French 2017 Presidential Election: Round 1 Results

[-:Undertaker:-]

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Counting is now underway with exit polls projecting Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) and Marine Le Pen (Front National) to face off in the second round. Both main parties - the Republicans and Socialists - have failed to make the second ballot which in itself is remarkable and historic. Macron is sort of a Blair and Trudeau type figure and Le Pen is a mix of Farage and Corbyn.

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Exit polls thus far are putting Macron ahead but actual count suggesting otherwise....

[lemons]

The most interesting thing I learnt while watching BBC is that Macron met his current wife when he was 17 and she was his teacher and he said he was going to marry her while she already had a husband :o

[-:Undertaker:-]

Delighted with the Le Pen result myself and hopefully she can pull it off. If not this year then certainly 2022 because as sure as I am sitting here a President Macron will make President Hollande look popular in a few months time. Both main parties have been swept away, once the liberal boy wonder fails by not changing anything there will be nothing in her way for a 2022 run.

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Here's some data from last night.

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The most interesting thing I learnt while watching BBC is that Macron met his current wife when he was 17 and she was his teacher and he said he was going to marry her while she already had a husband :o

There's a lot of rumours that Macron is actually gay and in a relationship with the head of some Communications company - something like he's seen all time with him and they live together. Due to very strict privacy laws in France nothing has been said, but I certainly get that... vibe from him. He's a PR man to the core so wouldn't surprise me.

[scottish]

awkward, just realised marine le pen is a female and not the party name.

[-:Undertaker:-]

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Interesting and surprising development.

The first thing that came to my mind was that her personal brand is stronger than the still-toxic Front National brand. Removing the FN label from next to her name on the ballot paper will remove that apprehension some may have when placing their crosses in two weeks time, especially when she's seeking to capture votes from the Left (Melenchon) and the Right (Fillion). She's a very smart and strategic operator, so you can bet this has been in planning for a while - can only assume they've done polling and research on this which suggests this is the case.

In many ways this mirrors Vote Leave who didn't want to be seen as a Ukip front as this would alienate potential convert voters.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The final round takes place next weekend.

She's closing the polls slightly but still a 9% swing needed to bring it to 50/50. There's been criticism that Macron's campaign has been arrogant and rather lazy in assuming that it'll win. Reminds me of the Clinton campaign.

Le Pen on the other hand has been conducting a grassroots campaign where she's attempting to appeal to Melenchon and Fillion voters at the same time. The other day she was in Nice, the city stronghold of Fillion, to appeal to conservatives with a strong message on immigration. To capture Melenchon's voters (and he's refusing to endorse Macron) she's appealing to socialist heartlands in the north and east of France.

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Currently a lot are planning to abstain, especially on the Left, and many are undecided which could narrow the contest by a substantial margin. Assuming swing voters will go for the establishment option nowadays is incorrect, as we saw in the EU referendum and US Presidency Election 2017 the swing voters actually broke on the day for Leave and Republican.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Latest poll.

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The two of them debated tonight. A two and a half hour debate sitting down with little moderation. Intense.

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Nigel Farage has tonight finally openly endorsed Le Pen.

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