'No extension to the transition period' formally agreed by Britain and the EU

[-:Undertaker:-]

'No extension to the transition period' agreed by Britain and the EU

Britain will be leaving the Single Market and Customs Union on 31st December 2020 when transition ends

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Today was the last joint committee meeting prior to the end-of-month deadline for an extension to the UK’s transition period out of the EU. The Withdrawal Agreement committed both sides to “adopt a single position” on whether or not to extend the transition period. Today that decision has been reached and acknowledged by the EU. EU Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has now said “I take this as a definite conclusion of this discussion”…

By the next time Michael Gove meets with the EU Commission the fact of no extension will have been set in stone by its July 1 deadline. On 1 January 2021, the UK is fully taking back control. It’s Canada or Australia…

Excellent news.

Some had argued it ought to be because of the Coronavirus impact, however as pointed out now is actually more ideal as many supply chains have already collapsed/will have to be changed with the economic impact of Coronavirus on businesses everywhere.

So as we enter 2021, Britain will either be like Canada (a loose FTA with EU) or Australia (no FTA with the EU).

Thoughts?

[Triz]

Britain will be leaving the Single Market and Customs Union

Hey Dan,

I'm not very politically inclined, what does this actually mean in layman terms?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Hey Dan,

I'm not very politically inclined, what does this actually mean in layman terms?

Sure.

The EU Single Market is one market whereby member state countries follow the same (EU) laws, rules and regulations on goods and services. So 28 individual markets become 1 market. Like America is one market, or Canada is one market. For example, all across the EU if you are manufacturing a kettle you must follow the same set of regulations to comply with EU law, and you can then sell it across all 28 countries. In the same way in Australia when you make a kettle, you must follow Australian market regulations and then can sell it all across Australia.

The EU Customs Union is one customs area whereby countries are under EU tariffs (taxes), so all internal tariffs between EU countries are abolished and there's one external tariff for every country trading outside of the EU. For example, there is no EU tariff on any pork being traded between France and Germany but there might be a tariff (tax) of 20% on Australian pork coming into the EU. At the same time, there might be a 20% tariff by Australia on any pork coming from the EU.

By leaving these areas, Britain will have its own independent domestic market (British rules/laws/regulations) governing British manufacturing, and will be able to apply and disapply its own tariffs (taxes) on goods coming in from anywhere abroad.

[Triz]

So if someone wanted to sell a kettle within the EU, they'd have to abide by EU standards/regulations as well as our own now, instead of just the EU?

[-:Undertaker:-]

So if someone wanted to sell a kettle within the EU, they'd have to abide by EU standards/regulations as well as our own now, instead of just the EU?

If they were selling abroad, they'd have to meet EU standards - the same way we've always had to meet American, Canadian, New Zealand, Australian standards if selling there. Products coming from the EU will have to meet British standards. There's grey area though - sometimes countries have "mutual recognition" whereby we allow in goods that don't conform 100% to our standards, for example a different (non-UK) plug socket may be allowed, but that their standards are high enough that we can trust the safety of the product. This is usually done between first world countries as we're obviously more trusting of American or German standards than those of Kenya and India.

But for domestic production and sales (which is what the vast majority of the British economy is, something like 90% of the economy) we'd only have to meet British standards which we'll be fully in control of - so if consumers or producers have an issue with a rule or indeed want a rule, our government will be democratically accountable to us (the whole point of Brexit) in enforcing or abolishing rules and standards.

[Triz]

Ah I gotcha, seems like it's going to be a lot better for us then, especially if, as you say; domestic productions and sales accounts for 90% of the British economy, plus I assume there was some sort of yearly 'fee' for being in the EU in the first place which we'll be saving on? Makes sense that we'd trust other 1st world countries, I think that's the same logic put into drivers licenses, they're generally accepted in all 1st world countries, but if you passed elsewhere, then they're not accepted due to the standards of driving tests, or the fact that most of their government departments are corrupt, and often accept cash payment in exchange for licenses etc..

Like anything though, there are often down sides... Do you know what the cons are for being in a single market?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Ah I gotcha, seems like it's going to be a lot better for us then, especially if, as you say; domestic productions and sales accounts for 90% of the British economy, plus I assume there was some sort of yearly 'fee' for being in the EU in the first place which we'll be saving on? Makes sense that we'd trust other 1st world countries, I think that's the same logic put into drivers licenses, they're generally accepted in all 1st world countries, but if you passed elsewhere, then they're not accepted due to the standards of driving tests, or the fact that most of their government departments are corrupt, and often accept cash payment in exchange for licenses etc..

Like anything though, there are often down sides... Do you know what the cons are for being in a single market?

Well it all depends on what your values and priorities are really. I'll try and imagine three different scenarios.

The first scenario I am a British farmer selling mainly to the domestic market. If a British government is elected with a pro-farming agenda, I will benefit as 100% of the rules and regulations that govern how I go about my business will be more tailored for my business than say rules coming from Europe which have been influenced by rival French farmers and agricultural lobbyists. So a benefit could be that the British government relaxes rules around slaughterhouses, meaning my meat can be processed locally rather than me having to cart it halfway across the country and back for slaughter. In addition, the government may agree an FTA with Australia which lowers or removes tariffs on exporting meat products to Australia. These would all be beneficial for me. On the other hand, if a government is elected with an agenda that hurts farming, I could be at risk - but at least I can vote to remove it from power every 5 years.

The second scenario I am a British company that mainly exports to continental Europe (but also sells some in Britain) producing kettles. In this scenario, I am more likely to want to remain under EU regulations as then I can make all of my kettles the same which saves me time varying components for each market. With Britain out of the EU, I could now face the possibility of tariffs on exporting to the EU if the EU decides to impose them whereas when in the EU I obviously didn't face these tariffs. This will depend on the governments of the EU and their agendas, which I used to have a 1 in 28 (3.5%) say in but no longer do as we're not a member of the EU.

The third scenario I am a British company (which my friend works for) that exports paint and oil products around the world, both to Europe and elsewhere. Britain's departure from the EU could hurt or benefit me, depending on variables such as which governments are elected and the quality of the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) the government signs with other countries. On the whole, assuming the likely outcome that Britain does sign flexible FTAs with major trading partners, Brexit in the longer term will likely benefit me as more markets will be opened up to my company than would have done so under EU FTAs which have to take into account 28 countries needs and desires rather than just 1. In the short term, I will likely face some disruption as I may face tariffs where I did not previously concerning my trade with Europe. But again, this all varies depending on what FTAs are signed and what regulations elected British governments introduce or abolish.

[dbgtz]

just going to point out some flaws and omissions with what undertaker has said

firstly, he doesn't seem to mentioning the single market also includes people, i.e. your inherent right to live and work in anywhere Europe is gone

the leaving of the eu also extends beyond the single market and customs union. no EHIC, ERASMUS (potentially), and a bunch of behind the scenes stuff that you wouldnt really notice day-to-day (but is important as we will likely to have to replicate these and they will likely cost us as a country more due to the lack of pooled resources)

he compares us to becoming australia or canada, but theres many issues with these comparisons:
neither have issues with "disputed" territory (northern ireland, gibraltar, cyprus bases)
they are both hundreds of miles away in comparison
they do not have land borders or land connections, we have the land border with ireland and channel tunnel connection with europe
neither currently export nearly half of their total exports of goods to the eu, we do (https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-goods-exports-gdp/?utm_source=content_page&utm_medium=related_content)
neither has a city reliant on the ability to trade euros, we do https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-28/a-brutal-brexit-is-lose-lose-for-europe-and-city-of-london)
we import a significant chunk of energy from eu countries - this is important as this isnt something you can import long distance

whilst there was money paid for "access to the single market" and we were, on paper, a net contributer (i.e. put more money in than we got back), it's likely that leaving the EU will cost more money in the long term due to set up cost, economic growth cost, the potential loss of decent access to the market, and the likely increased cost of have to replicate some instutions we lost due to leaving (some say the preparations have already cost more than we have paid in: https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T) - it also means more having to be spent on the borders to perform checks on the goods which we didnt have to do to the same degree as part of the eu

on a personal opinion, the way undertaker has presented this makes it sound like a bright future where all the rules are ours. the reality is we are small compared to these massive trading blocks and likely will be sold down the river to accommodate these. you can see this already where the government previously promised to protect food standards, but have now reneged on it. the democratic argument is a farce.

just to end this, im going to point out some statements which i want to make a small point on:
1. i just want to say asking for information of how the eu works from someone obviously biased (see the Guido source and how its worded) against it isnt the best idea if you arent looking this up elsewhere as well
2. he makes the statement "however as pointed out now is actually more ideal as many supply chains have already collapsed" - pointed out when? how is it more ideal? questions worth asking and finding out about before accepting them as truth
3. "for example a different (non-UK) plug socket may be allowed" - as a business it is a requirement to sell electrics with a british plug or suitable conversion that can only be removed with a tool - see point 6 here: https://www.hants.gov.uk/business/tradingstandards/businessadvice/safety/importingelectricalgoods Not directly related to the eu but hopefully makes you question some of the other things which have been said in this thread
3.5 he also uses germany as an example in this, but germany is in the eu so bit of a weird choice there
4.
But for domestic production and sales (which is what the vast majority of the British economy is, something like 90% of the economy) - again literally no source for this and this whole statement kind of ignores how reliant we are on the initial imports of goods
5. "So a benefit could be that the British government relaxes rules around slaughterhouses, meaning my meat can be processed locally rather than me having to cart it halfway across the country" - firstly he has no evidence to suggest any of this actually happens, but describes it as being a potential benefit of leaving the EU. suppose it is a rule though, there could easily be a good reason such a rule exists.


anyway i will leave this mess of a post there as its getting late

[-:Undertaker:-]

just going to point out some flaws and omissions with what undertaker has said

firstly, he doesn't seem to mentioning the single market also includes people, i.e. your inherent right to live and work in anywhere Europe is gone

We're not discussing Freedom of Movement, this is about the economics only.

The *vast* majority people do not wish to go and live and work in Europe. I actually have done so for two years.


the leaving of the eu also extends beyond the single market and customs union. no EHIC, ERASMUS (potentially), and a bunch of behind the scenes stuff that you wouldnt really notice day-to-day (but is important as we will likely to have to replicate these and they will likely cost us as a country more due to the lack of pooled resources)

That again is not what we're discussing here.

ERASMUS and EURATOM etc aren't relevant to explaining the Single Market and Customs Union.


he compares us to becoming australia or canada, but theres many issues with these comparisons:
neither have issues with "disputed" territory (northern ireland, gibraltar, cyprus bases)

Northern Ireland isn't a disputed territory as the Republic of Ireland recognises British sovereignty, and both the Cypriot bases and Gibraltar are governed by treaties made under international law. I have visited Gibraltar three times, and since I last went the only difference post-Brexit is that the Commonwealth flag has replaced the EU flag on the British side of the land border while thousands of Spanish continue to cross the border everyday to work in Gibraltar.


they are both hundreds of miles away in comparison

I don't understand what difference this makes. India is thousands of miles away from us, yet has a very similar military structure to our own. Australia is on the other side of the planet, yet shares the same Head of State (the Queen) as us. Canada is at the roof of the world, yet has the same system of government as us. New Zealand is at the bottom of the world alone, yet trades with us tens of thousands of miles away.

Distance doesn't make something different to you. We're more similar to Australia/Canada/New Zealand than we are to Poland or Lithuania.


they do not have land borders or land connections, we have the land border with ireland and channel tunnel connection with europe


Canada has two enormous land borders with America, in total stretching 5,524 miles across.

It (Canada) also has maritime borders with Denmark and France.

The border between Britain and Ireland is 310 miles across.


neither currently export nearly half of their total exports of goods to the eu, we do (https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-goods-exports-gdp/?utm_source=content_page&utm_medium=related_content)

A figure that is falling every year as trade with the rest of the planet outpaces trade with Europe.

That process will accelerate once Britain is allowed to trade freely (post-Dec 31st) with whoever she wants to.


neither has a city reliant on the ability to trade euros, we do https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-28/a-brutal-brexit-is-lose-lose-for-europe-and-city-of-london)

Trade in the City of London in the Chinese currency has reached a record high: https://news.cityoflondon.gov.uk/uk-rmb-trading-hits-record-levels/

China is on the other side of the world, yet still trades at the City of London. I thought you said distance matters? London is successful not because it is a few hundred miles away from Europe, but because British taxes and regulations are competitive and our workers good at what they do.


we import a significant chunk of energy from eu countries - this is important as this isnt something you can import long distance


I would agree this is a problem, which is why it is good we're leaving the Single Market and EU energy market and won't be dependent on other countries going into the future for our energy. The EU is co-ordinating integration of energy markets, which I assume you supported.

You can't glue us to stupid EU policies and then turn around and say "But HA! Look how dependent on them we are!"


whilst there was money paid for "access to the single market" and we were, on paper, a net contributer (i.e. put more money in than we got back), it's likely that leaving the EU will cost more money in the long term due to set up cost, economic growth cost, the potential loss of decent access to the market, and the likely increased cost of have to replicate some instutions we lost due to leaving (some say the preparations have already cost more than we have paid in: https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T) - it also means more having to be spent on the borders to perform checks on the goods which we didnt have to do to the same degree as part of the eu

We paid £10bn+ every year into the EU for our membership.

Are you claiming it will cost us, an island, £10bn+ a year to carry our Customs checks which we already carry out every hour on non-EU goods?


on a personal opinion, the way undertaker has presented this makes it sound like a bright future where all the rules are ours. the reality is we are small compared to these massive trading blocks and likely will be sold down the river to accommodate these. you can see this already where the government previously promised to protect food standards, but have now reneged on it. the democratic argument is a farce.

Most countries in world are not part of Single Markets and Customs Unions.

Britain is the 5th largest economy in the world out of nearly 200 countries, in what way are we "small"?


just to end this, im going to point out some statements which i want to make a small point on:
1. i just want to say asking for information of how the eu works from someone obviously biased (see the Guido source and how its worded) against it isnt the best idea if you arent looking this up elsewhere as well

Feel free to explain what part of it is wrong.


2. he makes the statement "however as pointed out now is actually more ideal as many supply chains have already collapsed" - pointed out when? how is it more ideal? questions worth asking and finding out about before accepting them as truth

If supply chains have collapsed (which they have due to Coronavirus) it means less hassle for businesses in changing supply chains post-31st Dec.

What have you got to say to refute this simple logic?


3. "for example a different (non-UK) plug socket may be allowed" - as a business it is a requirement to sell electrics with a british plug or suitable conversion that can only be removed with a tool - see point 6 here: https://www.hants.gov.uk/business/tradingstandards/businessadvice/safety/importingelectricalgoods Not directly related to the eu but hopefully makes you question some of the other things which have been said in this thread
3.5 he also uses germany as an example in this, but germany is in the eu so bit of a weird choice there

My examples were just hypotheticals to show how we'll have the freedom to diverge going into the future.

As far as I know though, it is possible to import goods via buying online with non-UK plugs - because I have done so myself.


4.
But for domestic production and sales (which is what the vast majority of the British economy is, something like 90% of the economy) - again literally no source for this and this whole statement kind of ignores how reliant we are on the initial imports of goods

You have trade the wrong way around. We are the customer buying from them, they are reliant on *us* in the same way Saudi Arabia is heavily reliant on other countries when it comes to buying Saudi oil. If you go into a shop to buy something, who is the reliant partner? The shop needs your money more than you need their product at any cost. The customer is King, as the old adage goes.


5. "So a benefit could be that the British government relaxes rules around slaughterhouses, meaning my meat can be processed locally rather than me having to cart it halfway across the country" - firstly he has no evidence to suggest any of this actually happens, but describes it as being a potential benefit of leaving the EU. suppose it is a rule though, there could easily be a good reason such a rule exists.

Whether it is a good rule or not isn't the point, the point is that it should be up to the elected British government to decide such things.

[Seatherny]

We're not discussing Freedom of Movement, this is about the economics only.

The *vast* majority people do not wish to go and live and work in Europe. I actually have done so for two years.



That again is not what we're discussing here.

ERASMUS and EURATOM etc aren't relevant to explaining the Single Market and Customs Union.



Northern Ireland isn't a disputed territory as the Republic of Ireland recognises British sovereignty, and both the Cypriot bases and Gibraltar are governed by treaties made under international law. I have visited Gibraltar three times, and since I last went the only difference post-Brexit is that the Commonwealth flag has replaced the EU flag on the British side of the land border while thousands of Spanish continue to cross the border everyday to work in Gibraltar.



I don't understand what difference this makes. India is thousands of miles away from us, yet has a very similar military structure to our own. Australia is on the other side of the planet, yet shares the same Head of State (the Queen) as us. Canada is at the roof of the world, yet has the same system of government as us. New Zealand is at the bottom of the world alone, yet trades with us tens of thousands of miles away.

Distance doesn't make something different to you. We're more similar to Australia/Canada/New Zealand than we are to Poland or Lithuania.



Canada has two enormous land borders with America, in total stretching 5,524 miles across.

It (Canada) also has maritime borders with Denmark and France.

The border between Britain and Ireland is 310 miles across.



A figure that is falling every year as trade with the rest of the planet outpaces trade with Europe.

That process will accelerate once Britain is allowed to trade freely (post-Dec 31st) with whoever she wants to.



Trade in the City of London in the Chinese currency has reached a record high: https://news.cityoflondon.gov.uk/uk-rmb-trading-hits-record-levels/

China is on the other side of the world, yet still trades at the City of London. I thought you said distance matters? London is successful not because it is a few hundred miles away from Europe, but because British taxes and regulations are competitive and our workers good at what they do.



I would agree this is a problem, which is why it is good we're leaving the Single Market and EU energy market and won't be dependent on other countries going into the future for our energy. The EU is co-ordinating integration of energy markets, which I assume you supported.

You can't glue us to stupid EU policies and then turn around and say "But HA! Look how dependent on them we are!"



We paid £10bn+ every year into the EU for our membership.

Are you claiming it will cost us, an island, £10bn+ a year to carry our Customs checks which we already carry out every hour on non-EU goods?



Most countries in world are not part of Single Markets and Customs Unions.

Britain is the 5th largest economy in the world out of nearly 200 countries, in what way are we "small"?



Feel free to explain what part of it is wrong.



If supply chains have collapsed (which they have due to Coronavirus) it means less hassle for businesses in changing supply chains post-31st Dec.

What have you got to say to refute this simple logic?



My examples were just hypotheticals to show how we'll have the freedom to diverge going into the future.

As far as I know though, it is possible to import goods via buying online with non-UK plugs - because I have done so myself.



You have trade the wrong way around. We are the customer buying from them, they are reliant on *us* in the same way Saudi Arabia is heavily reliant on other countries when it comes to buying Saudi oil. If you go into a shop to buy something, who is the reliant partner? The shop needs your money more than you need their product at any cost. The customer is King, as the old adage goes.



Whether it is a good rule or not isn't the point, the point is that it should be up to the elected British government to decide such things.




One of the major reasons we are the 5th largest economy is due to being part of the EU. Once we are completely out of the EU, I assure you that we will continue to slip down that list of the largest economies.

The fact is, a large portion of the British public who voted to leave were uneducated or mislead. They believed that by leaving, from the very next day the UK will be like paradise... heck this is how Boris, Cummings and those loonies made it sound like. And the unemployed or lazy or uneducated Brits believed these lies and voted. Now they realise the truth but it is too late.

Lesson: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND DO NOT JUST TRUST WHAT OTHERS SAY AS IT WILL ALMOST ALWAYS BE BIASED.

Now that we have left the EU, I just want us to be out, either with or without a deal by end of this year. This way we can actually end this uncertainty.

EU is and was in no means perfect. But it had a significant amount of benefits which we will no longer be a part of.

[-:Undertaker:-]

One of the major reasons we are the 5th largest economy is due to being part of the EU. Once we are completely out of the EU, I assure you that we will continue to slip down that list of the largest economies.

Britain has been in the top 5 economies of the world since around the 1600s/1700s.

We joined the EU in 1973.


The fact is, a large portion of the British public who voted to leave were uneducated or mislead. They believed that by leaving, from the very next day the UK will be like paradise... heck this is how Boris, Cummings and those loonies made it sound like. And the unemployed or lazy or uneducated Brits believed these lies and voted. Now they realise the truth but it is too late.

"The public are stupid because my side of the argument was so unconvincing"


Lesson: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND DO NOT JUST TRUST WHAT OTHERS SAY AS IT WILL ALMOST ALWAYS BE BIASED.

Now that we have left the EU, I just want us to be out, either with or without a deal by end of this year. This way we can actually end this uncertainty.

EU is and was in no means perfect. But it had a significant amount of benefits which we will no longer be a part of.

Can I ask you when the economic collapse will occur from us leaving the EU, as your side predicted? First you said it would collapse with a Leave vote, then you said it would do so when we actually left, now you're side are saying after the transition. The Doomsday date seems to be continuously moving forward so I am curious as to when will we actually see a measurable recession that we can say is down to Britain not being in the EU?

[dbgtz]

i had no intention of replying to you undertaker as i simply wanted to make sectional aware of the flaws in your argument and to look things up alongside what you said, but i will reply to some.


We're not discussing Freedom of Movement, this is about the economics only.

The EU aims to enable EU citizens to study, live, shop, work and retire in any EU country and enjoy products from all over Europe. To do this, it ensures free movement of goods, services, capital and persons in a single EU internal market.
https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/single-market_en


Northern Ireland isn't a disputed territory as the Republic of Ireland recognises British sovereignty, and both the Cypriot bases and Gibraltar are governed by treaties made under international law. I have visited Gibraltar three times, and since I last went the only difference post-Brexit is that the Commonwealth flag has replaced the EU flag on the British side of the land border while thousands of Spanish continue to cross the border everyday to work in Gibraltar.

hence the quotations marks, "disputed"


I don't understand what difference this makes. India is thousands of miles away from us, yet has a very similar military structure to our own. Australia is on the other side of the planet, yet shares the same Head of State (the Queen) as us. Canada is at the roof of the world, yet has the same system of government as us. New Zealand is at the bottom of the world alone, yet trades with us tens of thousands of miles away.

Distance doesn't make something different to you. We're more similar to Australia/Canada/New Zealand than we are to Poland or Lithuania.

if geography doesnt matter then why did one of your hypotheticals critique the distance of moving produce



Canada has two enormous land borders with America, in total stretching 5,524 miles across.

It (Canada) also has maritime borders with Denmark and France.

The border between Britain and Ireland is 310 miles across.


i guess it wasnt obvious but clearly i meant land borders with the eu



Trade in the City of London in the Chinese currency has reached a record high: https://news.cityoflondon.gov.uk/uk-rmb-trading-hits-record-levels/

China is on the other side of the world, yet still trades at the City of London. I thought you said distance matters? London is successful not because it is a few hundred miles away from Europe, but because British taxes and regulations are competitive and our workers good at what they do.


this has nothing to do with what i said - we do have a greater reliance on clearing euros than canada and australia



I would agree this is a problem, which is why it is good we're leaving the Single Market and EU energy market and won't be dependent on other countries going into the future for our energy. The EU is co-ordinating integration of energy markets, which I assume you supported.

You can't glue us to stupid EU policies and then turn around and say "But HA! Look how dependent on them we are!"


where do you plan on making up the slack if we no longer had access to energy from eu countries? eu policy hasnt made us reliant on imports, poor government decisions have
im not really sure what youre saying with "The EU is co-ordinating integration of energy markets"

[also this is an example of where geography is very important :)]


We paid £10bn+ every year into the EU for our membership.

Are you claiming it will cost us, an island, £10bn+ a year to carry our Customs checks which we already carry out every hour on non-EU goods?

no, read what i actually said and dont put words into my mouth
our net contribution was also not 10bn



Most countries in world are not part of Single Markets and Customs Unions.

Britain is the 5th largest economy in the world out of nearly 200 countries, in what way are we "small"?

disingenuous to compare countries to markets
it only takes a few disproportionally large players to set the rules as seen in my example

as you like to point these kind of things out as well, over the next decade we are likely to slip further from #5


Feel free to explain what part of it is wrong.

whats wrong is you do not give any critical view of your own opinion, you will happily twist everything to be anti-eu without questioning any of the pros/cons of it
the same can also be said of anyone on the opposite side of it, my point was that looking up something and accepting it from one source is a bad idea



If supply chains have collapsed (which they have due to Coronavirus) it means less hassle for businesses in changing supply chains post-31st Dec.

What have you got to say to refute this simple logic?


again youve just made a claim about supply chains without any evidence which is my point - where is the evidence? plenty of businesses are/were still going
i also dont see now how you can claim its less hassle when you have no experience in the profession

anyway i am done in this thread now

[-:Undertaker:-]

Gove today:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQdlxf1bunI


The EU aims to enable EU citizens to study, live, shop, work and retire in any EU country and enjoy products from all over Europe. To do this, it ensures free movement of goods, services, capital and persons in a single EU internal market.
https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/single-market_en

We know about this. We also know that the vast majority of Britons will never and never intended to live and work in the EU, other than enjoying a week or two there on holiday every summer. We also know that the main driving force behind Britain's decision to leave the EU was the fact that Britain had no control over its immigration policy in regard to EU nationals because of Freedom of Movement.


hence the quotations marks, "disputed"

I don't see what this has to do with Britain's membership of the EU.

Are you suggesting Spain is going to invade Gibraltar because we've left the EU?


if geography doesnt matter then why did one of your hypotheticals critique the distance of moving produce

Because it matters only very slightly.

I regularly order things online from as far as China as I do from as far as Germany (the EU).


i guess it wasnt obvious but clearly i meant land borders with the eu

We have one land border with the EU and we agreed the CTA with southern Ireland long before the EU was even thought of. As a sovereign state, we're perfectly capable of policing and managing our own borders like virtually every other nation does.


this has nothing to do with what i said - we do have a greater reliance on clearing euros than canada and australia


Are you suggesting we should cut the EU off from the powerful City of London if they decide to play around? Good idea, I agree.


where do you plan on making up the slack if we no longer had access to energy from eu countries? eu policy hasnt made us reliant on imports, poor government decisions have
im not really sure what youre saying with "The EU is co-ordinating integration of energy markets"

Those poor policy choices are a result of EU energy policy which aims to create a Single Market in the energy sector. Creating a Single Market in the energy sector means ensuring that national borders (law) cannot impede that market.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/priorities/energy-union-and-climate/fully-integrated-internal-energy-market_en

So yes, it is regrettable that we are now partly dependent on the continent for energy, but thankfully we never reached the point where we were totally integrated into the EU energy market as extracting ourselves would then have been more difficult.


[also this is an example of where geography is very important :)]

We import most of our uranium from non-EU Kazakhstan - a landlocked country 3,000 miles away in Central Asia.


no, read what i actually said and dont put words into my mouth
our net contribution was also not 10bn

You're right, I got the figure wrong - the real figure (in 2019) was £20 billion without the rebate, and £15.5 billion with the rebate.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31#:~:text=In%202018%20the%20UK's%20gross,actually %20transferred%20to%20the%20EU.


disingenuous to compare countries to markets
it only takes a few disproportionally large players to set the rules as seen in my example

Really?

So given America is the largest market in the world, can you point me to examples where countries have adopted whole swathes of US regulations and laws on entire sectors into their lawbooks? And where they've placed themselves under the jurisdiction of the SCOTUS to enforce those laws? Or even examples with China, the second largest market in the world. Or even Japan, the third largest market in the world.

Indeed, given we're the 5th largest market in the world... your logic suggests 195 other countries will soon be adopting our trade regs?


as you like to point these kind of things out as well, over the next decade we are likely to slip further from #5

And along with Russia and Germany, we're expected to be one of only 3 European countries still in the top 10 by 2050.

http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20200322-five-superpowers-ruling-the-world-in-2050

10th out of 200 countries? I'm quite happy with that.


whats wrong is you do not give any critical view of your own opinion, you will happily twist everything to be anti-eu without questioning any of the pros/cons of it
the same can also be said of anyone on the opposite side of it, my point was that looking up something and accepting it from one source is a bad idea

Thus far I have not seen an emergency budget, a Brexit-caused recession or medicinal shortages. I'm still waiting.


again youve just made a claim about supply chains without any evidence which is my point - where is the evidence? plenty of businesses are/were still going
i also dont see now how you can claim its less hassle when you have no experience in the profession

Logic 101 really. The economy is not running at 100%...... therefore there will be less upheaval to supply chains now.

In a few days time it will have been 4 years since the referendum. In 6 months we'll be completely free - what we voted for.

[dbgtz]

i have no interest in a long reply to you undertaker as even when you have been without a doubt proven wrong in the past, you just ignore it



the only thing i want to say is the fact you linked to that ONS article and pushed out that 15.5bn either shows you havent fully read the article, you didn't understand the article, or you didnt accept the article.

[-:Undertaker:-]

i have no interest in a long reply to you undertaker as even when you have been without a doubt proven wrong in the past, you just ignore it

You keep saying that but we're yet to see any of your predictions from 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 come true.

Can you provide even just one prediction for post-31st December so we can hold you to it?


the only thing i want to say is the fact you linked to that ONS article and pushed out that 15.5bn either shows you havent fully read the article, you didn't understand the article, or you didnt accept the article.

What? Can you not see the massive graph on the ONS page?

We pay them £15.5bn a year after the rebate is handed back. Fact.

[dbgtz]

bolding your statement doesnt make you correct

i dont believe youve actually read it and you just skimmed and pulled out the first thing, otherwise you wouldnt have said it was data from 2019 and then claim we pay 15.5bn a year

[Seatherny]

Britain has been in the top 5 economies of the world since around the 1600s/1700s.

We joined the EU in 1973.



"The public are stupid because my side of the argument was so unconvincing"



Can I ask you when the economic collapse will occur from us leaving the EU, as your side predicted? First you said it would collapse with a Leave vote, then you said it would do so when we actually left, now you're side are saying after the transition. The Doomsday date seems to be continuously moving forward so I am curious as to when will we actually see a measurable recession that we can say is down to Britain not being in the EU?



The public ARE stupid. They are gullible and many are uneducated fools.

And economy has suffered, look at the stats. And the GBP collapsed. I am losing over £200,000 per year in currency exchange due to the amount I import from India/China.

[-:Undertaker:-]

bolding your statement doesnt make you correct

i dont believe youve actually read it and you just skimmed and pulled out the first thing, otherwise you wouldnt have said it was data from 2019 and then claim we pay 15.5bn a year

You seem to be claiming that we should knock off the money the EU then spends here. But that isn't our contribution, the contribution is the amount we send them just as your wage is what your company pays you each month, not your wage minus your mortgage/rent and heating bills. In the same way that the Department for Foreign Aid doesn't calculate the amount of Aid spent by knocking off any money that is then spent on British companies. It seems to be only the EU we're expected to apply this strange way of looking at funding to, but nothing else.

We pay the EU £20bn, and after rebate that is £15.5bn according to the ONS. Either way, anything over a penny is too much.


The public ARE stupid. They are gullible and many are uneducated fools.

If the public are so stupid then they surely would have fell for your emergency budget and immediate recession claims? (that never happened)

That the Great British public can see through nonsense like that surely shows they're far more intelligent than Remain gave them credit for.


And economy has suffered, look at the stats. And the GBP collapsed. I am losing over £200,000 per year in currency exchange due to the amount I import from India/China.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-EUR-2015

Today £1 will buy you €1.11

Back in March 2010 it would've bought you €1.11

In January 2015 it would've bought you €1.27

The fact is that the Pound rallied far too high in the run-up to the referendum as currency speculators bet heavily on a Remain win in the referendum, and when that didn't conspire were left with egg on their faces. That's rich boys with more money than sense for you who take everything they read in the mainstream media as gospel like Cameron boasting at the G20 summit in 2014 that he was going to win by 70% to 30%, rather than listening to what was being said in the pubs and cafes across Britain this time four years ago.

TDLR; Currencies go up and down and the Earth continues to rotate.

[Seatherny]

Today £1 will buy you €1.11

Back in March 2010 it would've bought you €1.11

In January 2015 it would've bought you €1.27

The fact is that the Pound rallied far too high in the run-up to the referendum as currency speculators bet heavily on a Remain win in the referendum, and when that didn't conspire were left with egg on their faces. That's rich boys with more money than sense for you who take everything they read in the mainstream media as gospel like Cameron boasting at the G20 summit in 2014 that he was going to win by 70% to 30%, rather than listening to what was being said in the pubs and cafes across Britain this time four years ago.

TDLR; Currencies go up and down and the Earth continues to rotate.



The fact you are comparing GBP to EURO for a comparison on the true strength of the GBP shows your lack of knowledge on this topic. The USD is the bench mark currency, not EURO. This is why most international trades are quoted in USD. In 2010, GBP to USD was 1.60, today it is 1.235 and falling. Once the referendum was announced, GBP traded between 1.45-1.55 against the USD. The day the result was announced, it collapsed to 1.20 and since then it has stayed around this.

Dan, you do not need to quote charts to me, I trade millions in currency every year, I know the exchange rates by heart. I know the true losses suffered by British businesses due to Brexit and the uncertainity caused by it has led pound to fall dramatically.

"Currencies go up and down and Earth continues to rotate" - and Earth will continue to rotate no matter what happens politically. I do not know why you come up with these lines when they are pointless and do not add any meaning to the discussion.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The fact you are comparing GBP to EURO for a comparison on the true strength of the GBP shows your lack of knowledge on this topic. The USD is the bench mark currency, not EURO. This is why most international trades are quoted in USD. In 2010, GBP to USD was 1.60, today it is 1.235 and falling. Once the referendum was announced, GBP traded between 1.45-1.55 against the USD. The day the result was announced, it collapsed to 1.20 and since then it has stayed around this.

Dan, you do not need to quote charts to me, I trade millions in currency every year, I know the exchange rates by heart. I know the true losses suffered by British businesses due to Brexit and the uncertainity caused by it has led pound to fall dramatically.

"Currencies go up and down and Earth continues to rotate" - and Earth will continue to rotate no matter what happens politically. I do not know why you come up with these lines when they are pointless and do not add any meaning to the discussion.

Fine, let's use the USD as our comparison then.


In 2010, €1 = $1.4

In 2015, €1 = $1.2

In 2020, €1 = $1.06


So against the American Dollar, the Euro has fallen dramatically.

Now correct me if I am wrong, but I think I am right in saying that the EU hasn't left the EU?

Like I said originally - currencies rise and fall, and the GBP was vastly overinflated in the run up to the referendum by currency speculators.

[dbgtz]

if you look at any currency value graph you will see that a general downtrend in the value of the pound, but also you can see the day it tanked due to the result. there was a slight increase pre-referendum, but the amount it decreases by it still far lower than it had been for months

anyway to get back to the ons article, if you actually read it you will see clearly it states that:However, in the last few years the EC figures have been volatile and so a five-year average has been taken to better represent a “typical” contribution. and it provides a figure of ~13.5 after rebate

my issue with everything youve said isnt even the money, its the fact you either, as i said before, you didnt read the article, you didnt understand the article or you deliberately chose to be misleading

[dbgtz]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/pound-sterling-developing-country-currency-brexit-a9583106.html

[-:Undertaker:-]

if you look at any currency value graph you will see that a general downtrend in the value of the pound, but also you can see the day it tanked due to the result. there was a slight increase pre-referendum, but the amount it decreases by it still far lower than it had been for months

And like I keep saying, currencies go up and down. It really isn't the end of the world.

If Sterling had actually crashed, as in what the Turksh Lira has done or the Venezuelan currency, then you might have a point.


anyway to get back to the ons article, if you actually read it you will see clearly it states that:However, in the last few years the EC figures have been volatile and so a five-year average has been taken to better represent a “typical” contribution. and it provides a figure of ~13.5 after rebate

Alright, £13.5bn - so my figure of "£10bn+" was right.