Survation poll: Ukip surge to 25% (meaning 128 MPs) with Tories and Labour on 31%
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2014-1...5-in-new-poll/
Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday: Ukip surge to 25% following by-election victory, a result that would mean 128 MPs. Labour and the Tories on 31% each
- One in four Britons now back Nigel Farage's Ukip
- Ukip secure support of 30.3% of male voters, with 18.9% of women voters
- Four-points ahead of Tories in South-eastern heartlands on 37.6% of the vote
Labour 31% = 253 MPs
Conservatives 31% = 187 MPs
Ukip 25% = 128 MPs
Liberal Democrats 8% = 11 MPs
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daily Mail
Ukip has surged to 25% in the polls and the soaring level of support would secure the party an astonishing 128 MPs in a general election, experts have claimed.
In a staggering study for the Mail on Sunday fresh off the back of the eurosceptic party's by-election victory in Clacton, Nigel Farage has won the support of one in four voters and is on course to send shockwaves through parliament.
The Survation poll put the party on an all-time high and analysis has found that a repeat in May next year would see the Conservatives lose 100 seats and Ed Miliband in No 10.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daily Mail
Labour and the Tories are both on 31% while the Liberal Democrats are on 8%, according to the research for the newspaper.
Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the Mail on Sunday : "If Ukip are to turn votes into Commons seats in Britain's first-past-the-post system, they need to build up bastions of local strength. Today's poll suggests they may have begun to do that.
"T he 25% level represents a 22-point increase on the 3% the party won in 2010.
"If that increase were to occur evenly in every constituency, they could still fail to pick up a single seat.
"But today's poll suggests Ukip's support has increased much more in the south of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK - by a staggering 34 points.
"If that level was recorded throughout the South, Ukip could win as many as 128 seats, with no less than 102 of them coming from the Conservatives, whose vote in the region is down 14 points.
"In that event, Cameron would be left with just 187 seats, almost as weak a position as the Conservatives were in after their calamitous defeat in 1997.
"Mr Farage would achieve his ambition of holding the balance of power at Westminster. Any poll estimate of what is going on in an individual region is inevitably not as robust as that for the country as a whole.
"However, if Ukip are advancing more strongly in some parts of the South, its chances of establishing itself as a significant force at Westminster may well be higher than has so far been appreciated."
One pollster and one poll, early days... although not the same it's worth thinking of the SDP in the 1980s. On the other hand though, and more comparable, look at 1993 in Canada.
One thing we can be sure of, that the Rochester and Strood by-election will be hugely important and the Tories will likely throw the kitchen sink at that approaching by-election.
I also give up trying to include a picture/video with this **** third world internet.
Thoughts?
