May's Deal Vote - Tonight

[-:Undertaker:-]

May's Deal Vote - Tonight

With 73 days to go, the Prime Minister's Deal comes to the House of Commons tonight


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The Prime Minister's EU Withdrawal Treaty is coming to the House of Commons tonight for a vote.

It's expected to lose by historic proportions. There's 73 days remain until Britain leaves the European Union.



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What happens next? Well, in the event of a treaty not being passed, No Deal is the de facto legal position.

That said, many eurosceptics believe that faced with No Deal, the Republic of Ireland will pressure the EU to give last minute concessions as it faces steep tariffs on it's exports, the majority of which are sent into Britain via Northern Ireland. There's a hint of this...

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If the defeat is as big as expected, Labour are expected to try and trigger a General Election immediately with a VONC.

The vote is expected this evening at around 7 o'clock.

Thoughts?

[FlyingJesus]

Such a waste of time and presumably public money. We all know it's going to be voted down, and then Corbyn's going to waste MORE time and money with a vote of no confidence that he's already stated he can't win... It's all so petty and all of them are just looking after their own interests right now. Should just be getting on with it

[-:Undertaker:-]

Looks like this won't be the last we see of this deal.

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So long as the clock is run down...

[-:Undertaker:-]

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A defeat on this size usually means not only the end of a PM, but a government. But these are not normal times.

[FlyingJesus]

Surprised even that many liked her shit deal plan tbh. Aaaaaaand now Red Jez has called for a VONC to waste more of our time and airwaves

[Zak]

I saw it coming but not by that margin lol

[Inseriousity.]

Loses by over 200, staggers on and decides to "listen to colleagues and return to the EU." Hasn't she just spent a month doing exactly that and only got a letter for her troubles?!! Sometimes I feel sorry for her but all she knows how to do is kick the can down the road. It's all her own fault.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Why are we returning to the EU for anything? is the real question. The whole thing is back-to-front.

How it should go is, we tell the EU we're not doing this unacceptable deal and they're not getting a penny of their £39bn they claim to be owed. If and when they're feeling reasonable to discuss a Free Trade Deal, they can give us a call and we'll pick up the phone to consider it.

Then start ringing around the people who actually *want* to trade and be friends with us instead of demanding parts of our country as a price.

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[Zak]

Loses by over 200, staggers on and decides to "listen to colleagues and return to the EU." Hasn't she just spent a month doing exactly that and only got a letter for her troubles?!! Sometimes I feel sorry for her but all she knows how to do is kick the can down the road. It's all her own fault.

I always thought Theresa May would be used as a scapegoat. You're right though, everyone saw it coming.. it's almost as though she was hoping to blackmail Parliament to vote her deal through because it was close to the deadline.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I always thought Theresa May would be used as a scapegoat. You're right though, everyone saw it coming.. it's almost as though she was hoping to blackmail Parliament to vote her deal through because it was close to the deadline.

To be fair to the Prime Minister, she is offering Remoaners a deal favourable to them but they're so in denial about the referendum result that they cannot bring themselves to vote for it. Labour's position is absurd, claiming to want a Customs Union "with a say" which simply doesn't exist and won't exist. There's not a majority for any solution in the Commons, yet No Deal is the default - which is why I said all the way back 2 years ago that I welcomed the A50 mechanism for leaving when many eurosceptics were against it, I said in the end it could favour us and so it has.

In terms of revoking or extending A50, the EU would only accept this if it were to facilitate another referendum or General Election - and only a government has the power to put this forward to the House of Commons. If they tried doing this, it is almost certain that the government would collapse and the Tory Party would formally split apart. No matter how you look at it, all roads seem to lead to paralysis and No Deal outcome.

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Going on from the paralysis point, 70 Labour MPs who lost the first referendum have just called for a second referendum which is now splitting the Labour Party. Blairites who hate Corbyn are angling to split formally from the Labour Party and his refusal to back a second referendum could be the issue that tips them.

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BUT THAT'S NOT ALL. Even among the minority of those who want a second referendum, there are splits. Many won't support a formal split from the Labour and Conservative parties. And they disagree amongst themselves to what the referendum question would be.

Absolute paralysis, like I said lmao.

[Inseriousity.]

People think May is a scapegoat or they feel sorry for her or they think she's a decent person trying to do her best but trapped in a difficult situation. It's true, breaking away from decades of integration was always going to be difficult but she has made massive mistakes along the way so I can't agree with any of those explanations.

She called Article 50 early without any semblance of a plan. I can see the political reality that you wouldn't be able to postpone it forever but the government spent far too long trying to work out what it wanted. I think that is because Theresa May's default position is always to kick the can down the road and save the difficult decisions for another day. Brexit was always going to piss people off but she's spent the past 2 years trying to please everyone. At some point, you have to pick a side. Even now with a 230 loss - the biggest in history - she is still stubbornly saying "I'll listen to colleagues to get a majority" but refusing to budge on anything within her deal. Even if she went with something I totally disagreed with, at least she'll have made a decision but she can't even do that.

What I personally think should happen: Hold a general election where parties set out their Brexit stalls. I think Tories should opt for the "we haven't got a deal but we'll be able to handle No Deal" scenario. Labour can do their "a customs union but not the customs union" thing, Lib Dems/Greens - second referendum etc etc. At least that way, there can be no more "the public didn't know what they were voting for" tosh. It'd be quite interesting to see how the electoral map could change. I am not convinced that the public didn't vote for "No Deal" in the referendum. Yes, it'd have been nice to have a deal but as the whole point was about taking back control and it seemed to resonate with people, I imagine that the vast majority would agree with the "No deal is better than a bad deal" line.

None of that will happen as there are too many party political issues getting in the way, namely that Theresa May is terrible and should never lead a general election again so the Tories will never call one.

What I think will happen: Theresa May is going to "listen to colleagues and go back to the EU" but she's going to refuse to engage with any of the options as she's given herself major leeway to say anything opposite to her plan "goes against the result of the referendum." She will present her old plan dressed up as Plan B to the Commons to vote again. She thinks she'll be able to win this time as the March deadline is getting near and it'll spook some of the moderates but unfortunately there are too many hardline Remainers/Brexiteers for this to ever succeed. What happens from there, I have no clue.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The Government survives the VOC!

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Meanwhile...

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And THIS ABSOLUTELY

End of European integration in Britain = the Blairities go down with the ship.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Countdown: 67 days

The PM reports back to the House of Commons tomorrow as to what next. Here's the HoC split at the moment, roughly.


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In short, it is being reported tonight that she is going to try and get the DUP and Brexiteers onside by going back to the EU concerning the backstop. The EU though as we all know, has stated it will not re-open talks and the backstop is non-negotiable. That said, the EU says a lot of things and then does the complete opposite last minute so who knows. If you look below, this suggests she will return to the Commons for another vote in mid-February.... meaning by that point the clock will have been run down where by if the deal is rejected again, No Deal is a nailed-on certainty.

I was never 100% behind efforts to remove her before Christmas, as I did suspect she could simply run the clock down in the end which is my ideal outcome, bringing us to No Deal - and all the moves thus far suggests this is what is happening.

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