Brexit Deal (yes, really)

Ahem. This is actually the endgame now, after the false dawn earlier this autumn.

The deal agreed by the UK and EU has been leaked and it looks really bad. Essentially, the UK would be trapped into a 'temporary' Custom Union that we couldn't leave without EU say so - which it will never give because it does not want a competitive rival on its doorstep. Added to that, Northern Ireland will be subject to Single Market rules - giving Dublin and Brussels more of a say over some laws in Northern Ireland than London or Belfast. So trapping us in a Customs Union and still subject to EU law - for the price of £45bn.

The good news in all this is that at the moment she doesn't have the numbers to get this through Parliament. The Tory ERG (40 hardcore), the DUP (10), Tory remainers (10 to 20) and Scottish Tories (10ish) are all going to vote it down. Labour will whip its MPs to vote against, the eurosceptic Labour rebels like Kate Hoey MP are also saying they will vote against.

So, we’re off. Cabinet to be invited to approve draft EU withdrawal agreement - one to one meetings tonight & full Cabinet tomorrow. If the Leavers who’ve been threatening to quit are going to do it it’s now or never.

— Nick Robinson (@bbcnickrobinson) November 13, 2018

Breaking: Cabinet ministers are being called into No10 to see the PM one by one tonight ahead of full Cabinet meeting tomorrow to sign off Brexit divorce deal. Endgame is beginning.

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) November 13, 2018

Theresa May’s Brexit agreement is the worst deal in history.

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) November 13, 2018

🚨 Jacob Rees-Mogg: If true this fails to meet the Conservative party's manifesto and the commitments the PM has made. This is the vassal state, it is a failure of the negotiations, it is a failure to deliver on Brexit, it divides up the UK. Cabinet should not support it.

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) November 13, 2018

Dear Cabinet Ministers,

Please show some backbone and do the right thing tonight. Refuse to accept this sham of a deal and deliver the Brexit 17.4 million voted for in a democratic referendum.

Yours,
A Leave voter

— Julia Hartley-Brewer (@JuliaHB1) November 13, 2018

Tonight the DUP have made clear they are all but certain to vote it down, with the test being whether there are any new GB-NI checks at all. Parliamentary numbers for May looking very bad now.

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 13, 2018

Boris Johnson says 'it is a quite incredible' situation, and 'it is unacceptable' to this Parliament 'we will not have protected our precious union'

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 13, 2018

NEW Nigel Dodds , the DUP’s Westminster leader, is absolutely furious: "Our laws will be made in Brussels –not in Westminster or Belfast. That is the fundamental red line.� #Brexit

— Christopher HopeðŸ“� (@christopherhope) November 13, 2018

Thanks to Theresa May I think my journey from moderate who expected to vote Remain to hardline Eurosceptic is now complete.

— Nick Hoile (@Nick_Hoile) November 14, 2018

Am told Graham Brady has just been spotted going into Cabinet Office - unconfirmed. For those that don't know, it is a handy back way of getting into No. 10.

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) November 14, 2018

Just before Cabinet started, letter from Scottish Tory MPs, including Sec of State, hand delivered to No 10 warning against any backsliding on fishing rights - PM simply can't afford to lose those 13 votes

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 14, 2018

WATCH: Peter Bone Savages Theresa May https://t.co/2F2cGKIjL9 pic.twitter.com/4s5nthok92

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) November 14, 2018

The PM MUST be removed ASAP.

No Cabinet resignations as of yet.

Tory Brexiters become angrier and angrier as they wade through 585 pages of the Withdrawal Agreement. “This is a worse capitulation than we feared� said one. They tell me there will be enough letters in with Brady of ‘22 C’ttee by lunch tomorrow to force vote of confidence!

— Robert Peston (@Peston) November 14, 2018

The fact that free movement will end but most Brexiteers oppose this deal is strong evidence that, contra Remainer claims, the Brexit vote was much more about sovereignty than immigration. May has never understood that.

— Ryan Bourne (@MrRBourne) November 14, 2018

I love a bit of the good 'ol anarchy.

The resignations, and surely the end of the May Ministry, have started.

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has resigned saying he "cannot in good conscience support" draft Brexit agreement https://t.co/3HMdos3mLE

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) November 15, 2018

Shailesh Vara says he has resigned as Northern Ireland minister because he "cannot support the withdrawal agreement that has been agreed with the European Union"

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) November 15, 2018

The amount of lies she has told from her Lancaster House speech/the manifesto to this slave-state Treaty rivals Tony Blair.

Literally thought this morning: let the resignations commence!

Dominic Raab is not a surprise.. at all.

And another.

BREAKING: Esther McVey has resigned as work and pensions secretary.

Second cabinet minister quits after Brexit secretary Dominic Raab.

Latest on the fallout here: https://t.co/ifbeC7zDZx pic.twitter.com/8iHMy9NiGR

— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 15, 2018

Downing Street's Director of Legislative Affairs (who would be incharge of co-ordinating Brexit laws through Parliament) has also resigned.

Another two ministerial resignations just now.

It is with deep regret and after reflection that I have had to tender my resignation today as a Brexit Minister. Thank you for the opportunity. I look forward to working to support Brexit from the Backbenches. This has not been an easy decision. pic.twitter.com/C0kply8aLE

— Suella Braverman (@SuellaBraverman) November 15, 2018

Yet another resignation.

BREAKING Sixth resignation from Government in five hours (four ministers, two ministerial aides). Ranil Jayawardena resigns as PPS at the Ministry of Justice tells Theresa May: ""This is not taking back control".

— Christopher HopeðŸ“� (@christopherhope) November 15, 2018

Rumours that Mogg's signalling an hour ago in Commons chamber has just triggered the Vote of Confidence.

Sounds to me like a confidence vote already on. Whips informally sounding out MPs on which way they would vote.... 🚨

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) November 15, 2018

Problem is Nigel Farage painted a fairytail which was never possible. He raised expectations and mis-led the naive British public. Then Boris and co jumped on this bandwagon.

they already chose May how dare they get to choose again

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Saurav

Problem is Nigel Farage painted a fairytail which was never possible. He raised expectations and mis-led the naive British public. Then Boris and co jumped on this bandwagon.

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But how is it not possible? We're not actually asking for much when you examine it: merely our pre-1973 constitutional status that we've had since The Reformation and that Australia, Canada, New Zealand and countless others have today in 2018. The idea that all countries located in Europe geographically, must be tied to this bizzare proto-state is a very strange (and outdated) idea. Reminds me of the German Confederation struggle in regards to Prussia and Austria. The revolutionary act is not Brexit, but European integration which seeks to overcome/subdue international constitutional and geopolitical norms.

Interesting you mention Farage, this picture was from last night. Plotting...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsIBRkMX4AAm15A.jpg

undertaker I don't really think you're in a place to call anything outdated since you seem to be keen to align modern UK foreign policy to historical UK foreign policy on the basis that "it was like that"
and to be honest the idea of the EU is the opposite of outdated, it's pretty reactionary to the rise of larger states (US/Russia/China/India)
it's also just one of the worst arguments you could make for near anything

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

undertaker I don't really think you're in a place to call anything outdated since you seem to be keen to align modern UK foreign policy to historical UK foreign policy on the basis that "it was like that"

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Because it is still "like that".

On the continent ever since German unification, Germany and Russia have been the two main continental land powers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

and to be honest the idea of the EU is the opposite of outdated, it's pretty reactionary to the rise of larger states (US/Russia/China/India)
it's also just one of the worst arguments you could make for near anything

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The EU is the opposite of outdated, really?

WATCH | Huge! Angela Merkel echoes Macron and Juncker's call for a "real, true European army" in her address to the European Parliament. Huge applause. These Euro-fanatics are dead serious about this European "Empire".

Remainers, did you vote for this?https://t.co/iICfFb8qqg pic.twitter.com/B2clJ4jqI2

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) November 13, 2018

Seems to me Europe still has the same (usually French or German) lunatics calling for state/army building hundreds of years later.

Why does a trade bloc require an army? lego_hmm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

Because it is still "like that".

On the continent ever since German unification, Germany and Russia have been the two main continental land powers.

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And somehow Russia, who killed British civilians on British soil in peace time, is more of an ally? Not really sure in your logic ignoring France either.

Quote:

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The EU is the opposite of outdated, really?

WATCH | Huge! Angela Merkel echoes Macron and Juncker's call for a "real, true European army" in her address to the European Parliament. Huge applause. These Euro-fanatics are dead serious about this European "Empire".

Remainers, did you vote for this?https://t.co/iICfFb8qqg pic.twitter.com/B2clJ4jqI2

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) November 13, 2018

Seems to me Europe still has the same (usually French or German) lunatics calling for state/army building hundreds of years later.

Why does a trade bloc require an army? lego_hmm

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what's that got to do with things being outdated, are you referring to colonialism there??
time alone doesn't make something outdated and the speech was pretty much a reaction to Trump being Trump (nice of him to miss the ww1 service because of a bit of rain)
also how does being out of the EU prevent this exactly..? oh but being in means we'd be forced to sign up! oh except in the case of the euro, schengen and a whole bunch of other opt outs we have

but again, you're really in no position to criticise people for being outdated when you yourself are hung up on what was

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

And somehow Russia, who killed British civilians on British soil in peace time, is more of an ally? Not really sure in your logic ignoring France either.

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For some reason you seem to believe I believe Russia is a friendly ally. It isn't our ally or friend, it simply shares broadly the same worries about power in Europe in regards to Germany as Britain does. Our foreign policy objectives happen to align - as they say, countries don't have friends, they have interests.

And as for France, France has long fretted over what to do in regards to Germany, and since the war it has decided to co-opt Germany in an attempt to control it or guide it. The French President at the time of the fall of the Berlin Wall threatened to veto German reunification unless Germany agreed to monetary union - which is the price it paid with Maastricht few years later.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

what's that got to do with things being outdated, are you referring to colonialism there??
time alone doesn't make something outdated and the speech was pretty much a reaction to Trump being Trump (nice of him to miss the ww1 service because of a bit of rain)

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So you have no problem with the German Chancellor calling for a superstate army? Far from being a throwaway comment, I would argue it is of upmost importance. I imagine it would be very hard to be in your position, on the one hand your side constantly tells the British people that we have nothing to fear from European integration and that 'ever closer union' is simply window-dressing phrase in a treaty over 50 years old, as time after time the important players in the project continue to undermine what you are saying openly.

I mean, just look at this gem from the former Belgian PM to which the whole chamber applauded.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

also how does being out of the EU prevent this exactly..? oh but being in means we'd be forced to sign up! oh except in the case of the euro, schengen and a whole bunch of other opt outs we have

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It prevents Britain being a part of this crazed project. And as for the veto argument, this always makes me laugh - your side constantly claim that Britain is the "awkward partner" yet you tell us to stay in and spend our time, money and effort vetoing what the other member states want. Why should Britain have to embroil itself in crazy European affairs? The last two times look what happened.

I say let them get on with it, "spendid isolation" as the Victorian era policy advocated.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

but again, you're really in no position to criticise people for being outdated when you yourself are hung up on what was

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I take the long view of history - the players may change, but the power dynamics remain the same as 100 years ago.

Presumably, despite whatever you're fighting about right now, we can all agree that (whether you want it to be tighter or freer) May's plan is shit. Like totally shit. I mean it's kind of impressive that no-one on either side of the overall Brexit debate thinks this is good

Absolutely no shifting of opinion either.

UK, ComRes poll:

EU membership ref.

Remain: 51% (-4)
Leave: 49% (+4)

+/- vs. 11 Jan. '18

Field work: 14/11/18 – 15/11/18
Sample size: 1,752

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) November 17, 2018

While the Tories drop following her agreement...

Westminster voting intentiomn:

LAB: 39% (+2)
CON: 36% (-5)
UKIP: 8% (+2)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-)

via @OpiniumReseach, 14 Nov
Chgs. w/ 11 Oct

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 17, 2018

@FlyingJesus;

I'm frankly appalled. I really did believe her Lancaster House speech and the manifesto. What a fool I was.

Still, I am not totally disappointed. To me, the trajectory from this point onwards will be separation much as the trajectory when we joined was inevitably towards ever closer union. But a slower approach will waste years, if not a decade or two, when we could simply get this process over and done with now. No Deal is now preferable, with a series of 'mini' agreements covering the basics before March 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO_Fg6R0i5w

The Political Declaration came out today and the deal got *even worse*. It's simply staggering that she has surrendered like this.

Scots Tory MPs letter to PM on 14/11 says specifically that “access and quota shares cannot be included in the Future Economic Partnership�. Political Declaration now agreed shows they have been. The 13 therefore cant support May’s #Brexit deal ( including @DavidMundellDCT ) pic.twitter.com/KpqFQ1oM9a

— Michael Russell (@Feorlean) November 22, 2018

There is no other country in the WORLD which demands access to another country's fishing waters as part of a trade deal, nor is there a country in the world which signs up and copies another's laws across the economy in order to trade. It's an absolute scandal.

Meanwhile before this declaration the number of Tory MPs alone saying they will not vote for this agreement reached 85.

More and more convinced with each announcement that her real plan is to actually force this "people's vote" aka referendum 2 electric boogaloo, in full knowledge that the total of remainers plus leavers who hate this deal will mean no Brexit at all in the end

@FlyingJesus;

You have to wonder. I hope they're ready for what will come if that conspiracy is in any way, shape or form true.

NEW: By my count this now means over 50% of Tory backbenchers have publicly indicated they will not vote for the deal 🚨 https://t.co/LjeczpfPxX

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) November 22, 2018

Even more Tory MPs saying publicly they will vote against.

VERY SIGNIFICANT
I just asked PM's official spksman: Is it fair to assume that as long as Theresa May is PM there will be no second Brexit referendum?
Clear answer "Yes".
May herself sidestepped this when i asked last week.

— Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) November 22, 2018

I'd like to believe this... but can we trust a word she says anymore?

It's really the only reason I can think of (other than maybe being bribed with personal allowances which would be WORSE) for her making deals that get shittier and shittier as they go. There's no way she can actually believe that these are good plans, she's not dumb

This is a good discussion on where next.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGsvoLkDuG8

At the moment over 400 MPs are on record as saying they'll vote down this deal.

The PM was savaged by MPs on all sides today in the Commons, as the US President says it's a good deal - for the EU!

WATCH | "It seems like a great deal - for the EU!" - @realDonaldTrump hits the nail on the head. May's deal hands everything over to Brussels & stops us from doing a huge trade deal with the world's biggest economy. What a sick joke!

Support us at https://t.co/ntwXbJeHQw pic.twitter.com/wLtWA58I2P

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) November 26, 2018

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

This is a good discussion on where next.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGsvoLkDuG8

At the moment over 400 MPs are on record as saying they'll vote down this deal.

The PM was savaged by MPs on all sides today in the Commons, as the US President says it's a good deal - for the EU!

WATCH | "It seems like a great deal - for the EU!" - @realDonaldTrump hits the nail on the head. May's deal hands everything over to Brussels & stops us from doing a huge trade deal with the world's biggest economy. What a sick joke!

Support us at https://t.co/ntwXbJeHQw pic.twitter.com/wLtWA58I2P

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) November 26, 2018

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The US president can't name all the states of his own country.

@Saurav;

Can you name all the counties of the United Kingdom?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

@Saurav;

Can you name all the counties of the United Kingdom?

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Your question is no where near the same as to asking someone to name all the states of a country. I am very surprised to see such a silly response from you.

So keeping in mind that Remoan has been campaigning for the last two years non-stop and now HM Government is getting the Bank of England, the Chancellor and the machinery of government to come out and campaign against No Deal, this poll tonight is hilarious.

UK, Deltapoll poll:

EU membership referendum

Remain: 48% (-2)
Leave without deal: 52% (+2)

+/- with regular Leave/Remain question, end of October 2018

Field work: 26/11/18 – 27/11/18
Sample size: 1,013#Brexit

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) November 29, 2018

It's almost like after being fed BS scare stories last time, the British aren't falling for it again.

You have to think, given how Leave closed the gap last time and say they did make us vote again - think of the anger and backlash about how undemocratic that really is - it really wouldn't surprise me if Leave ended up with 60%+. Many Remainers have said this privately too.

maybe you should read what they actually said and see the results in full
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet

@dbgtz;

Fully aware of the charts floating around Twitter.

Remain loses against both forms of Leave: No Deal and May's Deal.

UK, Deltapoll poll:

EU membership referendum

Scenario: Remain or leave with May deal

Leave with May deal: 56%
Remain: 44%

Field work: 26/11/18 – 27/11/18
Sample size: 1,013

Correction of previous post#Brexit #BrexitDebate #BrexitDeal

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) November 29, 2018

Tim Martin on fire on BBC QT tonight too.

You have to ask how would Remain fight against such a campaign? On top of £350m a week, we now have £39bn.

This week we've had scare stories about clean drinking water and no Mars Bars. More laughable than last time! :')

WATCH | 'Spoons boss Tim Martin on why Britain will be "better off on Day One without a deal."

✅ Save £39bn
✅ Take back control of our waters
✅ Eliminate tariffs on 12,000 products

What's not to like? #BBCQT

🙋*♂� Support us at https://t.co/iICfFb8qqg pic.twitter.com/aESjMJ1PO9

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) November 29, 2018

Theresa May doesn’t have the numbers to get her deal through Parliament.

Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t have the numbers to force an election.

Remainers don’t have the numbers for a referendum.

That means the only options left are renegotiate, or no-deal. Everything else is a sideshow.

— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) November 29, 2018

Universities and Science Minister resigns tonight over the Deal.

Sam Gyimah quits Government over Brexit, branding PM's plan "naive": https://t.co/2fw9xdJUeJ

— Kate McCann (@KateEMcCann) November 30, 2018

At the moment it is looking like the government will lose by 200 votes+

Quote:

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Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

@dbgtz;

Fully aware of the charts floating around Twitter.

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I said read what they said not look at the pretty graphs

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

I said read what they said not look at the pretty graphs

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Have done, and the polling looks great for Leave. And what anyway? The fact is, there aren't the numbers in Parliament for making us all vote again. And you know what, if they do, are they really sure they want to unleash what doing that would entail?

Prime Minister Theresa May has confirmed the UK will not use the EU's 'Galileo' satellite system for defence of critical infrastructure after Brexit and the UK will explore its own alternatives

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) November 30, 2018

Meanwhile our wonderful partners continue to show such great co-operation, despite the fact we paid for a % of Galileo.

A sign of things to come if we don't just walk away. Let's save £39bn and be completely free from March 29th 2019 of it all. #NoDealDoneDeal

Important to note.

I said at the start of this process, contrary to many of my fellow Leavers, that the A50 process could work in our favour.

Brexit is 119 days away. #brexit

— Brexit Countdown (@brexitcountdow1) November 30, 2018