Conservatives in crisis as they are overtaken by UKIP in crucial by-election

[-:Undertaker:-]

Conservatives in crisis as UKIP push Tories into THIRD place as Liberal Democrats hold onto Eastleigh in dramatic by-election

- Turnout was 53% and seat was held with majority of 1,771
- 19% swing from Liberal Democrats to UKIP
- Labour vote increases by 0.2%
- By-election comes after the Hampshire seat was vacated by Chris Huhne
- Strong UKIP showing pushed Conservatives into humiliating third place
- Last time a prime minister's party took a seat in a by-election was in 1982

A traditional two-way marginal turned into a three-way marginal with UKIPs surge

David Cameron is facing fresh Tory infighting today as a UKIP surge enabled the scandal-hit Liberal Democrats to cling on in the most crucial by-election battle for 30 years.

The Liberal Democrats have held the south coast seat of Eastleigh seat vacated by Chris Huhne - despite an unprecedented period of bad publicity over the Lord Rennard scandal and record lows in national opinion polls.

When the result was declared at 2.20am, the Lib Dems had won with a majority of 1,771 votes. Turnout in the by-election was 52.8 per cent, a high figure for a mid-term poll.

Set for the win: Lib Dem sources declared in the early hours that they believed they had held the seat of Eastleigh vacated by Chris Huhne with a win for Mike Thornton (pictured this morning with his wife Peta)

UKIP was celebrating its best ever by-election result and said it had pushed the Tories – who have named Eastleigh as one of 40 seats they must win to secure an overall majority in 2015 – into a humiliating third place.

The pro-independence party’s leader Nigel Farage declared: 'We are very sure we have come second. If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote, we'd have won.’

The Conservatives threw everything at the campaign, with Mr Cameron making two personal visits to the constituency and activists even distributing leaflets featuring its candidate Maria Hutchings against a background in UKIP’s purple and yellow colours.

Mr Cameron’s former leadership rival David Davis said this week that while few expected a Tory victory – the last time a prime minister’s party took a seat in a by-election was in 1982, at the height of Margaret Thatcher’s Falklands popularity – a third place finish would prompt a ‘crisis’.

Mr Farage will now face questions about why he ducked the contest himself – instead fielding a little-known Surrey councillor – amid suggestions UKIP could have its first elected MP had he taken part as by far its best known figure.

The Eastleigh contest, triggered by the resignation of former Lib Dem Cabinet minister Mr Huhne, who pleaded guilty to perverting the course of justice, marked the first time in modern political history that two governing parties have gone head to head.

Having fun: Howling Laud Hope was the Eastleigh candidate for the Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party

It was seen as a dry run for the 2015 election campaign, when the Tories hope to take up to 20 seats from their Lib Dem coalition partners in order to secure a Commons majority.

The Prime Minister had hoped his pledge earlier this year of an in/out referendum on Britain’s future in Europe would help to neutralise the UKIP threat in the contest.

Yesterday he used his Twitter account to make a last-ditch appeal for support in the by-election, insisting that the Tories have the 'the right policies on welfare, immigration and the deficit'.

The result also leaves Ed Miliband facing difficult questions. In a seat where it was in a solid second place in the mid-1990s, polling at almost 30 per cent, Labour finished in a poor fourth place, expecting to poll only just in double figures.

The party's candidate, comedian John O'Farrell, was plagued by questions about his books which have included jokes about the IRA attempt to kill Margaret Thatcher and his wish for Britain to be defeated in the Falklands War.

Labour’s campaign had so little traction that officials said they would regard a vote share of more than ten per cent as a success.

Apparently UKIP won the most votes on the night, but the Liberal Democrats just clinched it with the earlier postal votes from the last two weeks. It's UKIPs best result ever in a parliamentary seat and they've gone from 3% to 28% in the space of two/three years.

In terms of the wider consquences, i'd simply echo what David Davies had said. It's a massive blow to the Conservative Party, as for the Tories to hope to secure a majority in 2015 Eastleigh is a seat they need to win - what will worry backbenchers will be not only can they not win against a deflated Liberal Democrat party on its lowest national poll ratings ever, but it's now got UKIP overtaking it in a seat that isn't even a UKIP stronghold.

I've said it before and i'll say it again, barring exceptional circumstances the Conservative Party is finished.

If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote, we'd have won.

Thoughts?

[FlyingJesus]

Bit of a ridiculous statement since it wasn't "their" vote to split - if anything, UKIP split the Conservative vote

[-:Undertaker:-]

I'd just add that I read somewhere tonight that if UKIP had a swing of 24% like this nationally, it'd pick up over 400 seats.

Bit of a ridiculous statement since it wasn't "their" vote to split - if anything, UKIP split the Conservative vote

It's silly to say anybody split the vote, because nobody owns a chunk of the vote. But constantly we in UKIP had it thrown at us (and still we do, just look at the angry Tory boys on Twitter) so it's time to throw it back at them and make them look stupid. A tongue in cheek wind up, so to speak.

Besides, whats ironic is that if you examine the UKIP vote tonight it's actually coming more or less equally from the Tories, Liberal Democrats, Labour and (here's the best news) there's been a huge turnout of people who usually wouldn't vote who have decided to back the party in Eastleigh.

[Kardan]

I must say I was shocked to see UKIP do so well, but we won't know until the general election whether this was just a very good result or if it reflects the views of the country as a whole. Slightly annoying to see that Farage complained about losing because of the conservatives rather than celebrating the fact that they've gone up by 24%. I don't expect that to happen all over the country at the next general election and gain 400 seats, that's a bit mad. But they will finally get some seats. I would agree that the conservatives are in trouble now though...

[-:Undertaker:-]

@Kardan;

He means it partly tongue in cheek as that was the same stick the Conservatives were planning to beat us over the head with had UKIP come just behind the Conservatives - I saw the recording when he said it on BBC This Week and I remember it being a poking-fun-at-you tone as Grant Shapps was sitting on the sofa, a man who has been claiming throughout this election campaign that the UKIP vote somehow 'belongs' to his party.

The next test will be the English local elections this May, last time UKIP polled 14% in the seats in which they stood. Interesting times ahead..

[Swearwolf]

brilliant

[Chippiewill]

but it's now got UKIP overtaking it in a seat that isn't even a UKIP stronghold.

Since when did UKIP have a stronghold?

[AgnesIO]

It would be interesting to see how UKIP do in an election where the leaders are the Conservatives or Labour. I mean, this is a Liberal Democrat "strong hold".

I stand by what I say, the moment Farage gets in to any position of power, I will leave the country.

[GommeInc]

Part of me thinks UKIP could of won if the Conservatives did not deploy dirty tactics. The leaflets the Conservative candidate was handing out looked suspiciously like UKIP documentation, by using purple and yellow as the colours, and having very little information with regards to the party of the candidate. Also, the lady was being supported by a UKIP MEP.

[AgnesIO]

Part of me thinks UKIP could of won if the Conservatives did not deploy dirty tactics. The leaflets the Conservative candidate was handing out looked suspiciously like UKIP documentation, by using purple and yellow as the colours, and having very little information with regards to the party of the candidate. Also, the lady was being supported by a UKIP MEP.

Surely that would boost UKIP votes, as UKIP would be advertised more?