Early 2016 poll: Rand Paul holds big lead in Iowa (Paul v Clinton in 2016?)

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://dailycaller.com/2013/05/06/ea...-lead-in-iowa/

Early 2016 poll: Rand Paul holds lead over other frontrunners

In an early poll conducted in Iowa, the state that holds the first presidential nominating caucus in the country, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul far outpaced his potential Republican presidential opponents.

A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster McKeon & Associates for Freedom to Choose PAC, a pro-gun group, found Paul with an early lead over other possible presidential contenders.

The poll, provided to The Daily Caller, surveyed 804 registered Iowa voters using phone interviews. 328 usually participated in the Republican presidential caucuses, and 247 said they usually participated in the Democratic caucuses. The poll was conducted on April 18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Among voters who said they usually took part in the Republican presidential caucuses, 39 percent said they would vote for Paul if the caucuses were held today. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was in a distant second place with 20 percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was at 11 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was at 10 percent, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal was tied with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at three percent.

Paul’s lead was buoyed by his strong support among independent voters, who said they usually attend the Republican caucuses. Sixty-seven percent said they would support Paul. The other 33 percent said they would support Christie.

Among self-identified Republicans, Rubio and Paul ran close, with Rubio getting the support 24 percent and Paul getting the support of 30 percent. Christie’s share of the vote fell to four percent among such voters.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held a commanding lead with 43 percent of the vote. Twenty-seven percent said they would support Vice President Joe Biden, and 11 percent would vote for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Nine percent said they would support another candidate.

Asked about the Senate’s recent vote on background checks, 52 percent said they agreed with the Senate’s rejection of the proposal, while 46 percent said they disagreed.

Unlike Ron Paul, Rand has a good following in the Republican Party (whereas they viewed the older Paul as on the fringe, a bit of a kook) and so far it's looking good via the betting odds and other polls I have seen - in the GOP the race seems very much like its going to be between Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan.

On the Democratic side (as of course Obama cannot stand for another term) it's looking more or less like Hiliary Clinton will have it in the bag if she decides to stand. So interesting times that in 2016 it could very well be Clinton vs Paul, although it's early days yet.

Thoughts?

[HotelUser]

It's looking more and more to me like he will be a contender, especially now that it's (semi) clear that Jeb Bush wont be running (well-- that's according to his own mother, anyway!). I don't know who else is interested in 2016, Gingrich will probably be back, hopefully Santorum stays the heck away from it. I wouldn't mind putting up with Rick Perry throughout the early GOP debates if he pushes out some cool advertisements like this one .

Clinton for the Democrats? Sure, I think she's interested and a viable candidate however I thought Biden would be going for it too. I would love to see Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton up against each other in a debate.

[Grig]

Absolutely, and this rise was in the last few months, which is also great news. Maybe him stalling congress for a long time helped.

He is much more accepted in the Republican Party than his father, but still shares many of his father's values, which is why I'm hoping that the 2016 will be quite interesting. I think it's more than certain that Clinton will chip her hat in. She will win Biden and will be the outright favourite to win. However, an early favourite can be dangerous, as we saw in 2008.

Things change and I would recommend these pollsters go on holiday for a year and come back in 2014, we've just finished finished this election cycle and there's groundless speculation over the next already.