Originally Posted by Telegraph
Tony Abbott, the British-born leader of the Australian Liberal Party, has been ridiculed as a boorish brawler, whose deep conservatism and apparent misogyny ought to make him terminally unelectable. A monarchist and a devout Catholic who once trained to be a priest, his nicknames have included “Dr No”, “The Mad Monk” and “People Skills” (because he was presumed not to have any).
Yet this Saturday, Australians vote in the federal election and – if the opinion polls are correct – Mr Abbott will silence the naysayers. He is set to defeat Kevin Rudd to become the country’s 28th prime minister and usher in a new era of conservative government in Australia, after just two terms of shaky Labor rule.
Australians, and the world, will soon find out in which direction the country will head under a man whose contradictions have been on stark display since his school days in Sydney.
The 55-year-old father of three, who won an Oxford boxing Blue as a Rhodes Scholar, has urged his daughters to remain virgins until they marry, but admitted he long believed that he had fathered a child while at university; he has been a tireless and disciplined campaigner but has a propensity for verbal slip-ups; he presents himself as an “inspired pragmatist”, yet is dismissed by critics as a wily conservative ideologue.
For his part, Mr Abbott, who was mentored by the former longstanding Liberal prime minister John Howard, has never shied away from laying out a consistent political philosophy. “I’m not someone who wants to see radical change based on the fashion of the moment,” he said in a radio interview last month. “I’m not saying that our culture, our traditions are perfect, but we have to respect them, and my idea is to build on the strength of our society, and I support, by and large, evolutionary change.”
As a monarchist who opposes same-sex marriage, who strongly supported the Iraq war and who once referred to climate change science as “absolute crap”, he has frequently swum against the tide of public opinion. Just four years ago, when he was still in something of the political wilderness, Mr Abbott elaborated on his world view in his book Battlelines. Signalling his strong support for socially conservative values, he praised Mr Howard’s sceptical stances on multiculturalism, Aboriginal reconciliation and a republic, and applauded his crusade against a “nagging doubt about Australia’s legitimacy as a country”.
“Conservatism is a pragmatic, eclectic creed, above all respectful of what’s stood the test of time,” he wrote. “A politician has to be a leader but cannot be a dictator.” Of his reputation as an unyielding and overly aggressive political combatant, he admitted: “Political parties, no less than rugby teams, need some hard men.”
However, after brutally and effectively attacking Labor for the past four years, particularly over its policies on climate change and asylum seekers, Mr Abbott has tried to steer away from that hard-man image. A fitness-obsessed cyclist, swimmer and volunteer lifeguard, he has used the five-week campaign to present himself as a calm, reliable alternative to Labor, which has changed leaders twice in three years.
In recent months, he has largely avoided being seen in public in tight-fitting Lycra cycling gear or in his trademark red “budgie smuggler” swimming trunks. Instead, he has frequently appeared with his two younger daughters, Frances, 22, and Bridget, 20, who introduced him at his official campaign launch – a job typically reserved for a party stalwart.
“For us, he’s not just the guy on TV, he’s the man, along with our mum, who has helped us to become the women we are today,” said Frances.
His daughters, who support same-sex marriage and regard themselves as non-devout Christians, have helped to demonstrate that he does not shun those with whom he differs – a handy message, given the unpopularity of some of his social views. Louise, 24, his oldest daughter, has been living in Switzerland but returned this week to be with the family ahead of her father’s likely victory.
Asked whether he would encourage his daughters to become politicians, particularly after the harsh personal attacks made on Julia Gillard, Australia’s first female prime minister – which he was often accused of orchestrating – he said it would be “a tough call, a very tough call”.
“I would want to warn them that it is a pretty tough field, and if you’re going to go into it, you’re going to cop a lot of barbs,” he said. “That’s why in this business you’ve got to have a thick skin as well as a strong ego.”
Mr Abbott has delivered his fair share of barbs over the years and shown few gaps in his ego. He appeared at protests against Ms Gillard in front of signs referring to her as “*****” and “witch” – and she later denounced him as sexist and a misogynist in parliament.
Though he remains a somewhat divisive figure and has high disapproval ratings, Australians appear to have accepted the idea that he will be their next prime minister. Earlier this week, for the first time in his four-year rivalry with Mr Rudd, he finally emerged in the polls as the preferred prime minister, with a narrow lead of 43 to 41 per cent.
“The presidential style of campaigning Rudd wanted at this election – against an opposition leader Labor regarded as unelectable – no longer works,” a commentator, Peter Van Onselen, wrote in The Australian. “In fact, it has backfired.”
Mr Rudd has sought to pit himself directly against Mr Abbott, painting the opposition leader as a harsh, untrustworthy extremist who will deliver David Cameron-style austerity measures and risk driving Australia into a recession. The prime minister, a Mandarin-speaking former diplomat, has ridiculed his opponent’s description of the war in Syria as “baddies versus baddies” and denounced his reference to a Liberal candidate’s “sex appeal”. But Mr Abbott has not flinched.
Instead, he has stuck to the script that he has had four years as opposition leader to prepare. He has pledged to scrap Labor’s carbon tax and mining tax, will toughen measures to deter asylum seekers arriving by boat, will reduce the deficit and cut the public sector. He plans largely to stick with Labor’s plans for health and education spending and has refrained from advocating a return to Mr Howard’s tough, unpopular workplace laws.
His emblematic policy has been one that many in his party oppose – a plan to introduce one of the world’s most generous paid maternity leave schemes. It has helped to soften his image and enhance his appeal to women, but has been criticised by the business community as too expensive and unfair. The scheme will impose a tax on large companies and grant mothers up to six months’ pay on salaries of up to £90,000 a year.
“People say 'Oh, it’s too soon, it’s too expensive, it’s unfair, I didn’t get it, so why should anyone else get it?’” he said at the national press club this week. “Well, I think we’re better than that. I think we’re bigger than that, and this will be a signature reform should there be a change of government.”
Dr Zareh Ghazarian, from Monash University, an expert on Australian politics, believes Mr Abbott will not rule as an ideologue. Instead, he is likely to be a pragmatic social conservative – like Mr Howard – and will be “at least a two-term prime minister”.
“He will not be too hard-line and he is not an economic neo-liberal,” Dr Ghazarian says. “I believe he is a very wily politician. He has remodelled himself to be a far more appealing person and pragmatic person than we thought he would be. He will be a very, very cautious prime minister with one, if not two, eyes on the mood of the public.”
In opposition, Mr Abbott remained in place as Labor switched leaders from Mr Rudd to Ms Gillard in 2010 and then back to Mr Rudd in June. At the 2010 election, he ended Labor’s majority and forced Ms Gillard to preside over a minority government – Australia’s first in more than 70 years. She ruled with the support of the Greens, which prompted harsh attacks from Mr Abbott, who accused Labor of “selling its soul” and supporting “social engineering”.
Now he has focused his final days of campaigning on a pledge to deliver “stable government” instead of “confusion and chaos”. The polls show that Australian voters have been turned off by Labor’s turmoil. While they may remain wary of Mr Abbott, they are ready to give him a chance.
