State of the Parties

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ate-storm.html

Tories' poll rating plummets in wake of Plebgate storm

- Conservatives 13 points behind Labour
- Liberal Democrats 4 points behind UKIP
- Public say Mitchell must resign as MP and give up Cabinet seat
- Prime Minister David Cameron and Osborne are seen as 'arrogant'

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/...32_634x494.jpg
Pictured is a graph showing the parties' latest standings. Conservative support is at its lowest for 30 years

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Originally Posted by Mail

The ‘plebgate’ affair over Tory MP Andrew Mitchell has sent David Cameron’s poll ratings plummeting, and he is under fire for not getting rid of his Chief Whip sooner. Conservative support has fallen to 30 per cent, a drop of five points in ten days and only one point ahead of the Tories’ lowest score since the 2010 Election. Ed Miliband’s Labour has stretched its lead to 13 points on 43 per cent, with Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems scoring eight points, a humiliating four points behind Nigel Farage's UKIP, which has 12, according to a Mail on Sunday poll.

The incident also threatens to undo years of work by Mr Cameron to rid the Conservatives of their ‘Nasty Party’ image. Forty-seven per cent say the Tories have not ditched the damaging tag, against 32 per cent who say they have. And the ‘arrogant and posh boys’ jibe by Tory MP Nadine Dorries at Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne continues to resonate. A total of 56 per cent say the Prime Minister is arrogant, with 59 per cent holding the same view of Mr Osborne. By contrast, only 45 per cent say Mr Miliband is arrogant.

But the Prime Minister is still streets ahead as a serious figure. Nearly one in two regard him as a statesman.

Mr Miliband scores a dismal 22 on this count.

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For the Conservatives to be on 30% (and they've been on that for most of the past year despite the headline) already it is pretty bad, I remember Gordon Brown's Labour being that low at the height of his unpopularity. Indeed, unless something drastic occurs (ie Labour manage to make themselves look worse than the Tories) then it is almost certain Edward Miliband will walk through the doors of Number 10 in 2015 with a large and workable majority. Indeed, i'm considering putting a bet on the fact that the Tories will not win a majority in 2015 based on historical patterns.

And it is true polls aren't everything - but historically polling has predicted the UKIP percentage accurately when the party used to poll 2% to 3%. But interesting that the ratings continue to grow with two other recent polls putting them at 10% and 9%, and they always say that 15% is the tipping point.. no longer can it be considered a 'wasted vote'. A non-establishment party to be polling this high is very out of the ordinary in our FPTP system.

Thoughts? any ideas on who you lend your vote to in a few years time? it'd be interesting to see how voting patterns have shifted on the forum since the last election.

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Survation interviewed 1,002 people online on Friday evening and yesterday.

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I'm sorry but the small size of the sample and the timings of the poll mean that it's skewed to a ridiculous extent and meaningless to try and draw any conclusions from this.

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Originally Posted by Chippiewill

I'm sorry but the small size of the sample and the timings of the poll mean that it's skewed to a ridiculous extent and meaningless to try and draw any conclusions from this.

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Actually 1,000 is a typical sample size for mid-term polling and indeed, that is why Survation does monthly polls along with YouGov and so forth to determine a trend (which I mentioned in the post itself). Polling is never 100% correct, why would it be. But as pollsters rely on accuracy in order to have people commission polls.... it's pretty darn accurate - especially when you compare Survation to other established polling companies like YouGov, Ipsos Mori and so on.

If you want a direct link to the site which monitors all the reliable polls and thus establishes a trend, it's here http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ He also looks into the methodology.

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Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

But as pollsters rely on accuracy in order to have people commission polls.... it's pretty darn accurate

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Pretty certain that the Daily Mail couldn't care less about accuracy so long as it's skewed in the direction they want.

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Originally Posted by Chippiewill

Pretty certain that the Daily Mail couldn't care less about accuracy so long as it's skewed in the direction they want.

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The Daily Mail commissions the poll, it doesn't carry out the poll. If you are really interested instead of making blind assumptions, then you can read the methodology tabs for this poll via the link I provided above along with comparing with others polls which have shown the same results for the papers which commissioned them (the Guardian, the Sun etc).

How do we know this poll is fairly accurate? because the questions are sound as is the polling company and the results fit in with the trend.

I don't find polls all that interesting and I certainly wouldn't want to rely on them. Taking 1,000 of the population doesn't necessarily mean they will represent the views of the entire voting population. This is afterall <1% of the population that has been polled.

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Originally Posted by GommeInc

I don't find polls all that interesting and I certainly wouldn't want to rely on them. Taking 1,000 of the population doesn't necessarily mean they will represent the views of the entire voting population. This is afterall <1% of the population that has been polled.

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Indeed, but as usual they show a trend and are usually (although not always, Labour 1992 for example) right.

The point is, the trend is interesting. And sadly I have to bring this to people's attention as the usual reply was "UKIP will never get anywhere"... well that's just not true as shown by these figures.