Polling: European Elections, Scottish independence referendum & Eastleigh 2015

[-:Undertaker:-]

A few polls that may be of interest came out last night....

European National Elections (May 2014): Neck and neck between Labour and Ukip

ICM European elections poll for Sunday Telegraph has...

LAB 30%
UKIP 27%
CON 22%
LDEM 8%

Scottish Independence Referendum (September 2014): Gap between Yes and No continues to close

Eastleigh constituency General Election (May 2015): Ukip would take the seat

New Survation MoS GE2015 poll of Eastleigh has UKIP in lead - the 1st time in any Westminster seat

UKIP 32% (+4 on 2013 by-election)
CON 28% (+3 on 2013 by-election)
LDEM 27% (-5 on 2013 by-election)
LAB 12% (+2 on 2013 by-election)

...I have to say, the Scottish referendum is starting to worry me.

Thoughts?

[Ardemax]

Scotland won't vote for independence. I'm sure the Scottish majority will be for union closer to the time of the referendum.

[Kardan]

Those Scottish referendum numbers seem to show absolutely no pattern at all, which is slightly worrying, because that suggests people really don't know what to think.

[GommeInc]

Those Scottish referendum numbers seem to show absolutely no pattern at all, which is slightly worrying, because that suggests people really don't know what to think.

Does seem that way. Any programmes about it are starting to use a different language. At first discussions were done jokingly, but now it seems like it is being taken more seriously.

[Mark]

Definitely worrying figures for independence. Living in Scotland it does seem as if YesScotland are gaining a lot of ground locally whereas BetterTogether seem to be doing very little, at least from what I can see. During my summer break I'm going to go out campaigning with BetterTogether as going independent worries me profusely.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Definitely worrying figures for independence. Living in Scotland it does seem as if YesScotland are gaining a lot of ground locally whereas BetterTogether seem to be doing very little, at least from what I can see. During my summer break I'm going to go out campaigning with BetterTogether as going independent worries me profusely.

BetterTogether have really put their foot in it, from what I have read that BetterTogether have been putting out - most of it is untrue and pure scaremongering literally telling the Scots that if they vote for independence then their economy will collapse the following morning. The problem with trying to scare people into supporting the Union is that once people begin to see through it, the entire campaign platform falls apart as it's based on nothing solid. At least the Yes Campaign (which I do not support) have put forward a confident argument.

But yes, the polls will likely close as the day gets nearer... and the worrying thing is that the Yes Campaign will have an advantage in that their supporters will be more likely to turn out as they're more motivated. And that's something that could tip it.

The Quebec 1995 referendum went like this, and it was so damned close: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995

[LiquidLuck.]

Wow those numbers are close.. I guess this means I should start looking for a new unversity..

[Southe,]

Scotland won't vote for independence. I'm sure the Scottish majority will be for union closer to the time of the referendum.

Wouldn't count on that, the more people see through the scaremongering from "Project Fear" there more i see people changing to undecided or even better, Yes.

Those Scottish referendum numbers seem to show absolutely no pattern at all, which is slightly worrying, because that suggests people really don't know what to think.

Poll's are meaningless and that's why i won't acknowledge them regarding the vote. An example i used to someone.
If you took a vote outside a pub that is full of Football A Team fans and asked them if Football Team A or Team B were better what do you think the results would be? Ignore all polls and you will see the % on the day will be different.

Does seem that way. Any programmes about it are starting to use a different language. At first discussions were done jokingly, but now it seems like it is being taken more seriously.

Definitely worrying figures for independence. Living in Scotland it does seem as if YesScotland are gaining a lot of ground locally whereas BetterTogether seem to be doing very little, at least from what I can see. During my summer break I'm going to go out campaigning with BetterTogether as going independent worries me profusely.

Why does it worry you profusely? A no vote worries me profusely.

Just a couple things

http://wingsoverscotland.com/barely-worth-the-bother/

Now, in response to a Freedom of Information request, the Treasury says it has no record of when Macpherson first warned Osborne against a currency union before the February 11 memo, raising further questions about its credibility.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politi...memos.23890582

[-:Undertaker:-]

Poll's are meaningless and that's why i won't acknowledge them regarding the vote. An example i used to someone.
If you took a vote outside a pub that is full of Football A Team fans and asked them if Football Team A or Team B were better what do you think the results would be? Ignore all polls and you will see the % on the day will be different.

That's why all scientific/professional polls are done using weighting which takes into considerations over demographics/likely to vote etc. The polling just because it has you behind shouldn't have you as a Scottish nationalist dismiss it anyway - a gap of 10% or so compared with what the gap was a year ago (and we've still got to go the entire summer until September) should, if anything, give you hope.

You are behind in the polling, but it's not at all impossible for your side to win. Polls usually narrow nearer the time anyway.

Now, in response to a Freedom of Information request, the Treasury says it has no record of when Macpherson first warned Osborne against a currency union before the February 11 memo, raising further questions about its credibility.

However the British Government says it doesn't want a currency union, the fact of the matter is that if we don't want a currency union with an independent Kingdom of Scotland then we don't have to enter into one. The United Kingdom will be the successor state, not Scotland.

The same applies for membership of international bodies (UN Security Council), debt, defence agreements, trade agreements and so on.

[Southe,]

That's why all scientific/professional polls are done using weighting which takes into considerations over demographics/likely to vote etc. The polling just because it has you behind shouldn't have you as a Scottish nationalist dismiss it anyway - a gap of 10% or so compared with what the gap was a year ago (and we've still got to go the entire summer until September) should, if anything, give you hope.

You are behind in the polling, but it's not at all impossible for your side to win. Polls usually narrow nearer the time anyway.

I wouldn't acknowledge a poll even if it had Yes in the lead, i don't need hope. I'm 95% positive that Yes will win, every time B2G speaks the more i see people talking a step back and reconsidering there stance. All the lies and scaremongering, the fact Cameron says he won't debate with Salmond and in my view B2G have not laid out a positive plan on why people should say no, it's always piggybacking off what Yes say and telling them No.