British General Election, 2019

[-:Undertaker:-]

British General Election, 2019

House of Commons votes in favour of a General Election on Thursday 12th December 2019


https://i.pinimg.com/originals/15/d0/01/15d00119ecb7729b037ed2c4edd15bf8.jpg


MPs today voted in favour of holding a General Election on Thursday 12th December 2019. With the House of Commons being deadlocked over Brexit, the Conservatives were supported by the SNP and Liberal Democrats in going for an election as both of those parties look to gain from any election held right now. Her Majesty's Official Opposition reluctantly backed the General Election.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/politics/2019/09/05/leaders_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpyqAwmoo14ISLBandNx16OgN MLkTC1km1ompGktgJL8.jpg?imwidth=450


Apparently it is the first General Election in a century to be held in winter.

Vote in the poll who you're currently intending to vote for.

Feel free to post any updates/polls/news.

[sexpot]

I'm gonna be voting for UKIP

[-:Undertaker:-]

So far over 50 MPs have announced they're not standing for election.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Another poll.

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[Yupt]

It's going to be an impossible prediction to call. There's going to be so much tactical voting against certain parties and depending on how the main few campaign then anything could happen.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Today Nigel Farage announced he was pulling out from all seats that the Conservatives currently hold. This means The Brexit Party will be standing in Labour Leave areas (mainly the north of England, Welsh valleys) to try split the vote and allow the Tories to take the seats. Great news. He should be granted a peerage (as rumours are suggesting) and become The Lord Farage. Long overdue.

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If we look at the latest polls before this news, with many now showing the Tories on 41%, we could expect that to now be around 44%.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

A leadership poll and two national polls. 24 days to go.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

A week to go...

Most national polling has around a 10-point gap between the two main parties.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Sorry I haven't been on here much, currently restricted in terms of Wifi and can only use certain applications.

The polling average of the final polls taken last night is a 10% gap between the two major parties.

There will be an Exit Poll at 10pm tonight. Hopefully I can get to a bar/cafe so I can be on here to post some results/chat!


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/07/Uk2022polling15average.png/800px-Uk2022polling15average.png

[-:Undertaker:-]

Amazing.

Labour projected to get worst result since 1924.

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[buttons]

oof. reminds me of the scottish referendum tbh. everyone was convinced it was going to be a yes but goes to show that being the loudest doesn't mean you're the voice for everyone.

[scottish]

looks like indy ref 2 might actually happen then ;)

[FlyingJesus]

oof. reminds me of the scottish referendum tbh. everyone was convinced it was going to be a yes but goes to show that being the loudest doesn't mean you're the voice for everyone.

Yeah basically people see a load of loudmouths on Facebook Twitter etc and assume that's the majority voice because it's what gets seen/heard the most. Not saying it's RIGHT that people go out and just vote the same way they always have without checking what's going on but every single time social media commentary underestimates the number of people who don't constantly post online about politics and who have very different views.

Says a lot that two of the least popular (or at least most divisive) PMs in history have both beaten Corbyn in what should have been landslides for him and his party. Utterly useless opposition leadership has been the decider of the last few years, not necessarily competent govt leadership

[-:Undertaker:-]

looks like indy ref 2 might actually happen then ;)

No re-running referendums with a Conservative and Unionist government.

I have always said that Brexit makes Scottish independence less likely. I still stand by that and I think the SNP know it deep down.

[Joe]

I'm gutted to be honest. Our poor schools (and the countries children) have been shafted once again. I worry so much for the future of education for this country.

[buttons]

No re-running referendums with a Conservative and Unionist government.

I have always said that Brexit makes Scottish independence less likely. I still stand by that and I think the SNP know it deep down.
I agree, I think this proves that actually the public don't like it when political parties make it their number 1 agenda to go against a vote the country made..

Although I hugely respect that the SNP suspended one of their candidates here in Fife for his anti-semitism remarks. Corbyn failed to do that in his own party and I except Johnson would have too.

Woops, just had a little look and it appears labour did have to suspend some of their party, though that was Scottish Labour

[scottish]

probably, but Sturgeon stated several times she wants another referendum in 2020 and given SNP are expected to take back most of Scotlands seats then that'll probably boost her ego and think that the country at backing her indyref2 wishes

I don't see how Brexit makes it less likely though as majority of Scotland were anti brexit?

Not that I care either way as I didn't vote in any referendum or today :P

[-:Undertaker:-]

@scottish (https://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=53890);

Brexit, once it actually happens within weeks now, makes independence a lot more complicated and a lot less attractive.

It means, for Scotland, "independence" becomes adoption of the Euro, full integration, tariffs with the UK.

[buttons]

As far as I'm aware, SNP need WestMinister to agree to a referendum as it's a constitutional matter. There's a complicated process to go through to do this, hence it was supposed to be a once in a lifetime opportunity that she was given. She can't just hold one every few years until she gets the result she wants and I highly doubt she would get a bill passed as quickly as 2020.

[-:Undertaker:-]

For a taste of what is to come tonight (apparently)...


Blyth Valley, a former mining constituency in Northumberland, has just turned blue.

Blyth Valley - then called Morpeth - has been Labour since 1935. That's 84 years of Labour holding the seat over.

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This is a truly realigning election.

[scottish]

Indyref was always going to be a mess anyway with the euro as only the UK was given the exclusion and not Scotland, didn't that all come out in the first referendum too? (I didn't pay that much attention then so I can't remember exactly what was said)

Yes it would need to go through whatever stages and is probably unlikely to happen by 2020 but just quoting Sturgeons wishes here. I'm very much against Scottish independence so do hope it never happens but can't help but think the boost in SNP seats will boost her ego and want to push more for indyref2, even if it never does happen.

So does this mean 4 years of Boris :|

[-:Undertaker:-]

@scottish (https://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=53890);

Next General Election currently scheduled for May 2024 - unless the FTPA is repealed, which would return the power to the PM.

Wrexham, Burnley, S****horpe, Redcar... all turning blue. Most been Labour for 80+ years. Incredible.


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[-:Undertaker:-]

Corbyn announces intention to resign.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELovNfMWsAE8KeC?format=jpg&name=small


In other news Sedgefield, the former constituency of Tony Blair, has turned blue. It was last Conservative in 1935!

Don Valley, Great Grimsby..... both flipped from red to blue. Huge swings in formerly solid Labour seats.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Jo Swinson is narrowly defeated by the SNP in East Dunbartonshire.

Expect she will now resign as Liberal Democrats leader.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELoz29SXUAAPo7_?format=jpg&name=small

[buttons]

My hometown voted Tory for the second time which is v interesting. They're usually SNP (considering it was Alex Salmond's seat until 2010)

https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/uk-parliamentary-election-2019/

[dbgtz]

absolute sham that boris is still pm given his shite and in some instances illegal performance over the last 20 years

curious to see what his position is over the next few months though I have to say.
some speculate he might go for a softer brexit since he has such a massive majority he doesnt have to care much about the erg
on the flip side, if he goes for something hard it would be interesting to see if theres another rebellion


@scottish (https://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=53890);

Brexit, once it actually happens within weeks now, makes independence a lot more complicated and a lot less attractive.

It means, for Scotland, "independence" becomes adoption of the Euro, full integration, tariffs with the UK.

the former is not strictly true in that list just to point out, but it would be hard to justify not adopting it if they intend to shift from the pound
also the last one on the list you cant actually confirm given theres no terms of any deal yet


As far as I'm aware, SNP need WestMinister to agree to a referendum as it's a constitutional matter. There's a complicated process to go through to do this, hence it was supposed to be a once in a lifetime opportunity that she was given. She can't just hold one every few years until she gets the result she wants and I highly doubt she would get a bill passed as quickly as 2020.

to be fair, they keep getting elected on the platform of independence and arguably one of the key reasons people in scotland voted to say was because of the eu (I have no source for this, pure conjecture) so you could say the push for another one is justified

[-:Undertaker:-]

Last night, one of the Labour MPs with her head screwed on - and who respected that her constituents voted Leave - lost her seat. Caroline Flint lost Don Valley, a Labour seat since 1922. Her speech is worth listening to as the party now works out how to recover from its worst result since 1935.

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My hometown voted Tory for the second time which is v interesting. They're usually SNP (considering it was Alex Salmond's seat until 2010)

https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/uk-parliamentary-election-2019/

I think at the moment, the SNP have such a domination over Scottish politics because they have a united vote. The Unionist vote is still fragmented between the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Eventually, this will change as an alternative to the SNP at Holyrood and Westminster is sought. I'd like to see voting up there return to the actual practicalities of governing (and I think it will) like schools, which the SNP have failed so badly on.

Quebec in Canada experienced all of this back in the 1980s and 1990s, and after two referendum defeats nationalism in Quebec has drastically receded and Quebec has mainly re-integated back into Canadian politics. Hopefully Britain's withdrawal from the EU will be another step in returning Scottish politics back into the mainstream British fold.


absolute sham that boris is still pm given his shite and in some instances illegal performance over the last 20 years

curious to see what his position is over the next few months though I have to say.
some speculate he might go for a softer brexit since he has such a massive majority he doesnt have to care much about the erg
on the flip side, if he goes for something hard it would be interesting to see if theres another rebellion

The government will go for a Canada-style FTA. He has the numbers, and Downing Street now has Dominic Cummings as well as half the Cabinet as ardent Leavers. There's no more staunch Remainers like Sir David Lidlingtons and Gavin Barwells in Number 10. One thing people are overlooking is how the Conservative and Unionist Party has now become completely eurosceptic - I cannot name a single incumbent Tory MP who even advocates the EEA/EFTA now. That's a massive sea change.

Soubry, Grieve, Letwin, Clarke, Sandbach, Wollaston, Allen, Boles and countless others are history. Farage has won.


the former is not strictly true in that list just to point out, but it would be hard to justify not adopting it if they intend to shift from the pound
also the last one on the list you cant actually confirm given theres no terms of any deal yet

The opt outs that exist for Britain, Denmark(?) and Sweden(?) on the Euro exist because they are existing members and were able to bargain opt outs before signing the newer treaties. A member state applying to join the European Union has no legal choice: other than not joining the EU.

Britain is leaving the EU's Customs Union, meaning an independent Scotland would be in a different customs territory. All of the arguments the SNP made about leaving the EU, can be applied to Scotland leaving the UK - but tenfold. They won't have a leg to stand on post- Brexit and they know it.


to be fair, they keep getting elected on the platform of independence and arguably one of the key reasons people in scotland voted to say was because of the eu (I have no source for this, pure conjecture) so you could say the push for another one is justified

The SNP and Nicola Sturgeon would argue for a third, fourth and fifth referendum if the weather changed.

There's also been no significant shift towards independence generally in the polls.

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[buttons]

to be fair, they keep getting elected on the platform of independence and arguably one of the key reasons people in scotland voted to say was because of the eu (I have no source for this, pure conjecture) so you could say the push for another one is justified
2019 UK Election: 68.1% of Scottish voters voted. 45% of those were for SNP meaning 55% for different parties.
2016 Scottish Election: 55.6% voter turnout. 46.5% voted for SNP and 0.6% voted pro-independence Greens. 52.9% voted for parties against independence.
2014 Referendum: 55% voted against independence with 45% voting for. 84.6% turnout.

My opinion there then is that a vote for SNP is not necessarily a vote for independence. Whilst they get elected into parliament, voter turn out is relatively low and doesn't paint as big a picture as 55% voting against independence in a 84.6% turnout. What I find hilarious is the amount of SNP voters quoting Margaret Thatcher's "a vote for SNP is a vote for independence" to argue for a referendum when they were all joking and laughing when she died. They also aren't taking into consideration the amount of no voters and turnout rates for the elections SNP has been elected into. SNP votes this election could arguably just be votes against either Labour or Conservative and we shouldn't assume it's a growing trend for independence. I can say 100% the attitude and actions of Sturgeon after the referendum and during this election has turned me completely against Scottish Independence and my vote this time round will be different to last time round. Obviously not just because of Sturgeon but the whole way Brexit has been dealt with by different parties and their leaders turns me right off the idea of separation but I understand how it has also led to more pro-independence. I just think there's so much hypocrisy for people to be anti-brexit but Ok for the Scots to be pro-separation just because England didn't get the vote they wanted. It feels like egos more than politics at this point.


It would be interesting to see if voter intention has changed and why. But I don't think Sturgeon and SNP voters should get cocky too quickly.



I think at the moment, the SNP have such a domination over Scottish politics because they have a united vote. The Unionist vote is still fragmented between the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Eventually, this will change as an alternative to the SNP at Holyrood and Westminster is sought. I'd like to see voting up there return to the actual practicalities of governing (and I think it will) like schools, which the SNP have failed so badly on.
In Banff & Buchan I think the problem is the SNP candidates believe they will get votes based solely on being SNP. The conservative member there is actually really pro-active and liked so that explains why they vote him. Of course there are still plenty SNP voters who are annoyed a tory is in despite him actually improving their area compared to the SNP candidate lol.


Britain is leaving the EU's Customs Union, meaning an independent Scotland would be in a different customs territory. All of the arguments the SNP made about leaving the EU, can be applied to Scotland leaving the UK - but tenfold. They won't have a leg to stand on post- Brexit and they know it.
This is what I feel exactly. It feels to me like SNP want the EU to take over the job of WestMinister in terms of allowing us to keep our free education and free prescriptions etc at the expense of another country or in this case countries. Working in the job I do (based in an NHS hospital but with a housing and homelessness background) and seeing how much better we have it than the rest of the UK, I feel like we're completely shooting ourselves in the foot by breaking away from that.

[-:Undertaker:-]

This is what I feel exactly. It feels to me like SNP want the EU to take over the job of WestMinister

Indeed, and the logic doesn't add up.

Scotland as a part of Britain has devolution and those powers have been expanded. Scotland as part of the EU would mean signing up to "ever closer union" which would mean a continual transfer of powers from Edinburgh to Brussels. "Ever closer union" is the polar opposite of independence.

The Acts of Union (1707) also retained Scotland's own legal system. EU membership means increasing civil law taking precedence over Scots Law.

[Inseriousity.]

What a stunning victory for the Conservatives. For over 3 years, we've just repeated the Brexit referendum debate (in or out?) over and over with nothing new being added. Finally glad we'll be able to get that part sorted and move onto what the next debate should have been on 24 June 2016 - what sort of Brexit do we want? Read somewhere that People's Vote are rebranding themselves to do precisely that and most likely push for the softest Brexit possible.

As for Scottish independence, I don't think there'll be another referendum any time soon for the simple reason that Boris can simply say 'no, you've had one, it was a once in a generation vote, goodbye.' Naturally, the SNP leadership will huff and they'll puff but they won't be able to do much else legally. Personally, I got the impression that this was precisely what they were hoping for. They knew that they'd gain seats (not necessarily people voting for independence. I agree it was most likely an anti-Tory vote) so they could argue they had the mandate but they also knew that Boris would say no. Privately they're thrilled because they're unlikely to win a second referendum any time soon and they can use this rejection to further boost their cause and say how Westminster is blocking their democratic right. Fits perfectly into the narrative they need to sell to the Scots to get them to vote for independence if a second one does ever happen.

[dbgtz]

The government will go for a Canada-style FTA. He has the numbers, and Downing Street now has Dominic Cummings as well as half the Cabinet as ardent Leavers. There's no more staunch Remainers like Sir David Lidlingtons and Gavin Barwells in Number 10. One thing people are overlooking is how the Conservative and Unionist Party has now become completely eurosceptic - I cannot name a single incumbent Tory MP who even advocates the EEA/EFTA now. That's a massive sea change.

Soubry, Grieve, Letwin, Clarke, Sandbach, Wollaston, Allen, Boles and countless others are history. Farage has won.

purely speculation that's what they will go for
remember boris is the man who has literally been fired from jobs for lying - also the cabinet is due a reshuffle so you have no idea who is going to be there


The opt outs that exist for Britain, Denmark(?) and Sweden(?) on the Euro exist because they are existing members and were able to bargain opt outs before signing the newer treaties. A member state applying to join the European Union has no legal choice: other than not joining the EU.

Britain is leaving the EU's Customs Union, meaning an independent Scotland would be in a different customs territory. All of the arguments the SNP made about leaving the EU, can be applied to Scotland leaving the UK - but tenfold. They won't have a leg to stand on post- Brexit and they know it.

The UK and Denmark have an opt out, but there are 7 other countries who do not and have yet to join the Euro. Sweden does not have an opt out as you just stated, but has yet to join.

I'd like to know examples of arguments the SNP have made that would apply to Scotland leaving the UK and also I'd like to know why none of the supposed advantages of Scotland leaving the EU would apply too.

Arguably the sooner independence happens once we've formally left, the easier it would be from a bureaucratic point of view since we'd have lost most/all the EU trade deals so arguably it would be the least impactful time compared to 2014 where they would have their own transition period where they could have lost all the EU trade deals (obviously no idea how it would have been handled, but worst outcome would be that they were out of the UK and the EU for a period). It has the potential to be a much easier sell now, somewhat depending on how shite the UK leaving the EU goes.


The SNP and Nicola Sturgeon would argue for a third, fourth and fifth referendum if the weather changed.

There's also been no significant shift towards independence generally in the polls.

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I don't disagree with any of this, but the narrative of the recent Conservative majority is that the people have "voted to get Brexit done" (despite the Conservatives still not actually having a majority of the votes). If you choose to accept that narrative, then it's hard to argue with the narrative that the SNP majority in Scotland is the desire for independence.

Also if you have such faith in the polls why do you not consider the shift to remain in the EU


2019 UK Election: 68.1% of Scottish voters voted. 45% of those were for SNP meaning 55% for different parties.
2016 Scottish Election: 55.6% voter turnout. 46.5% voted for SNP and 0.6% voted pro-independence Greens. 52.9% voted for parties against independence.
2014 Referendum: 55% voted against independence with 45% voting for. 84.6% turnout.

My opinion there then is that a vote for SNP is not necessarily a vote for independence. Whilst they get elected into parliament, voter turn out is relatively low and doesn't paint as big a picture as 55% voting against independence in a 84.6% turnout. What I find hilarious is the amount of SNP voters quoting Margaret Thatcher's "a vote for SNP is a vote for independence" to argue for a referendum when they were all joking and laughing when she died. They also aren't taking into consideration the amount of no voters and turnout rates for the elections SNP has been elected into. SNP votes this election could arguably just be votes against either Labour or Conservative and we shouldn't assume it's a growing trend for independence. I can say 100% the attitude and actions of Sturgeon after the referendum and during this election has turned me completely against Scottish Independence and my vote this time round will be different to last time round. Obviously not just because of Sturgeon but the whole way Brexit has been dealt with by different parties and their leaders turns me right off the idea of separation but I understand how it has also led to more pro-independence. I just think there's so much hypocrisy for people to be anti-brexit but Ok for the Scots to be pro-separation just because England didn't get the vote they wanted. It feels like egos more than politics at this point.


It would be interesting to see if voter intention has changed and why. But I don't think Sturgeon and SNP voters should get cocky too quickly.

To be clear, I don't believe that the UK election is any indicator of the SNP having a mandate for independence in the same way I don't believe the Conservative majority provides any mandate for their Brexit, but as said to Undertaker the entire narrative now is that they do have a mandate on 43.6% of the UK vote, but are arguing the SNP don't have a mandate on 45% of the Scottish vote. FPTP really isn't suitable for any of this.

[-:Undertaker:-]

You don't think the Conservatives winning a landslide against Labour is a mandate for Brexit?

Continual moving of the goalposts. We literally had a vote on the precise question of Brexit, and people voted Leave.


- European Elections 2014 = UKIP win advocating we leave the EU.
- General Election 2015 = Conservatives win promising a renegotiation of membership and referendum.
- EU Referendum 2016 = Leave campaign wins "once in a generation vote" by 52%.
- General Election 2017 = Conservatives win most seats promising withdrawal, Labour also promise withdrawal.
- European Elections 2019 = The Brexit Party win advocating we leave the EU.
- General Election 2019 = Conservatives win a landslide promising imminent withdrawal.


It's like, no matter how many times we vote under PR, FPTP and referenda you just will not accept it.

It's over. Dead and buried. PLEASE just accept it. @dbgtz (https://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=28789);

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FPTP really isn't suitable for any of this.

That's why Scotland and Britain as a whole had two referendums on these constitutional topics in 2014 and 2016.

Scotland voted to stay part of Britain, and Britain voted to leave the EU. And that is what is now happening in both cases. #democracy

[dbgtz]

You don't think the Conservatives winning a landslide against Labour is a mandate for Brexit?

Continual moving of the goalposts. We literally had a vote on the precise question of Brexit, and people voted Leave.


- European Elections 2014 = UKIP win advocating we leave the EU.
- General Election 2015 = Conservatives win promising a renegotiation of membership and referendum.
- EU Referendum 2016 = Leave campaign wins "once in a generation vote" by 52%.
- General Election 2017 = Conservatives win most seats promising withdrawal, Labour also promise withdrawal.
- European Elections 2019 = The Brexit Party win advocating we leave the EU.
- General Election 2019 = Conservatives win a landslide promising imminent withdrawal.


It's like, no matter how many times we vote under PR, FPTP and referenda you just will not accept it.

It's over. Dead and buried. PLEASE just accept it. @dbgtz (https://www.habboxforum.com/member.php?u=28789);

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how am I continuinally moving the goal posts when I've consistently been against FPTP
the fact is in all except the EU ref none of the "winners" had a majority, and I find it strange you describe UKIP and the BXP as winning when they did not have a majority of seats let alone votes

ignoring all of that, the argument I initially made is the same, how can you really ignore the SNPs claims when they keep "winning" EU, Scottish and UK elections


That's why Scotland and Britain as a whole had two referendums on these constitutional topics in 2014 and 2016.

Scotland voted to stay part of Britain, and Britain voted to leave the EU. And that is what is now happening in both cases. #democracy

nobody voted for a border in the Irish sea though lol

[-:Undertaker:-]

ignoring all of that, the argument I initially made is the same, how can you really ignore the SNPs claims when they keep "winning" EU, Scottish and UK elections

It really isn't hard.

The SNP wanted a "once in a generation" referendum on independence. They even got to choose how the question was framed. They lost.

[-:Undertaker:-]

It gets worse for Labour.

Lady Nugee - who calls herself Emily Thornberry - was, if you remember, the one who during the 2016 referendum campaign was campaigning on a council estate and took a photograph and sneered at someone flying the St George's flag from their house. In other words, sneering at the patriotic working class THE PEOPLE WHO LABOUR ARE SUPPOSED TO REPRESENT.

Anyway, today former Labour MP Caroline Flint has spilt the beans and confirmed that Lady Nugee branded Leave voters in northern seats as 'thick'.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kq9KyfqQlKc&feature=emb_title

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