Boris "days away" from launching leadership bid as Tories descend into civil war

There has been much speculation over this, with some suggesting he and the ERG will wait until October/November - but the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Tom Watson MP (obviously well connected) suggests that this week will be the week. My own inkling is that it will happen sooner rather than later, as they should understand they cannot leave it too late before Christmas to make a move. It literally - and especially in regards to Boris - has to be now or never.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tom Watson MP Diary

Word has reached me from the Commons' tea room that Boris Johnson is about to go public with a full-frontal leadership bid to topple Theresa May and install himself in Downing Street.

Johnson, enabled by Tory election mastermind and new sidekick Lynton Crosby, has mapped out a timeline to power which will torpedo the PM's Chequers plan for Brexit.

Having scanned the Trump playbook for inspiration (see letterbox attack on Muslim women), Johnson cleared the decks on his personal life after his marriage break-up story appeared in The Sun on Friday.

I am told that Johnson's MP backers are now compiling the requisite 48 names required to send to the backbench 1922 Committee to trigger a no confidence vote in Mrs May. One source even says this will happen on Monday.

Look out for Johnson's Monday column in the Telegraph (invoice £5,000 a time) in which many of his colleagues expect him to fire the gun.

---

Both main parties have completely broken down as viable entities. The only thing holding them together is FPTP and vestiges of tribal loyalty. It's surely not sustainable.

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) September 9, 2018

Don’t underestimate the vitriol that’ll be directed towards Boris today He delivered the leave vote, remainers and wannabe future PMs hate him. If he becomes leader (and PM) he’ll deliver a clean and prosperous #Brexit. They are terrified of his popular appeal #BackBoris #Brexit

— Rt Hon Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) September 9, 2018

This is the guy who flew to Chicago at public expense to tell us that Brexit was a "tantrum" by the "working classes (sic)". Pompous doesn't really do it justice. https://t.co/3idy1hCCyK

— Stewart Jackson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇦 (@BrexitStewart) September 9, 2018

Meanwhile in the ongoing civil war over Brexit, Chequers seems pretty much dead as both Leave and Remain MPs in the party have come out against it. A new group has also emerged, with Nigel Farage and David Davis heading it together - along with a fusion of Tory MPs and Ukip MEPs. The alliance isn't even pretend anymore as CCHQ loses control over every flank of the party.

David Davis' preferred Brexit plan might be resurrected, reports Robert Peston:https://t.co/4ucbImCWwY

— Coffee House (@SpecCoffeeHouse) September 4, 2018

Boris' bet must now be to throw the dice, win a leadership election and resurrect the Canada++ FTA option which was originally May's plan and which the EU has said quite plainly it will agree to. Take it to the Commons in November, and dare it to be voted down in favour of a WTO leave.

Time for some leadership on this, as we now have exactly 201 days to go.

Thoughts?

still waiting for rees mogg to condem his adultery

he won't win

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dbgtz

still waiting for rees mogg to condem his adultery

he won't win

---

If Boris gets on the members ballot he will win. His big problem is getting on the final ballot, he's not as popular amongst the parliamentary party as he is with the grassroots (think Corbyn). That said, if a lot of candidates stand then that would increase his chances of making it.

Our survey. Next Tory Leader. @BorisJohnson stretches his lead at the top of the table. https://t.co/bHNsd5hS6m

— ConservativeHome (@ConHome) September 6, 2018

“Are there more people in the stop Boris camp or help Boris camp?� #newsnight | @katyballs pic.twitter.com/tlGQJrG75F

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) September 7, 2018

The reaction of the Tory establishment towards the prospect of Boris yesterday and today reminds me strongly of the reaction of the Republican establishment towards Trump when he was first running in the primaries. It only helped him. And given Steve Bannon has been over and had discussions with Boris, we could see the same playbook play out in the coming weeks.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

If Boris gets on the members ballot he will win. His big problem is getting on the final ballot, he's not as popular amongst the parliamentary party as he is with the grassroots (think Corbyn). That said, if a lot of candidates stand then that would increase his chances of making it.

---

lol comparing Corbyn to Boris

unrelated but I've noticed you like to use peoples full names a lot like with Tony Blair but you never seemed to call Boris by his... hmm

Quote:

---

Our survey. Next Tory Leader. @BorisJohnson stretches his lead at the top of the table. https://t.co/bHNsd5hS6m

— ConservativeHome (@ConHome) September 6, 2018

“Are there more people in the stop Boris camp or help Boris camp?� #newsnight | @katyballs pic.twitter.com/tlGQJrG75F

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) September 7, 2018

The reaction of the Tory establishment towards the prospect of Boris yesterday and today reminds me strongly of the reaction of the Republican establishment towards Trump when he was first running in the primaries. It only helped him. And given Steve Bannon has been over and had discussions with Boris, we could see the same playbook play out in the coming weeks.

---

The difference between Trump and Boris is their political history.

besides we had a tory leadership election in 2016 and there was a clear majority, stop undermining the will of the people
:)

I can see him being the next PM but part of me is wondering is he really gonna want to do it NOW? Because let’s be honest, whatever kind of Brexit we get, the sitting PM is going to be blamed for it and get a lot of negativity. I always thought May would bow out in May and trigger a leadership election then.

@lawrawrrr;

I read this morning that they're split over what to do. Half of them want to get out of the EU first and then replace the PM and with her replace her Chequers plan during the transition period, the other half want to remove her and her plan right now. Some are calculating that they don't want to risk a constitutional crisis and the potential loss of Brexit until we're out of the exit door.

I'm pretty relaxed because at the end of the day once we've passed 29th March 2019 we can always change the future relationship via treaty.


As of today also, only 200 days to go until we leave.

Storm clouds still surround the Prime Minister...

Tory Brexiters of the European Research Group have tonight been openly plotting a coup against @theresa_may https://t.co/3cg1dCXt5t

— Robert Peston (@Peston) September 11, 2018

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Robert Peston

I am just going to let this speak for itself. It’s a slightly edited but verbatim account of tonight’s weekly meeting of the Brexiter European Research Group faction of the Conservative Party.

It requires no additional comment from me - other than that I have multiple sources vouching for its veracity.

“We've just had an ERG mass meeting, 50 odd MPs present, where virtually the only topic of conversation for 40/50 mins was: how best do we get rid of her? What's the best way to use our letters?

Comments included: ‘Everyone I know says she has to go’, ‘she's a disaster’, ‘this can't go on’.

You might think that this is usual far for us, but it's not! Not in the mass weekly meeting, never in what's basically a public forum.

The truly amazing thing was they spoke about it so openly, in such an unabashed way, even though they could see the Whips sneak sitting there.

Really, really detailed discussion of the mechanics of how best you game the leadership election rules. And zero dissent.

No one, in a room of fifty Tory MPs even raised a squeak of objection. Not even a murmured pretence as good form. Nor did anyone preface their remarks with any 'sadly I've concluded formulae'.

We were in the Thatcher Room to add piquancy”.

And here’s more:

“It was truly mind blowing. You felt the ground opening up under your feet. The most amazing thing was that no one even bothered to mime a pretence of regret”.

---

Sounds to me like this is an ultimatum to the PM tonight.

NEW: @ABridgen tells us that Gavin Barwell has promised to give Theresa May a "full appraisal" of what MPs thought of her after tonight's dinner (she hasn't been present). Asked if there'll be a coup, he says "wait and see." pic.twitter.com/IxLJyqYf7y

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) September 11, 2018

BREAKING: Tonight's Downing St dinner has proven perilous for the PM. John Baron leaves telling us:
"We were discussing leadership issues."
"Which leadership issues?"
"You guess!"
Other MPs dropping major hints to us they've told the PM to chuck Chequers or they'll chuck her. pic.twitter.com/znHxOzlnYe

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) September 11, 2018

https://media1.tenor.com/images/5677...itemid=8688468

Fantastic by JHB tonight on QT, especially at the end.

MUST WATCH | Fantastic defence of Brexit from @JuliaHB1 on #BBCQT: "There isn't a majority in the House of Commons - I don't care! They asked us the question, we gave the answer and we want the Brexit that we were promised. If Theresa May can't deliver it, she should go!" ��� pic.twitter.com/fpnVRfBXU1

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) September 13, 2018

UK, Survation poll:

Preferred Brexit deal:

"Canada style": 36%
No Deal: 19%
Customs Union: 19%
"Norway style": 15%
Chequers Agreement: 9%

Field work: 07/09/18
Sample size: 1,039

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 12, 2018

Chequers needs to be dumped and we need a CETA aka Canadia++ FTA.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...xit%201-01.jpg

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...ould-you-vote/

So practically no movement still then and within the MoE.

Bit of Brexit bantz couple of days ago.

I kept my promise to @JunckerEU and gave him a pair of Union Jack socks! 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/nsxxW1XfyP

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) September 12, 2018

10% difference = margin of error
<4% = clear will of the people?

dont half cherry pick do you

There's not 10% difference in the graph you posted let alone in all the polling on this. Indeed, the latest two Survation polls had it at 50-50 and 51-49.

In any case, we've had the referendum. Try again in 43 years like we had to.

granted it's not 10%, slight exaggeration, but still larger than the difference in the result
don't claim margin of error for one thing but not another

Has Boris launched yet it has definitely been days

I love this vote again "People's Vote" campaign - what was the last vote then, a non-person vote?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dbgtz

granted it's not 10%, slight exaggeration, but still larger than the difference in the result
don't claim margin of error for one thing but not another

---

The MoE is 3% and much of the post-referendum polling has been in that range.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...rendum_polling

I learn May loyalist Mike Penning savages Chequers plan in @telegraph interview, saying he will not be "blackmailed" into backing plan that betrays Brexit voters & cannot vote for it. Similar attack to that of Remainer @JustineGreening. May more and more isolated in her own party

— Robert Peston (@Peston) September 19, 2018

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

I love this vote again "People's Vote" campaign - what was the last vote then, a non-person vote?

---

it's not a vote again if it's a different vote but ok
probably best not you criticise that given the whole will of the people shit but ok

Quote:

---

The MoE is 3% and much of the post-referendum polling has been in that range.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...rendum_polling

I learn May loyalist Mike Penning savages Chequers plan in @telegraph interview, saying he will not be "blackmailed" into backing plan that betrays Brexit voters & cannot vote for it. Similar attack to that of Remainer @JustineGreening. May more and more isolated in her own party

— Robert Peston (@Peston) September 19, 2018

---

just for clarity, margin of error isn't a fixed number and is worth looking at the actual report rather than assuming

it's also a bit silly to just look solely at one poll and assume it's an error and it is better to look at general trends, as in that wikipedia it's pretty clear for in favour of remaining for about a year now (on the yougov polls)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dbgtz

it's not a vote again if it's a different vote but ok

---

Well that depends on the referendum option. If, unlike the "Peoples Vote", the referendum was on No Deal (WTO) vs Chequers Deal, then yes it wouldn't be a re-run of the original vote. But if it's a re-run of Remain vs Leave as they want, then it is the typical EU response to any democratic vote of making people vote again. Only yesterday in the Salzburg summit did we have the Czech and Maltese PMs telling us to vote again - how DARE they.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dbgtz

probably best not you criticise that given the whole will of the people shit but ok

---

"Will of the people shit"

Otherwise known as democracy.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dgbtz

just for clarity, margin of error isn't a fixed number and is worth looking at the actual report rather than assuming

it's also a bit silly to just look solely at one poll and assume it's an error and it is better to look at general trends, as in that wikipedia it's pretty clear for in favour of remaining for about a year now (on the yougov polls)

---

In standard 1,000 polls the MoE is 3.1% or something.

And in favour of remaining... just like the polls before the referendum!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

Well that depends on the referendum option. If, unlike the "Peoples Vote", the referendum was on No Deal (WTO) vs Chequers Deal, then yes it wouldn't be a re-run of the original vote. But if it's a re-run of Remain vs Leave as they want, then it is the typical EU response to any democratic vote of making people vote again. Only yesterday in the Salzburg summit did we have the Czech and Maltese PMs telling us to vote again - how DARE they.

---

Remain should be an option, but I will agree it shouldn't just be remain vs leave should it happen.
Equally chequers should not be an option as it is unworkable.

Quote:

---

"Will of the people shit"

Otherwise known as democracy.

---

Except you know it's misleading as a) trends are favouring remain and b) those 52% voted to leave, but did not vote on what leave meant

Quote:

---

In standard 1,000 polls the MoE is 3.1% or something.

And in favour of remaining... just like the polls before the referendum!

---

most polls seem to be more mid 1k which would mean a moe <3%
also pretty silly to look at pre and post referendum given the different circumstances

Well, Chequers is dead tonight after the summit with the PM left looking like an utter fool.

Ironically, the EU and the Brexiteers are now in full agreement with one another. That Britain should fully leave, and conclude a Canada++ FTA with the EU following a transition. It's only Number 10 who think otherwise - and Olly Robbens aka Grima Wormtongue in the Civil Service.

#Salzburg latest

PM: it’s my Chequers Deal or No Deal
Tusk: EU27 agree Chequers “will not work�
Dutch PM: Netherlands is more prepared than UK for No Deal
French PRes: UK politicos who sold Brexit are “liars�

The hills are indeed alive...

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) September 20, 2018

Post Tusk mauling, @DavidDavisMP tells PM to now dump Chequers for Canada. Tells me: "Now is the time for the Prime Minister to reset the negotiation and take Tusk's March offer of a free trade plus deal".

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 20, 2018

Theresa May doesn't have the political room to go Norway even if she wanted to. So, if the EU won't bite on Chequers, then she is going to be pushed back towards Canada

— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) September 20, 2018

That was an extraordinary press conference from May. In the room we could see she was visibly angry and shaking through out it #EUCO

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 20, 2018

Break: May suggests for first time she will abandon Chequers - but only if EU make their own proposal for frictionless goods trade.

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 20, 2018

I've always thought that there would come a time when we'd have to consider walking away from the Brexit talks. Everyone surely has a bottom line and we've just reached it. I've thought in recent weeks that a deal is 85% likely. Not now.

— Iain Dale ðŸ�´ó �§ó �¢ó �¥ó �®ó �§ó �¿ðŸ‡¬ðŸ‡§âš’ï¸� (@IainDale) September 20, 2018

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dbgtz

Remain should be an option, but I will agree it shouldn't just be remain vs leave should it happen.
Equally chequers should not be an option as it is unworkable.

---

Let's say though in this continuity-remainer world, that they do make us vote again. What do you think is going to happen? Seriously now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dbgtz

Except you know it's misleading as a) trends are favouring remain and b) those 52% voted to leave, but did not vote on what leave meant

---

People didn't know what Leave meant?

And Remain sit there, stupidly scratching their heads, wondering why they did not win.

Something is up it seems this afternoon.

Something is definitely brewing ... https://t.co/q5lZErQbS8

— Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) September 21, 2018

Now feels like that PM not saying anything "this morning" was very literal...stand by. 🚨 https://t.co/wqgssrM5fh

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) September 21, 2018

Latest rumour is a May statement at 1.45pm. Full lectern job. Let's see.

— Francis Elliott (@elliottengage) September 21, 2018

Last time she did this we had a General Election...

General Election? Resignation? No Deal?