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Then it must be your nat type that's moderate, it only lets you connect if you're lucky and such, it's like that for me too, I sometimes can't connect but after a while I can, try log into your router and change your nat type to open, there's tutorials on YouTube how to do it. Benefits of Nat type set to open; faster matchmaking etc.
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But weve had our xbox's for about 1 and abit years and they have never done this
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It's usually upto your ISP or router I think. And it's perfectly normal, usually I can't connect to friends but after trying 5 or so times it works. It's NXE not you then :P