Managed No-Deal preparations stepped up: Chancellor to release £2bn for Govt Dept's

[-:Undertaker:-]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6501347/Hammond-unlock-2billion-no-deal-funding.html

103 days to go: Chancellor Hammond to unlock £2 billion in No Deal funding to prepare Britain for the rejection of PM May's Withdrawal Agreement

- Chancellor set to open £2billion of No Deal funding to bidding from ministers
- Up to £500million set to go to the Home Office to tackle issues at the border
- Customs systems are set to have £25million ploughed into extra preparations
- So far around £500million has been spent preparing no deal contingencies


https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/polopoly_fs/1.1159699!/fileimage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_620/philip-hammond-holds-the-dispatch-box-containing-the-budget-outside-11-downing-street-before-presenting-an-annual-budget-statement-in-parliament-in-london-on-oct-29-2018.jpg




Chancellor Philip Hammond will unlock £2billion for no deal preparations this week as Theresa May makes little progress toward getting her deal agreed by MPs. The Prime Minister will tomorrow report back to MPs on the failure of last week's EU summit to create the necessary legal assurances to calm rebels.

On Tuesday the Cabinet is due to discuss the details of no deal preparations with less than four months until exit day.

The Chancellor will invite ministers to bid for a slice of the funding to get their departments ready for the prospect of exit without a transition period on March 29. The Sun said around £500million is expected to be ploughed into the Home Office to deal with potential problems at the border. Customs systems are set to benefit from another £25million in a bid to ensure the ports can function in no deal. Environment Secretary Michael Gove is set to have £400million to spend on agriculture, fisheries and food-related policy areas. Trade Secretary Liam Fox will spend £100million hiring trade negotiators around the world in case a raft of new trade deals are needed urgently.

Finally some sense! Looks like it is being stepped up now.

I read on Twitter reports of companies being sent instructions (not guidelines) on preparations for No Deal in regards to customs and border requirements that will come into force on the 29th March 2019 between Britain and the EU in the now-likely event of No Deal. My friend also works for a large chemical company that heavily trades with Europe, and they had a meeting two weeks ago discussing the plan the company had in such an event. My friend, initially a Remainer but now pro-Brexit, told me there was no worrying, just plans.

Meanwhile amid the rumours...

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For reference, £2 billion is a lot smaller than the £39bn bill the EU is demanding and the £16bn we hand it every year. Bargain!

Thoughts?

[dbgtz]

part of the 39 billion is to cover the costs of things we have already agreed to as with any contract, including MEP pensions which mr farage will gladly pocket
you can't start your new wave of "open for business" by tearing up your existing contracts, that's like going to a bank to take out a loan immediately after defaulting on your debts
it's also not 16bn by any measure as seen here: https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
it's also not without precedent this will go over budget
and without a deal (and even with one) it's almost certainly going to take a hit to gdp which pretty much nullifies the economic argument you've just made
and you will probably say "oh project fear" or something when really, if you break down the fact gdp is just economic activity, then any kind of border delay is going to hurt gdp as you effectively end up trading less in the same amount of time (plus any lost potential custom due to customs fees and such)

now I'm thinking you will probably bring up some other EU country as if that is somehow relevant to what I've just said when it isn't

now at this point you're probably going to say "but the referendum wasn't about the economy!!" which is completely irrelevant to what I've just said as the point you've made is related to the economy

let's also not forget the non-gdp issues that will arise with no deal, such as with aviation

also quite frankly it sounds like you made your friend up for the purpose of trying to find a positive economic side to this, when literally no news article puts it in a positive light

[-:Undertaker:-]

part of the 39 billion is to cover the costs of things we have already agreed to as with any contract, including MEP pensions which mr farage will gladly pocket

£39bn for PENSIONS!? And programmes like Galileo that we're being frozen out of? That's nearly as big as our Education budget!

I say No Deal and No Thanks! Let's spend that money on our hospitals, schools and pensioners instead of Mr Juncker's EU wine cellar.


you can't start your new wave of "open for business" by tearing up your existing contracts, that's like going to a bank to take out a loan immediately after defaulting on your debts
it's also not 16bn by any measure as seen here: https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
it's also not without precedent this will go over budget

More scare stories, here's Remoaner and Tony Blair's best friend Sir Richard Branson the other day at it too, taking it to new levels.

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and without a deal (and even with one) it's almost certainly going to take a hit to gdp which pretty much nullifies the economic argument you've just made
and you will probably say "oh project fear" or something when really, if you break down the fact gdp is just economic activity, then any kind of border delay is going to hurt gdp as you effectively end up trading less in the same amount of time (plus any lost potential custom due to customs fees and such)

Any fees they apply can be applied back. Their call.


now I'm thinking you will probably bring up some other EU country as if that is somehow relevant to what I've just said when it isn't

now at this point you're probably going to say "but the referendum wasn't about the economy!!" which is completely irrelevant to what I've just said as the point you've made is related to the economy

let's also not forget the non-gdp issues that will arise with no deal, such as with aviation

Interesting on the aviation point which I have seen mentioned before, the EU needs to secure an agreement with us on this or else their flights to Canada and the United States won't be able to fly over our airspace and will be considerably longer and more expensive.


also quite frankly it sounds like you made your friend up for the purpose of trying to find a positive economic side to this, when literally no news article puts it in a positive light

Not at all.

I have two friends who voted Remain and who are now pro-No Deal, and one friend who voted Remain and is now indifferent.

[dbgtz]

£39bn for PENSIONS!? And programmes like Galileo that we're being frozen out of? That's nearly as big as our Education budget!

I say No Deal and No Thanks! Let's spend that money on our hospitals, schools and pensioners instead of Mr Juncker's EU wine cellar.


yes it's called agreements the UK has agreed to
you seem to have a worringly lack of understand in how contracts work

it's quite simple, you can't start this crusade for a "self led" global trade (which I do not believe we are doing) by shitting on our existing agreements



More scare stories, here's Remoaner and Tony Blair's best friend Sir Richard Branson the other day at it too, taking it to new levels.

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None of what I said is a scare story
you will look unappealing for trade if you are shown not to honour agreements (high risk of no return)
it isn't 16 billion as demonstrated in my source
and it isn't without precedent for pretty much any major project to go over budget



Any fees they apply can be applied back. Their call.


irrelevant to what I just said
I can only assume you can't refute that this is economically damaging



Interesting on the aviation point which I have seen mentioned before, the EU needs to secure an agreement with us on this or else their flights to Canada and the United States won't be able to fly over our airspace and will be considerably longer and more expensive.


the only person I can see mentioning this is David Davis who has been proven to talk out of his arse



Not at all.

I have two friends who voted Remain and who are now pro-No Deal, and one friend who voted Remain and is now indifferent.

and I have 3 friends who voted to leave and now would remain
see how easy that is

your point is meaningless without any actual source

[-:Undertaker:-]

So me and David Davis MP are talking out of our arses are we?

This literally just happened.

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Another Remoan scare story up in smoke. :')

Like I say, this will be replicated across sectors as No Deal approaches.

And we'll wake up on the 30th March 2019 as we did the 24th June 2016.

[dbgtz]

you seem to have ignored the rest of my post, so I can only assume you agree that you were wrong with all of that

undertaker you really need to stop calling genuine concern a scare story, but the fact is this is hardly no deal if there is a deal in this part
the fact is if we had followed the wishes of some people and just dropped out without these 2 years stuff like this would not have happened for a fair time given it has been about 1 3/4 years?

[-:Undertaker:-]

you seem to have ignored the rest of my post, so I can only assume you agree that you were wrong with all of that

There's no point arguing over what my friend said, either believe me or don't.


undertaker you really need to stop calling genuine concern a scare story, but the fact is this is hardly no deal if there is a deal in this part
the fact is if we had followed the wishes of some people and just dropped out without these 2 years stuff like this would not have happened for a fair time given it has been about 1 3/4 years?

I was always in favour of Article 50 but here's two instances now regarding aviation and customs checks, with No Deal seemingly the result, where the warnings of "cliff edge" and "chaos" are just nonsense peddled by people who are desperate to make us all vote again.

Here's my next prediction, in the face of No Deal we'll quickly come to similar mini-agreements on tariffs, residency and so on.


The UK has negotiated an agreement to stay in the Common Transit Convention (CTC) even if there is no Brexit deal between the two sides. This means that goods can continue to be transported freely between the UK and the EEA with customs declarations and import duties only being paid when the goods arrive at their final destination. It is particularly important for the Republic of Ireland which transports the majority of its exports to the EU across the UK “land bridge”. More evidence that sensible contingency deals will be signed in a “managed no deal” scenario…

Do you agree with me that No Deal, if managed now, can work out fine?

And secondly that it is a preferable outcome to the PM's Deal, which would trap us in a backstop and cost £39bn?

[-:Undertaker:-]

101 days: It's ramping up.

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It does appear to be Downing Street's intention now to run the clock down.


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[lawrawrrr]

No deal is going to cost this country an absolute fortune. This entire freaking process has already cost the country an absolute fortune. And fuck all the people over here working, they can just GO BACK HOME WHERE THEY BELONG!!111!!!

but omg no deal how great xxxxx




look i disagree with the referendum result but whatever, a slim majority of the country voted to leave so fine we're leaving but no deal dpesnt seem to benefit anyone in my opinion based on what i've read

i'm sure i'm about to be told all the ways i'm wrong but that's my opinion

[-:Undertaker:-]

lawrawrrr;

The remarkable thing is, the money already spent on this and what will be spent on this is still a fraction of our annual EU contribution.

[dbgtz]

There's no point arguing over what my friend said, either believe me or don't.


I said a lot more than that


I was always in favour of Article 50 but here's two instances now regarding aviation and customs checks, with No Deal seemingly the result, where the warnings of "cliff edge" and "chaos" are just nonsense peddled by people who are desperate to make us all vote again.

Here's my next prediction, in the face of No Deal we'll quickly come to similar mini-agreements on tariffs, residency and so on.


but how exactly is making arrangements a no deal
it is a deal


Do you agree with me that No Deal, if managed now, can work out fine?

And secondly that it is a preferable outcome to the PM's Deal, which would trap us in a backstop and cost £39bn?

no I think a lot of people are going to suffer and in some cases die
a lot of people are struggling as is, even if we manage better trade deals in x years times a lot of people can't exactly sit around and wait

the sad thing is people will get angry at the results of this but somehow it will all be the EUs fault...

but it's fine because you'll be in spain and not feel the effects
unless spain decide to be harsh on the now non eu citizens most of which didn't even get a say despite the potential for their entire life been uprooted
but thats fine
its all fine, at the very least their kids can get dual citizenship like nigel farages kids :)

[-:Undertaker:-]

Some more news tweets below. And guys, we've just this second reached...


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/ae/Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg/23px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png 100 DAYS UNTIL INDEPENDENCE https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/ae/Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg/23px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png

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but how exactly is making arrangements a no deal
it is a deal

Because there's no underlying framework and we're out on WTO terms. Yes, loose ends are tied up so a series of "mini-deals" are what will/is happening. It was obvious that in the event of No Deal, this would always happen. It's not like we are at war, is it?

The collapse of the Soviet Union resulted in quick agreements tying up loose ends between the newly independent states and USSR (Russia).


no I think a lot of people are going to suffer and in some cases die
a lot of people are struggling as is, even if we manage better trade deals in x years times a lot of people can't exactly sit around and wait

Oh now we've gotten onto predictions of Brexit deaths. Hysterical nonsense.


the sad thing is people will get angry at the results of this but somehow it will all be the EUs fault...

Had the EU not demanded to lock us into a backstop that it would use (as it said it would) to extract future concessions out of us on Gibraltar and our fishing waters, then maybe a deal could have been reached. But instead, our "friends" in Brussels behaved as they have always behaved and took our weakling politicians to the cleaners for every penny they can squeeze out of this country.

Although thanks to Gina Miller - we can now reject this in Parliament and just leave via the No Deal default.


but it's fine because you'll be in spain and not feel the effects
unless spain decide to be harsh on the now non eu citizens most of which didn't even get a say despite the potential for their entire life been uprooted
but thats fine
its all fine, at the very least their kids can get dual citizenship like nigel farages kids :)

I don't vote based on what is best for me, but what is best for my country.

I am not in the slightest bit concerned I will have to leave Spain. That said, even if I *knew* I would have to leave as a result I would absolutely be for it because this is more important than me. My uncle, who works for an aerospace company, was warned by the company during the referendum that a Leave vote would result in the company laying people off - he didn't believe it and nor did the majority of staff, and they were right as it turned out to be complete horseshit, but he said if it did then he would *still* vote to Leave for the good of the country.

I believe there will be no sacrifice, but even if there were a material sacrifice - I would happily pay it for independence and democracy.

[Jarkie]

@lawrawrrr (https://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=61966);

The remarkable thing is, the money already spent on this and what will be spent on this is still a fraction of our annual EU contribution.

This is quite a crazy thought. But you are indeed right.

[Zak]

Well I guess we'll see what happens. People talk about it like it's the end of days lol.

[dbgtz]

undertaker given how you consistently ignore my economic points, most likely because you can't refute it and simply admit someone else being wrong you just ignore it and try to shift the topic to one you think you can win, despite the original post being economic, I refuse to reply any further

[-:Undertaker:-]

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More evidence that mini-agreements and provisional measures will be applied on both sides to avoid disruption. Managed No Deal.


undertaker given how you consistently ignore my economic points, most likely because you can't refute it and simply admit someone else being wrong you just ignore it and try to shift the topic to one you think you can win, despite the original post being economic, I refuse to reply any further

You're not making any points by telling me GDP will drop and people will die. Outline for me *how* GDP will drop and *how* people will die and then maybe I can reply to something. Simply repeating discredited Treasury warnings just doesn't cut the mustard. Tell us *how*.

[dbgtz]

I did outline it and did not mention any treasury reports as far as I can see

[-:Undertaker:-]

99 days.

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I did outline it and did not mention any treasury reports as far as I can see

Looked back, only one I can really see is regarding border post controls. So i'll address it.

In terms of cargo coming in from Dover and customs controls, I cannot see how this can't be coped with for the reason that customs controls are already operating for any and cargo from Switzerland, Russia, Norway and other non-EU countries. That customs system already exists so could be expanded to simply include EU countries too. Vice-versa this has already happened, with French and Dutch authorities taking on more customs staff.

Now let's say there's not enough time to have such a system fully operational. Well, as the tweet above regarding the EU's intentions outlines, we can simply unilaterally choose, like them, not to apply customs controls to EU cargo until such a time where by we are able to operate a system that can cope with the volume of imports at Dover and through the tunnel.

The idea of mile-long queues and chaos at Dover is OTT. We have 3-months approaching, and we always have the unilateral option too.

[dbgtz]

"could simply be expanded"
spoken by someone who's never worked in IT or at a border...

regardless none of that actually addresses what I said
simply put, there will be some disruption to the flow of goods (which is undeniable given the extra admin) and this will negatively impact gdp
I never said it would be chaos, that it wouldn't be managable at some point in the future, but simply that any new border controls will have a negative impact to gdp which you haven't denied and from a consumers point of view, new tarrif charges will be passed on to the consumer which means they will have lower purchasing power

all to allegedly save about £20 of my own money a year, which will mostly go in to replacing the vacuum it leaves or perhaps funding a bunch of trips for MPs so they can go on holiday arrange trade deals

[-:Undertaker:-]

"could simply be expanded"
spoken by someone who's never worked in IT or at a border...

Are you claiming it is impossible to expand our existing customs regime to the EU27? yes/no


regardless none of that actually addresses what I said
simply put, there will be some disruption to the flow of goods (which is undeniable given the extra admin) and this will negatively impact gdp
I never said it would be chaos, that it wouldn't be managable at some point in the future, but simply that any new border controls will have a negative impact to gdp which you haven't denied

If the system is poorly designed and not capable, then yes there could be delays. But every other country around the world has a customs regime as a perfectly normal thing with it's neighbours, and somehow they aren't all in recession. It will make zero difference in the longer term, especially as increasing trade volumes (imports) to Britain are coming from outside of the EU anyway and thus outside of the EU Customs Union.


and from a consumers point of view, new tarrif charges will be passed on to the consumer which means they will have lower purchasing power

That depends if we wish to apply high EU-style tariffs.

Meanwhile non-EU tariffs will be able to be cut drastically, something we can't do now thanks to French farmers - for example.


all to allegedly save about £20 of my own money a year, which will mostly go in to replacing the vacuum it leaves or perhaps funding a bunch of trips for MPs so they can go on holiday arrange trade deals

Oh dear. You really can only view Brexit through the GDP lense, can't you?

For most of us who voted Leave it had nothing to do with GDP.

[dbgtz]

Are you claiming it is impossible to expand our existing customs regime to the EU27? yes/no


I said later on that it isn't, it's just you seem to think it's a simple process when there's probably a lot more to it than you think



If the system is poorly designed and not capable, then yes there could be delays. But every other country around the world has a customs regime as a perfectly normal thing with it's neighbours, and somehow they aren't all in recession. It will make zero difference in the longer term, especially as increasing trade volumes (imports) to Britain are coming from outside of the EU anyway and thus outside of the EU Customs Union.


They're not in recession because they're not about to dump every trade deal they have, what a dumb thing to say.
It's also a perfectly normal thing to seek trade arrangements rather than shit on all of them and our neighbours.

so you agree that this will be economically damaging then



That depends if we wish to apply high EU-style tariffs.

Meanwhile non-EU tariffs will be able to be cut drastically, something we can't do now thanks to French farmers - for example.


so either we pay more for imports, shit on our domestic production and/or lower our standards (which you're probably gagging for)
great




Oh dear. You really can only view Brexit through the GDP lense, can't you?

For most of us who voted Leave it had nothing to do with GDP.

this thread is to do with money, so yes I am going to talk about money

[-:Undertaker:-]

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I said later on that it isn't, it's just you seem to think it's a simple process when there's probably a lot more to it than you think

Isn't that true for everything in life? But we don't shrug our shoulders as a nation and say we cannot be arsed with it. It's the same laziness that has infected the British ruling class since the Suez Crisis - a lack of confidence in ourselves. Prepare and stand up for ourselves, for once.


They're not in recession because they're not about to dump every trade deal they have, what a dumb thing to say.

If anything this surely points out the stupidity of our part in European integration over the last forty years. It was always clear that the end goal was going to be unacceptable to Britain, and as treaty after treaty dragged us further into this project the more public opinion turned against it. We shouldn't have joined in the first place, we certainly should have left in the 1990s with EEC > EU and thank god we are leaving now before it becomes even harder to leave. The fact we will have to replicate FTAs only further adds to the question that will be asked by future generations: why on earth did it take us to long to leave?

On trade deals generally though, the importance is often overstated. Something like 90% of the British economy is internal, with about 50% of that 10% being related to trade with the European Union. That will continue to decrease. So we're talking really small fish here anyway.


It's also a perfectly normal thing to seek trade arrangements rather than shit on all of them and our neighbours.

Isn't that the EU by trying to annex Northern Ireland for a trade deal?


so you agree that this will be economically damaging then

Not at all. But if it were - as I always say - I would gladly pay the price.


so either we pay more for imports, shit on our domestic production and/or lower our standards (which you're probably gagging for)
great

So your solution is to outsource our trade policy to 27 other countries with their own needs and interest?

And that make sense... how? At least independent we can now fine tune it to our own needs.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Still no shift with 76 days to go.

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