Originally Posted by Telegraph
Downing Street said it would tell ministers to abstain this week from a key vote that effectively calls for Mr Cameron’s pledge to have an in/out referendum on Europe in 2017 to be put into law.
Eurosceptic MPs are planning a vote that will “express regret” that the Queen’s Speech did not contain a “paving Bill” for a referendum — an absence that has prompted fury among Tory backbenchers.
Downing Street said that ministers would be expected to abstain from the vote — creating the almost unprecedented situation where members of the Government would not vote in support of the Queen’s Speech.
The plan creates a loyalty test for every Cabinet minister and more junior members of the Government.
If any of the approximately 100 ministers and parliamentary private secretaries (PPEs) were to vote for the motion, it would be a huge embarrassment to Mr Cameron.
One minister told The Sunday Telegraph: “I’m afraid abstaining does show the weakness of the Prime Minister. He can’t force ministers to vote against this amendment because some of us would walk out.”
Mr Cameron announced in January that a Conservative government would hold an in/out referendum if it won the 2015 election. Backbenchers have since ramped up the pressure for a “paving Bill” despite the Prime Minister saying that he cannot bring forward legislation for a referendum because it is not supported by the Liberal Democrats.
Lord Forsyth, one of the party’s most respected figures on the Right, who was a close confidant of Baroness Thatcher, becomes the latest Tory grandee, after Lord Lawson and Michael Portillo, to intervene in the debate.
He writes in The Sunday Telegraph demanding legislation in this Parliament for a referendum. He says claims that Britain would lose jobs and investment by quitting the EU are “scare stories” and suggests Mr Cameron is intellectually incoherent for on the one hand agreeing to a 2014 Scottish referendum, and on the other not legislating for a EU-plebiscite.
“The Prime Minister is being held hostage by Nick Clegg and the Liberals who are afraid to allow the British people a vote,” he writes. “[He] should put his country before the Coalition and introduce a Bill now to give the British people their say.”
The vote this week — which has still to be sanctioned by John Bercow, the Speaker — promises to be a dramatic parliamentary moment.
It is one of the biggest tests yet for the Prime Minister. Last week, as the motion was proposed, Downing Street suggested that ministers could be allowed to support the amendment. However, yesterday No 10 came up with its new plan: to allow Tory backbenchers a free vote, while making it clear that all ministers and PPSs would be expected to abstain.
Within hours, the plan was dubbed bizarre and “bonkers” by Conservative MPs. There were signs it could fall apart before being put into play.
Ministers had still not been officially told about the No10 decision last night.
A source close to a Conservative Cabinet minister sarcastically wished No10 “good luck” with the plan, and added: “Downing Street is gambling that every single Cabinet minister will abstain.
“But if a single one decides to vote in favour then a few could easily do so — and where does that leave us?”
Another senior Tory told The Sunday Telegraph that the promise of an in/out referendum in 2017 was a “credibility” issue for Mr Cameron and the mass abstention plan simply showed “equivocation”, which could make matters worse for the Government.
One PPS said: “I can understand why this is being done, but it makes us look cross-eyed.”
A Conservative backbencher said: “This is more than bizarre. It sounds absolutely bonkers.”
And in a sign of the pressure on the party, there were reports last night that Downing Street was trying to persuade Tory MPs to withdraw their amendment.
Rebel Tory backbenchers led by John Baron and Peter Bone announced that they would table their amendment to the Queen’s Speech last week in response to the dramatic rise in support for Ukip in the local elections earlier this month. Their intervention came after a statement from Lord Lawson, who has been backed by Lord Lamont, the former chancellor.
The amendment — that “this House respectfully regrets that an EU Referendum Bill was not included in the Gracious Speech” — reflects the views of scores of Tory backbenchers, and many ministers, who want legislation “locking in” Mr Cameron’s promise of an “in/out” referendum in 2017 on Britain’s EU membership.
In an article for this newspaper today, Mr Baron argues that the Prime Minister’s promise is “not yet believable”. He warns: “British voters are deeply sceptical of politicians making promises on Europe — too many have been broken in the past.”
If Mr Bercow chooses the rebel Tory amendment for a vote, as he is expected to do, and the No 10 plan holds, it could produce chaotic and unprecedented scenes in the Commons next week.
Liberal Democrat ministers would vote against it because they do not want a referendum on the EU.
The vast majority of Labour MPs are also expected to oppose it. Meanwhile, scores of Tory ministers and PPSs would abstain — effectively failing to support their own Queen’s Speech which sets out the Government’s legislative plans for the next 12 months — including key measures on immigration, social care and pensions.
Before news emerged of the mass abstention plan, Tory MPs speculated that as many as half a dozen Cabinet ministers — including Iain Duncan Smith, Owen Paterson, Chris Grayling, Theresa May, Michael Gove and Philip Hammond — could support the rebel amendment.
Stuart Andrew, PPS to Francis Maude, the Cabinet Office minister, said he would “probably abstain” — before hearing of the mass abstention plan. Mr Andrew previously voted against the Government over Europe 18 months ago.
A No 10 source said the plan was one of “the realities of coalition government” and added: “We are very relaxed about this. If we whipped our MPs into voting against the John Baron amendment we would be whipping them to vote against something we actually believe in — how bizarre would that be?”
However, even success in securing complete abstention by the “payroll vote” will not end the turmoil in Tory ranks.
Mr Baron uses his article today to vow not to let the matter drop. He adds: “There should be no doubt that in the coming weeks, colleagues and I will seek every possible means to bring legislation to Parliament — through Private Members’ Bills, Presentation Bills and other avenues.”
Bill Cash, a leading Eurosceptic MP, said: “It is vital this amendment is allowed to go through.
“David Cameron would be cheered to the rafters not just in the Conservative Party but by millions of people around the country if he held an EU referendum before 2015. I am certain that if he did so it would deliver victory at the next general election.”
There were also signs that the Lib Dems are not entirely united on Europe.
In an interview with this newspaper, Vince Cable, the Lib Dem Business Secretary, takes a different line from his leader, Nick Clegg, over the dangers of a possible EU exit.
Last week Mr Clegg warned that this would put up to three million jobs at risk, but Mr Cable says such judgments are “too extreme”.
Mr Cable also comes close to agreeing with Lord Lawson, the former Tory chancellor, that Britain’s trade might be able to thrive years after leaving the EU — after an initial “hit”. However, he warns that leaving would create “big uncertainty” for businesses.
The Labour front bench has so far remained united and yesterday Ed Miliband, the party leader, said it was “wrong” for Mr Cameron to have committed to a referendum up to four years in the future.
However, some backbenchers have expressed concern that Labour is failing to get a grip on an increasingly Eurosceptic public mood.
