Cameron facing another rebellion on EU referendum
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...eferendum.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...veto-eu-treaty
Storm brewing: the numbers game suggests Cameron will have to back down over a EU referendum
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Originally Posted by Mail
Tory MP Bernard Jenkin, a veteran of the Maastricht revolt against John Major’s European policy, today predicts that David Cameron will be forced to abandon his refusal to hold a referendum on the proposed new 'fiscal union' treaty outlined by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday. Jenkin spoke for many people when he said that it was 'incomprehensible' to argue that a fiscal pact in the Eurozone did not represent a change in the terms of Britain’s membership of the EU and therefore Cameron should honour his pledge to grant a referendum. Both the parliamentary numbers and the pro-independence tide of public opinion suggest that Jenkin is right.
John Major had an overall parliamentary majority in the mid-twenties which steadily dwindled over the 1992-1997 Parliament as the ravages of time and illness took its toll. He faced a hard core of about 25 rebel MPs plus another 25-50 sympathisers whose support he could not always count open. He even withdrew the whip from a small group of diehards in fury at their persistent disloyalty. Labour supported the treaty, meaning that Major could normally be confident of victory. But Labour also combined with the rebels to inflict a severe defeat on the PM, prompting a confidence vote that the Government won quite comfortably.
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Originally Posted by Mail
But the numbers today are very different. Cameron has only 306 MPs, 20 short of an overall majority of one and has to rely on 57 Liberal Democrats to give him a safe cushion in the Commons. In the recent vote on a referendum, Labour voted with the Coalition but ominously for Cameron, more than half his backbenchers (about 100) rebelled despite them being on a three-line whip to support HMG at all costs. Among 110 Tory ministers and their unpaid parliamentary aides, it seems a safe bet that at least half privately sympathise with the rebels. And many of the backbenchers who backed the PM did so with great reluctance.
So the numbers game suggests that anything like 150-200 Tory Ministers and MPs believe that it is now time to try to settle the ongoing dispute about Britain’s relationship with the EU by staging a referendum. Nor, given the mildly Eurosceptic noises emanating from the Labour leadership, can Cameron be sure that the Opposition will side with him in resisting the pressure for a plebiscite. So these are dangerous waters for the PM. If Labour switched sides on a referendum, he would almost certainly lose a Commons vote and his Coalition Government would collapse. Even if Labour backed him, Cameron would be left presiding over a deeply divided administration and party and would be gravely damaged in much the same way as John Major.
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Originally Posted by Mail
The parliamentary numbers are stacked against Cameron and, although the Lib Dems are playing the role of the pro-European “wets” in the Major government, there are not enough of them to redress the balance. But the other point is public opinion. UKIP is now level-pegging with the Lib Dems and it threatens to deprive the Tories of serious numbers of votes at the next election. Powerful centre-right newspapers such as the Daily Mail, The Daily Telegraph, The Sun and The Daily Express are all pressing for a referendum.
Bernard Jenkin is right. David Cameron will have to bow to the inevitable and give the British people the final say on their European destiny.
There is no doubt now that the endgame is approaching, referendum or no referendum. The Euro is on its final legs with only months if not a year or so left before the nation states begin to default across Europe and the European Union is increasingly being overcome by events which are economical and not political - and in the end, as Margaret Thatcher once stated; you cannot buck the markets.
The EU is attempting another power grab over the Euro states which will effect us because in areas where we have a vote remaining (a veto under QMV) we will be out numbered by 17 against 10 (and lets say for instance if the Euro were to survive, only two of the nations of the group of 10 have a permanent opt-out of the Euro) meaning we'd eventually be left with 2 to 25 when it comes to QMV votes. Do you think this warrants a referendum on any treaty changes, like Cameron promised?
At the last election I warned the issue of Europe is the biggest issue of our time and that it would rear its head again and again, and it has just as it brought down Edward Heath, Margaret Thatcher and John Major - it will never go away while we remain a part of it. We need to decide as a country whether we choose independence and prosperity, or subjection whilst tied to a sinking ship.
The question is, will Tory MPs finally en masse grow a backbone and rebel/defect?
Thoughts? will the demise of this government be brought about by the issue of Europe? will the Euro and the European Union survive the crisis?
