Originally Posted by Tim Stanley, the Telegraph
Here’s a classic example of how the metropolitan elite gets it wrong every darned time. The latest immigration figures show that there are currently 144,000 Bulgarians and Romanians working in the UK – a rise of 26 per cent since 2013 and 44 per cent since 2012. “Ah, but,” says the aristocracy of Notting Hill, “the number actually fell after work restrictions were lifted in January. And didn’t Nigel Farage say that we’d be swamped with migrants in the New Year?”
Well, if he did say that then he had drunk too much London Pride: the idea that the whole of Bucharest was going to relocate to Bexhill on January 1, 2014 was a nonsense. But the failure of that particular prophecy to come true is beside-the-point. As is the small dip in the numbers since the restrictions were lifted. What will actually matter to most voters reading these words is that there are now 144,000 Bulgarians and Romanians working here. That’s the equivalent of building a whole new Notting Hill. A frightening thought in itself.
A word about the figures. First, the number of Bulgarians and Romanians might be down 4,000 since January but they are up 29,000 compared with a year ago. Second, we’re talking about net migration, so while some people will have left the country since the New Year, many new may have arrived – which means that the small overall fall might disguise fresh arrivals. Third, the work restrictions were lifted in all EU countries – so it’s likely that many Bulgarians and Romanians have chosen to work in other nations rather than our own (but may come here eventually). Finally, the number that really matters in the report is the one that shows there are now an astonishing 4.5 million non-UK workers here in Britain. That represents a 7 per cent increase year-on-year.
So will voters look at the latest figures and think, “Nigel Farage got it wrong?” Or will they look at them and think, “Ok, so the Bulgarians and Romanians didn’t all arrive in one go aboard a Megabus, but 144,000 still seems like a large number and 4.5 million is eye-watering?” The latter, probably. People approach this issue on an instinctual level.
The establishment doesn’t understand that Ukip doesn’t get judged by the same political standards as the mainstream parties. When David Cameron or Ed Miliband makes a prediction and gets it wrong, they suffer in the polls. But when Ukip talks about “invasions” or “swamping”, they are dealing in metaphors rather than statistical facts – and the floating voter senses that they contain a kernel of truth, even if they are shrouded in tub-thumping nonsense. Yes, there is something dark about Ukip’s conversion from a libertarian eurosceptic party to a populist nativist one, and there is something farcical about its tendency to make up warnings and solutions on the spot. But they are a protest vote, not a vote for a Prime Minister, so people will tolerate their mistakes. Moreover, Ukip’s fumbling pessimism accords with the experiences of most Britons. Our lives have not gotten better in the last six years but much worse. The middle-classes are overtaxed. The working-classes – white, black, Asian, whatever – have to compete for work with EU migrants while the price of living goes ever upwards. For everyone living outside of the metropolitan Xanadu, mass immigration is not about celebrating our wonderful diversity as a continent (viva Conchita!) but about fewer jobs, school places, council houses, hospital beds.
No one is for zero immigration: they want controlled immigration. And these latest figures will add to the sense that we don't have any real control over our borders, that they are too porous and that this works to the detriment of regular Britons. That's what matters and that's what people will probably vote on next Thursday.
