and as abc; rightly pointed out), your claim "If Britain remains in the EU then it faces having to adapt to the following points...
[a] joining the Eurozone." is absolutely false. Scaremongering at its finest. Ciao.

[-:Undertaker:-]

More hypothetical conjecture. Unless you have a crystal ball you simply cannot comment on the voting patters of the future.

You really don't understand that closer EZ integration will mean a more solid EZ voting bloc in which we will be permanently outnumbered? :S


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