Breaking: Tory Leadership Challenge - PM to face Vote of Confidence TONIGHT

[-:Undertaker:-]

Last night we were hearing rumours from Downing Street, Whitehall and Buckingham Palace...

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And just now it has been confirmed.

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In this secret ballot of Tory MPs tonight, she needs 50% of MPs (158) to support her to stay on. However as the tweet above states, realistically anything over 100 against her will make it very difficult for her to stay on. Other considerations for MPs are;

- If she stays on the DUP seem likely to withdraw their support meaning the government collapses.
- Her EU Deal stands zero chance of renegotiation with Brussels meaning it won't pass the House of Commons.
- If she wins, she can't be challenged for another year which means she could very well be leading Tories into another GE.

I have to say as a Tory member, I want her to go.

Thoughts?

[-:Undertaker:-]

PM says she will fight on.

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[Jarkie]

This is just becoming a joke now. No wonder the pound is slowly becoming worthless!

[-:Undertaker:-]

Cabinet and many MPs saying they support her. But remember this is a secret ballot.

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[dbgtz]

how dare some Conservatives go against the will of the people

interesting that it only takes 0.00039% of Conservative members to trigger this and just under 0.0013% to make or break her support
democratic

btw undertaker I see you ommitted this but great turnout to the brexit means exit (somehow actually worse than brexit means brexit) protest apparently a whole 2000 people turned out, only 698000 to go. Quite telling really

[-:Undertaker:-]

Here's the result. The PM survives...

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The question now is, will she try to carry on and can she?

The chances of a GE very soon just increased a lot.

[dbgtz]

that's actually more than I think a lot of people were expecting
63% majority thats brexit super mega landslide numbers you should be supporting the pm as the will of the people have spoken stop talking her down, if we all get behind her she will do a great job despite everything that's already happened

[-:Undertaker:-]

that's actually more than I think a lot of people were expecting

Indeed, and as someone pointed out - 120 of those 200 are on the government payroll (ministers, secretaries etc).

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Usually this would be resignation territory but I can't see her going.


63% majority thats brexit super mega landslide numbers you should be supporting the pm as the will of the people have spoken stop talking her down, if we all get behind her she will do a great job despite everything that's already happened

Well funnily enough you don't see me calling for a second vote, do you?

[FlyingJesus]

Shit result for everyone tbh. Shit for the country because now she'll try to steamroll ahead with the deal that no-one on either side likes, shit for the party because it shows that they're not listening to people and are largely going with whoever signs their cheques, and shit for May herself who can literally get nothing done because none of her plans will ever pass her own party let alone a full Commons vote

[dbgtz]

Well funnily enough you don't see me calling for a second vote, do you?

no you're just saying she should resign anyway as if she had lost because the difference between support and lack of is still too large
can you really not see any parallel here at all

[-:Undertaker:-]

@FlyingJesus (https://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=24753);

Indeed, and the clock is running down with 106 days left. All the DUP in particular have to do now isn't even a VoNC in the government - simply defeat the agreement, along with the ERG + Labour etc when it comes to the HoC in January and sit on their hands until March 29th 2019. En route to No Deal. The (very narrow and unlikely) road to Remain has pretty much closed up now.

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no you're just saying she should resign anyway as if she had lost because the difference between support and lack of is still too large
can you really not see any parallel here at all

I don't see a parallel no. If I were calling for another vote, then maybe you would have a point. But i'm not. So you don't have a point.

And have I called for her to resign? No I have not. I want them to dither until 29th March 2019, with or without the PM, if I am honest.

[-:Undertaker:-]

This was an analysis I found interesting.


I wonder, actually, if the DUP could elect to work with Labour to intentionally bring down the Government, if Theresa May hesitates to bring the Meaningful Vote forward until mid or late January? Assuming that the deal still contains the backstop, they could veto it and then kick her out on principle - after which there would be no majority for any alternate Government, and the FTPA would force a dissolution.

Whilst there's no Parliament to legislate for the repeal of the EU Withdrawal Act and other Brexit legislation we can't put off Brexit - and, as has been pointed out to me, once you get far enough into January there's probably not enough time left in the timetable set out by the FTPA to dissolve Parliament, call a fresh election, have the election result verified, have Parliament meet and be sworn in, assemble a Government, conduct the state opening, and then finally to guillotine through the necessary repeals and revoke A50 before the clock runs out.

One could argue about the exact date when all of this becomes impossible, but I suggested that if May were to leave the meaningful vote until January 21st then a General Election couldn't be held any earlier than March 14th, which probably wouldn't leave enough time for all the other necessary steps to be completed before Brexit day.

I've previously thought that the DUP would keep the Tories in power for as long as May couldn't get her deal through, both to try to ensure they get the Brexit they want and to stop Corbyn from getting into power. But maybe waiting until a strategic moment like late January and then asking for a VoNC themselves would help to guarantee key aims for them? Once Parliament is dissolved then time runs out for desperate pro-Remain MPs on both sides of the House to attempt a realignment, even if they want to, and it becomes impossible for Brexit to be avoided. The DUP get a clean Brexit, and the threat of regulatory divergence for Northern Ireland is permanently removed.

Now, is there anything else I'm missing, or could this mean that the Remainers are almost out of time? There's only around a month until this potential point of no return, and that includes the Christmas recess.

[FlyingJesus]

DUP won't side with Labour because of the possibility of them bowing to the pressures of Referendum 2: Electric Boogaloo, even though ironically their leader is more pro Brexit than the blue team's boss. Realistically the only way to avoid No Deal at the moment is for May to actually get a decent deal worked out that everyone agrees to, which obviously isn't going to happen. It's already farrrrrrrrr too late to set up a genuine and fair referendum scenario that could result in not leaving the EU - you can't do May's Deal vs No Deal vs No Brexit because that's openly splitting the Leave vote, so the only fair options for a "PeoPLe'S VoTe!!!1" would be between May's Deal and No Deal, a choice the government aren't going to hand over to the public. They couldn't ever do May's Deal vs No Brexit because No Deal always has to be an option this far through, as accepted by the EU themselves

[-:Undertaker:-]

So the PM has been back to Brussels...

And got precisely nothing. When are we finally going to tell these people to fuck right off?

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[dbgtz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-MhfGqNbhw


This was an analysis I found interesting.

Not that interesting as it ignores the A50 extension offer in the event of a GE (which I believe is something the EU has offered) and the fact we can now outright revoke A50.



I don't see a parallel no. If I were calling for another vote, then maybe you would have a point. But i'm not. So you don't have a point.

And have I called for her to resign? No I have not. I want them to dither until 29th March 2019, with or without the PM, if I am honest.

"usually this would be resignation territory but I don't see her going" i.e. she should resign
then you have the likes of rees mogg outright saying she should resign because apparently a 67% win isn't enough but 52% is a landslide
also let's not ignore the irony of hating the idea of another referendum but having a vote of no confidence in May, again

democracy when it suits you eh

[-:Undertaker:-]

This was great.

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Not that interesting as it ignores the A50 extension offer in the event of a GE (which I believe is something the EU has offered) and the fact we can now outright revoke A50.

To revoke Article 50 you now need a government to support an Act of Parliament to do so, all thanks to Gina Miller. Where do the numbers in Parliament come from to VONC the government and install a pro-revoke A50 government? That means a General Election would also required, returning a pro-rev A50 party with a workable majority. Meanwhile as this takes weeks/months, tick tock.

If this government ever moved to revoke A50 it would immediately trigger a VONC.


"usually this would be resignation territory but I don't see her going" i.e. she should resign

That's an observation.


then you have the likes of rees mogg outright saying she should resign because apparently a 67% win isn't enough but 52% is a landslide
also let's not ignore the irony of hating the idea of another referendum but having a vote of no confidence in May, again

democracy when it suits you eh

You seem to be arguing with me over things I have not said. I have not said the Prime Minister should still go. I have not said another vote of confidence in her should be called, which it cannot be anyway. And I have never called 52% a landslide - although it is a majority so a win.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Building on what I posted above about the clock running down, a bit of a long - but interesting - read below.


Not only is Theresa May a bloody difficult woman, she’s also a bloody difficult woman to shift. The ERG, with all their customary Keystone Cops planning, proved once again this week that when it comes to continuing her mission, the PM has a Terminator-like resilience to her and that it takes rather more than saying nasty things in posh voices to blow her off course.

Their failure, however, was not May’s success. The vote came about in the first place not just because of the pulled Meaningful Vote in the Commons on the Brexit Withdrawal Arrangement, but also because having declared to parliament that she understood its objections to the Deal, she then went off to Brussels defending what she’d previously agreed, including the necessity of the backstop. That was never going to generate confidence among critics on her benches.

Even so, she won. Not a convincing win – 117 MPs voting against her is a sizable block – but enough for the time being. But if that has removed one uncertainty (which it hasn’t quite – see below), the main one remains: the EU will not re-open the deal and parliament will not ratify it.

This presents a major problem for both the PM and Britain. It also poses a major problem for Europe and Ireland in particular. The lack of worry seems to be down to a misplaced assumption that a herd of unicorns will rescue the situation and prompt the government to reverse, or at least defer, Brexit one way or another.

The evidence suggests otherwise. May was always predictable: she would seek a revised deal, with the aim of having it ratified by the Commons in mid- to late-January. Any sooner would be impossible to get anything meaningful; any later would run into serious timetabling problems with both UK and EU law and processes.

Likewise, the EU was always predictable: it would offer clarifications while refusing to re-open the text, unless there was a major shift in UK politics – and no such shift has occurred. May was therefore always going to be unable to satisfy the critics on her own benches because non-binding interpretations cannot override the hard copy of the Agreement; hence, their fears could not be assuaged that way. Cue: seven weeks of tail-chasing.

Where does that leave us? In one sense, we’ll be no further forward. The same arguments will apply, the parliamentary maths will be the same and the red lines will be what they were (or are).

What will have changed is time. By late January, it will be extremely tight for Labour to be able to force a general election in time for 29 March. If the government was No Confidenced following the Brexit vote, the law requires at least seven weeks before polling day. That implies a polling day of 14 or 21 March. It also implies Labour having to go into what really would be a Brexit election with a meaningful policy, which at present doesn’t really exist. They could argue for another referendum but to what end: what would Labour support in that referendum? They could argue for striking their own Six Tests deal but surely Starmer must be aware that those tests are designed to fail the Tory policy, not to pass a Labour one. In truth, the Labour leadership has little incentive to generate an election before Brexit is settled – which is presumably one reason why it hasn’t tried so far.

But if the Labour leadership is willing to pay the price of Brexit in order to facilitate a Labour government, not all its MPs will be. That is Theresa May’s chance to salvage her deal.

By late-January, the prospect of a No Deal exit will loom large. The loose talk of referendums will have receded among those aware of the logistical difficulties in delivering one within the space of weeks. The choice will be hardening towards her deal or no deal. We know that the parliamentary Tory Party is deeply split but that might be the moment when Labour’s divisions reach a similar level; when enough Labour MPs decide that any deal is better than nothing and row in behind the PM. After all, to vote against it is not a risk-free option; it could easily mean to be complicit in delivering the chaos.

In truth, the only way in which May can deliver any deal is with the support of substantial numbers of opposition MPs, which almost certainly means Labour ones. This would, of course, neatly mirror the picture when Britain joined the EEC. It would also, for Tories, raise uncomfortable institutional memories of the Corn Laws split.

This is where the pivot truly lies. If May loses that vote, then Britain is set for a No Deal Brexit. There will no doubt be calls for an A50 extension or revocation; for referendums or general elections; for further talks and for different models. They’d all come to nothing. With the Commons unable to agree and the EU unwilling to change the offer, talks couldn’t succeed and may not even happen. Nor would a general election be attractive to any of the parties, as explained above (and would surely be viewed as a distraction by the public). And while a referendum might offer some superficial attractions, it would be difficult to legislate for (what questions and in which order?), it would come with the major risk of endorsing a No Deal, could of itself alienate a large part of the electorate, and would be unlikely to generate any better debate than the 2016 vote. No, if the January vote goes down, No Deal becomes highly likely.

On the other hand, if the deal is endorsed, against dozens of Tory and DUP votes but with an even higher number of Labour ones, May’s own position becomes doubly insecure. First, she may lose her leadership. Ignore the fact that the Tory leadership rules say that she is safe for 12 months. That rule is part of that section owned by the 1922 Committee and can be amended easily and as required – as Graham Brady proved when he confirmed changes to the timetable that would have followed had May lost the vote this week. All the 12-month rule does is make opponents jump through two hoops rather than one. But in the event that there was intense and widespread anger against her, it would be little help as a fireguard.

The even bigger risk however would be the DUP. If the deal as it stands, with the backstop, is endorsed then May loses the DUP’s support permanently. That means an inevitable general election at a time of Labour’s choosing but probably in the Spring.

May is like a chess player left with only king and queen, while her opponent(s) hold multiple pieces and pawns. She can manoeuvre and defend and fight off attacks for a while – indeed, if her opponents make an error, she might even make a brief gain – but sooner or later, weight of numbers will leave her nowhere to go.

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[dbgtz]

To revoke Article 50 you now need a government to support an Act of Parliament to do so, all thanks to Gina Miller. Where do the numbers in Parliament come from to VONC the government and install a pro-revoke A50 government? That means a General Election would also required, returning a pro-rev A50 party with a workable majority. Meanwhile as this takes weeks/months, tick tock.

If this government ever moved to revoke A50 it would immediately trigger a VONC.


You seem to have ignored the part where they offered us an extension, I believe until July, which is plenty of time.



That's an observation.


seems more like an expectation
seems to be 67% isn't enough for you



You seem to be arguing with me over things I have not said. I have not said the Prime Minister should still go. I have not said another vote of confidence in her should be called, which it cannot be anyway. And I have never called 52% a landslide - although it is a majority so a win.

Did you really just say that to me without a hint of irony? You realise for years you have argued with points nobody actually made?

I'd go find an example of you saying 52 is a landslide (or something along those lines) but I really can't be arsed

[-:Undertaker:-]

You seem to have ignored the part where they offered us an extension, I believe until July, which is plenty of time.

And again, any move to that would immediately trigger a VONC and collapse the government before it managed to do so. It is Remoaners who need to VONC the government, trigger a GE, assemble a Remain government and then win a referendum - all of which it will take the stars to align for you to get there. We Leavers, having got the process locked into law with the help of Gina Miller, simply need to sit back and wait.


seems more like an expectation
seems to be 67% isn't enough for you

Seems like you're determined to make up my views.

Like I said, so long as the clock runs down to 29th March 2019 I couldn't really care who was in 10 Downing Street.


Did you really just say that to me without a hint of irony? You realise for years you have argued with points nobody actually made?

I'd go find an example of you saying 52 is a landslide (or something along those lines) but I really can't be arsed

Brexit really is driving you all mad, isn't it? There's 104 days to go and what the whole process has really exposed for me is how many pay lip service to democracy but don't believe at all in it, including you. Indeed, I recall before the referendum took place you were telling us all how there shouldn't even be a referendum happening on this topic yet nowadays you seem to be arguing for a referendum. Now isn't that funny?

What I find totally baffling after all this time, is the continuity-Remain campaign's total lack of having learnt anything from the referendum. They seem to be under the assumption that if they make the stupid public vote again, they'll get their desired outcome - as though 2016 was some kind of fluke or random event.

No my friend, this was always inevitable because we simply don't want to be ruled from abroad - in a nutshell. And it doesn't matter how many times you guys roll out Tony Blair, Richard Branson, Alistair Campbell and other assorted discredited Blairites, that is a political fact.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DuYQ_CyXQAA73dN.jpg

[dbgtz]

Brexit really is driving you all mad, isn't it? There's 104 days to go and what the whole process has really exposed for me is how many pay lip service to democracy but don't believe at all in it, including you. Indeed, I recall before the referendum took place you were telling us all how there shouldn't even be a referendum happening on this topic yet nowadays you seem to be arguing for a referendum. Now isn't that funny?

What I find totally baffling after all this time, is the continuity-Remain campaign's total lack of having learnt anything from the referendum. They seem to be under the assumption that if they make the stupid public vote again, they'll get their desired outcome - as though 2016 was some kind of fluke or random event.

No my friend, this was always inevitable because we simply don't want to be ruled from abroad - in a nutshell. And it doesn't matter how many times you guys roll out Tony Blair, Richard Branson, Alistair Campbell and other assorted discredited Blairites, that is a political fact.


what has any of that got to do with what you're replying to
you literally just made up a bunch of stuff to reply to in response to my reply of you saying I just put words in your mouth, arguing against me arguing for a second referendum yet I have never said that

[-:Undertaker:-]

Pushback today from both main parties frontbenches against the re-run referendum despots.

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Increasingly seeing the despots demanding May's WA vote be brought forward before Christmas break, and as I said and now Carswell...

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