Australian support for monarchy has continued to grow, research finds
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...public-revived
Australian support for monarchy has grown as debate for republic revived
Things have changed since the 1999 republic referendum, and earlier beliefs of a drop in support for the ancient institution were wrong, research paper says
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Originally Posted by Guardian
Australians’ support for the monarchy has grown steadily since the 1999 republic referendum, showing the “folly” of previous predictions that constitutional change was inevitable, new research suggests.
A paper published in the Australian Journal of Political Science examines the shift in attitudes between the late 1960s and now, and helps to explain pro-republic Australian Prime Minister's Malcolm Turnbull’s reluctance to champion the issue.
It finds that support for the monarchy fell sharply in the 1990s – a period that included “significant” royal scandals, the divorce of Prince Charles and Diana, and the decision by the Labor prime minister Paul Keating to campaign to move towards a republic.
After a low point in support for the monarchy at the turn of the century, when voters rejected the form of a republic proposed in the 1999 referendum, the standing of the royals has recovered.
Luke Mansillo, a PhD candidate at the University of Sydney, points to “considerable improvements” in the monarchy’s public profile, culminating in Prince William’s wedding to Catherine Middleton in 2011, and the births of Prince George in 2013 and Princess Charlotte in 2015.
Mansillo suggests in the paper that “this improved profile and the declining number and frequency of royal scandals improved the Australian public’s image of the monarchy”. It enabled younger Australians to develop more positive attitudes towards it, and those of older Australians were repaired.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian
“Previous expectations of continual erosion of support for the ancient institution were folly,” he writes. “Monarchy has become more popular in a country that is better educated and less religious.”
The paper draws on data from previous research, including the Australian Election Study, a long-running project to canvass public opinion in each federal election year.
In 1998, 34% believed Australia should “definitely become a republic” and a further 32% believed it should “probably become a republic”, a total of 66%.
By 2013, definite support for a republic had fallen to 26% and probable support had declined to 27%, a total of 53%.
Over the same period, total support for retaining the Queen increased from 34% to 47%, the Australian Election Study showed.
Turnbull and the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, support a republic but they differ on whether now is the time to pave the way for another referendum.
Turnbull – who led the Australian Republican Movement before the 1999 referendum defeat and accused the then prime minister, John Howard, of “breaking this nation’s heart” – played down the prospects for another attempt when he ousted the avowed monarchist Tony Abbott from the Liberal leadership last year.
On Tuesday he restated his view that the next occasion to consider a referendum would be after the end of the Queen’s reign, and said it would succeed only if it was driven by a genuine grassroots movement rather than imposed by politicians.
Every Australia Day it is the same old story from a certain group of people in Australia. Become a republic. Change the flag. Change the date of Australia day. But as the trends and polling from the last two decades shows - credit to former Prime Minister John Howard and his policies to bolster support for Australia's institutions and heritage - support for the monarchy and the flag continues to grow after the low point of the 1990s especially among younger age groups.
A lot of republicans are calculating that the death of Queen Elizabeth II will be the best time to push again for a republic but I think they are miscalculating what the mood will be as well as the broader trends that are, slowly, moving against them. A republic inevitable? Not so.
Thoughts? What do Australian forum members think of the annual republic/flag/date change calls every Australia Day?
