Survation Poll: Ukip surge nationally to 23%

[-:Undertaker:-]

Ukip Surge to 23 Percent in Latest Poll

A Survation poll has put Ukip support at the next general election on 23 percent, a mere seven points behind the Conservatives, and just eleven behind the Labour Party. The poll was conducted online on Friday on behalf of the Daily Mail to ascertain the popular response to the results of the Scottish referendum on independence, which was held last Thursday.

In response to the question “If there was a General Election taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?” 198 people identified Ukip as their party of choice. Meanwhile just 7 percent opted for the Liberal Democrats, who are currently Britain’s third party by number of Westminster seats.

Regionally, Ukip did best in the Midlands where they polled nearly 31 percent of the vote, more than any other party. Labour were narrowly behind them in that region, with the Conservatives trailing in third place.

And in London, it was Labour who was pushed into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip. The working class boroughs of London have traditionally been Labour strongholds, and the party currently holds the majority of London’s 76 constituencies, with 38 Labour MPs calling London ‘home’. There are also 28 Conservative MPs in the city and seven Liberal Democrats. Ukip will be hoping for a win in particular­­ in the currently Labour held constituency of Dagenham and Rainham in the east of London; they are also challenging the outspoken Labour Member of Parliament Margaret Hodge in the neighbouring constituency of Barking.

The party was a full 15 points ahead of the Conservatives in Wales, so may we well placed to challenge Labour Parliamentarians in so-called ‘safe seats’, who up until now have had no serious opposition.

The poll will be welcome news ahead of the by-election in Clacton, due to take place on the 9th October between Conservative defector Douglas Carswell and Conservative challenger Giles Watling, a former soap star. The other parties will also be entering candidates but are not expected to commit much by way of resources to the election battle.

Douglas Carswell is a very popular MP locally, and is well liked by many conservative thinkers and activists in both parties. If he wins re-election on the 9th he will be Ukip’s first elected Member of Parliament in Westminster.

Lab 33% (-2)
Con 30% (-1)
Ukip 23% (+4)
LDem 8% (=)
Greens 3% (=)

Interesting, probably an all time high for them if my memory is correct... even better as Survation was proven as one of the more accurate pollsters in the Scottish referendum campaign, where as YouGov (which weights Ukip down) was one of worst.

Looking at polling recently too, I have noticed the Greens have been hitting from 2% to 6% over the course of the summer, if they score roughly around 3% they could win around a million votes which is what Ukip won in 2010.... a lot of people in Labour have been asking for a 'Ukip of the left' and it looks like they might have one in the making.

Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep · 1h

Latest Survation national poll has UKIP on 23, just ten points off Lab on 33 and seven off Cons on 30. Huge potential for us now.

Clacton and the Heywood and Middleton by-elections on the 9th of October should be interesting.

Thoughts?

[scottish]

Don't get your hopes up Danny boy.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Don't get your hopes up Danny boy.

Caution and sceptical, as always.

Here's the Scottish polling from Survation btw for the next Holyrood election, should've posted....

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 3h

SNP take 16% lead in post-IndyRef 2016 Holyrood election (const) from Survation has %:-

SNP 49.2
LAB 32.7
CON 13.4
LD 3.4
UKIP 0.2
GRN 0.6

An all-time high for the SNP in Scotland which would give them a clear majority.

I would imagine a much higher turnout in Scotland in 2015 and 2016 following from the referendum too.

[scottish]

I think Green Party will shoot up quite a bit.

Post-IndyRef a lot of people have moved to them.

- - - Updated - - -

Think it's worth stating though

The latest YouGov poll puts SNP 40% Lab 32% Cons 15% Lib Dem 4% (so SNP 8% lead) is based on 3,237 sample size

Where as this one is only 871.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I think Green Party will shoot up quite a bit.

Post-IndyRef a lot of people have moved to them.

- - - Updated - - -

Think it's worth stating though

The latest YouGov poll puts SNP 40% Lab 32% Cons 15% Lib Dem 4% (so SNP 8% lead) is based on 3,237 sample size

Where as this one is only 871.

Is that for Holyrood or Westminister in regards to Scotland?

If the nationalist vote were applied to Westminister, I would imagine a lot of Labour MPs (safe) would be knocked out.

[scottish]

Holyrood.


Latest YouGov poll for The UK GE is;

36% Labour, 31% Cons, 16% UKIP, 7% Lib Dem, Others 10% (based on 21,26) and was conducted 19th sept.

[Chippiewill]

This poll is as meaningful as that yougov poll until we get another to back it up.

[A4R0N]

Green's will rise in Scotland no doubt about it