Boris "days away" from launching leadership bid as Tories descend into civil war

[-:Undertaker:-]

There has been much speculation over this, with some suggesting he and the ERG will wait until October/November - but the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Tom Watson MP (obviously well connected) suggests that this week will be the week. My own inkling is that it will happen sooner rather than later, as they should understand they cannot leave it too late before Christmas to make a move. It literally - and especially in regards to Boris - has to be now or never.

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Word has reached me from the Commons' tea room that Boris Johnson is about to go public with a full-frontal leadership bid to topple Theresa May and install himself in Downing Street.

Johnson, enabled by Tory election mastermind and new sidekick Lynton Crosby, has mapped out a timeline to power which will torpedo the PM's Chequers plan for Brexit.

Having scanned the Trump playbook for inspiration (see letterbox attack on Muslim women), Johnson cleared the decks on his personal life after his marriage break-up story appeared in The Sun on Friday.

I am told that Johnson's MP backers are now compiling the requisite 48 names required to send to the backbench 1922 Committee to trigger a no confidence vote in Mrs May. One source even says this will happen on Monday.

Look out for Johnson's Monday column in the Telegraph (invoice £5,000 a time) in which many of his colleagues expect him to fire the gun.

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Meanwhile in the ongoing civil war over Brexit, Chequers seems pretty much dead as both Leave and Remain MPs in the party have come out against it. A new group has also emerged, with Nigel Farage and David Davis heading it together - along with a fusion of Tory MPs and Ukip MEPs. The alliance isn't even pretend anymore as CCHQ loses control over every flank of the party.

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Boris' bet must now be to throw the dice, win a leadership election and resurrect the Canada++ FTA option which was originally May's plan and which the EU has said quite plainly it will agree to. Take it to the Commons in November, and dare it to be voted down in favour of a WTO leave.

Time for some leadership on this, as we now have exactly 201 days to go.

Thoughts?

[dbgtz]

still waiting for rees mogg to condem his adultery

he won't win

[-:Undertaker:-]

still waiting for rees mogg to condem his adultery

he won't win

If Boris gets on the members ballot he will win. His big problem is getting on the final ballot, he's not as popular amongst the parliamentary party as he is with the grassroots (think Corbyn). That said, if a lot of candidates stand then that would increase his chances of making it.

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The reaction of the Tory establishment towards the prospect of Boris yesterday and today reminds me strongly of the reaction of the Republican establishment towards Trump when he was first running in the primaries. It only helped him. And given Steve Bannon has been over and had discussions with Boris, we could see the same playbook play out in the coming weeks.

[dbgtz]

If Boris gets on the members ballot he will win. His big problem is getting on the final ballot, he's not as popular amongst the parliamentary party as he is with the grassroots (think Corbyn). That said, if a lot of candidates stand then that would increase his chances of making it.

lol comparing Corbyn to Boris

unrelated but I've noticed you like to use peoples full names a lot like with Tony Blair but you never seemed to call Boris by his... hmm



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The reaction of the Tory establishment towards the prospect of Boris yesterday and today reminds me strongly of the reaction of the Republican establishment towards Trump when he was first running in the primaries. It only helped him. And given Steve Bannon has been over and had discussions with Boris, we could see the same playbook play out in the coming weeks.

The difference between Trump and Boris is their political history.

besides we had a tory leadership election in 2016 and there was a clear majority, stop undermining the will of the people
:)

[lawrawrrr]

I can see him being the next PM but part of me is wondering is he really gonna want to do it NOW? Because let’s be honest, whatever kind of Brexit we get, the sitting PM is going to be blamed for it and get a lot of negativity. I always thought May would bow out in May and trigger a leadership election then.

[-:Undertaker:-]

lawrawrrr;

I read this morning that they're split over what to do. Half of them want to get out of the EU first and then replace the PM and with her replace her Chequers plan during the transition period, the other half want to remove her and her plan right now. Some are calculating that they don't want to risk a constitutional crisis and the potential loss of Brexit until we're out of the exit door.

I'm pretty relaxed because at the end of the day once we've passed 29th March 2019 we can always change the future relationship via treaty.


As of today also, only 200 days to go until we leave.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Storm clouds still surround the Prime Minister...

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I am just going to let this speak for itself. It’s a slightly edited but verbatim account of tonight’s weekly meeting of the Brexiter European Research Group faction of the Conservative Party.

It requires no additional comment from me - other than that I have multiple sources vouching for its veracity.

“We've just had an ERG mass meeting, 50 odd MPs present, where virtually the only topic of conversation for 40/50 mins was: how best do we get rid of her? What's the best way to use our letters?

Comments included: ‘Everyone I know says she has to go’, ‘she's a disaster’, ‘this can't go on’.

You might think that this is usual far for us, but it's not! Not in the mass weekly meeting, never in what's basically a public forum.

The truly amazing thing was they spoke about it so openly, in such an unabashed way, even though they could see the Whips sneak sitting there.

Really, really detailed discussion of the mechanics of how best you game the leadership election rules. And zero dissent.

No one, in a room of fifty Tory MPs even raised a squeak of objection. Not even a murmured pretence as good form. Nor did anyone preface their remarks with any 'sadly I've concluded formulae'.

We were in the Thatcher Room to add piquancy”.

And here’s more:

“It was truly mind blowing. You felt the ground opening up under your feet. The most amazing thing was that no one even bothered to mime a pretence of regret”.

Sounds to me like this is an ultimatum to the PM tonight.

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[Thordenhime]

https://media1.tenor.com/images/567743f727f328c9f7e38eed541db7ec/tenor.gif?itemid=8688468

[-:Undertaker:-]

Fantastic by JHB tonight on QT, especially at the end.

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Chequers needs to be dumped and we need a CETA aka Canadia++ FTA.

[dbgtz]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2018-09-12/Wells%20Brexit%201-01.jpg

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

[-:Undertaker:-]

So practically no movement still then and within the MoE.

Bit of Brexit bantz couple of days ago.

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[dbgtz]

10% difference = margin of error
<4% = clear will of the people?

dont half cherry pick do you

[-:Undertaker:-]

There's not 10% difference in the graph you posted let alone in all the polling on this. Indeed, the latest two Survation polls had it at 50-50 and 51-49.

In any case, we've had the referendum. Try again in 43 years like we had to.

[dbgtz]

granted it's not 10%, slight exaggeration, but still larger than the difference in the result
don't claim margin of error for one thing but not another

[FlyingJesus]

Has Boris launched yet it has definitely been days

[-:Undertaker:-]

I love this vote again "People's Vote" campaign - what was the last vote then, a non-person vote?


granted it's not 10%, slight exaggeration, but still larger than the difference in the result
don't claim margin of error for one thing but not another

The MoE is 3% and much of the post-referendum polling has been in that range.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Un ion_membership_referendum#Post%E2%80%93referendum_ polling

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[dbgtz]

I love this vote again "People's Vote" campaign - what was the last vote then, a non-person vote?


it's not a vote again if it's a different vote but ok
probably best not you criticise that given the whole will of the people shit but ok



The MoE is 3% and much of the post-referendum polling has been in that range.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Un ion_membership_referendum#Post%E2%80%93referendum_ polling

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just for clarity, margin of error isn't a fixed number and is worth looking at the actual report rather than assuming

it's also a bit silly to just look solely at one poll and assume it's an error and it is better to look at general trends, as in that wikipedia it's pretty clear for in favour of remaining for about a year now (on the yougov polls)

[-:Undertaker:-]

it's not a vote again if it's a different vote but ok

Well that depends on the referendum option. If, unlike the "Peoples Vote", the referendum was on No Deal (WTO) vs Chequers Deal, then yes it wouldn't be a re-run of the original vote. But if it's a re-run of Remain vs Leave as they want, then it is the typical EU response to any democratic vote of making people vote again. Only yesterday in the Salzburg summit did we have the Czech and Maltese PMs telling us to vote again - how DARE they.


probably best not you criticise that given the whole will of the people shit but ok

"Will of the people shit"

Otherwise known as democracy.


just for clarity, margin of error isn't a fixed number and is worth looking at the actual report rather than assuming

it's also a bit silly to just look solely at one poll and assume it's an error and it is better to look at general trends, as in that wikipedia it's pretty clear for in favour of remaining for about a year now (on the yougov polls)

In standard 1,000 polls the MoE is 3.1% or something.

And in favour of remaining... just like the polls before the referendum!

[dbgtz]

Well that depends on the referendum option. If, unlike the "Peoples Vote", the referendum was on No Deal (WTO) vs Chequers Deal, then yes it wouldn't be a re-run of the original vote. But if it's a re-run of Remain vs Leave as they want, then it is the typical EU response to any democratic vote of making people vote again. Only yesterday in the Salzburg summit did we have the Czech and Maltese PMs telling us to vote again - how DARE they.


Remain should be an option, but I will agree it shouldn't just be remain vs leave should it happen.
Equally chequers should not be an option as it is unworkable.



"Will of the people shit"

Otherwise known as democracy.


Except you know it's misleading as a) trends are favouring remain and b) those 52% voted to leave, but did not vote on what leave meant



In standard 1,000 polls the MoE is 3.1% or something.

And in favour of remaining... just like the polls before the referendum!

most polls seem to be more mid 1k which would mean a moe <3%
also pretty silly to look at pre and post referendum given the different circumstances

[-:Undertaker:-]

Well, Chequers is dead tonight after the summit with the PM left looking like an utter fool.

Ironically, the EU and the Brexiteers are now in full agreement with one another. That Britain should fully leave, and conclude a Canada++ FTA with the EU following a transition. It's only Number 10 who think otherwise - and Olly Robbens aka Grima Wormtongue in the Civil Service.

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Remain should be an option, but I will agree it shouldn't just be remain vs leave should it happen.
Equally chequers should not be an option as it is unworkable.

Let's say though in this continuity-remainer world, that they do make us vote again. What do you think is going to happen? Seriously now.


Except you know it's misleading as a) trends are favouring remain and b) those 52% voted to leave, but did not vote on what leave meant

People didn't know what Leave meant?

And Remain sit there, stupidly scratching their heads, wondering why they did not win.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Something is up it seems this afternoon.

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Last time she did this we had a General Election...

General Election? Resignation? No Deal?