UKIP surge to 22% ahead of Thursdays Local Elections as Tory smear campaign backfire

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-30/u...t-comres-poll/

UKIP surge to 22% for Local Elections

A ComRes Poll for The Coalition for Marriage released on Tuesday night suggested that UKIP could win a staggering 22% of the vote. Photo: Chris Ison/PA Wire/Press Association Images

Here’s what we think we do know about Thursday’s local elections.

- The Conservatives will win the most seats; this is their territory
- The Conservative share of the seats will still drop most dramatically; the last time these were contested in the dog days of Gordon Brown’s premiership the Tories trounced Labour

Here’s what we know we don’t know.

- How well UKIP will do
- Well there’s a lot we don’t know yet but number one is most important

So how well might they do?

A ComRes Poll for The Coalition for Marriage released on Tuesday night suggested that UKIP could win a staggering 22% of the vote. The same poll put the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 24% and the Lib Dems on 12%.

David Cameron speaks to workers at the Morrisons Distribution Centre in Bridgewater, Somerset, on the local election campaign trail. Credit: Tim Ireland/PA Wire

Of course this is just one poll, but if UKIP do well at all they could seriously increase the number of seats the Conservatives lose.

As our Election Analyst Colin Rallings has said, the Tories are in line to lose more than 300 seats.

ComRes Poll results:

- Conservatives 31%
- Labour on 24%
- UKIP 22%
- Lib Dems 12%.

More than 400 losses and David Cameron will have had a very bad night.

There was a time when it was thought that might have threatened his leadership, although there seems to be less of that kind of talk around now.

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg (right) and Labour Leader Ed Miliband Credit: Olivia Harris/PA Wire

This is not to say UKIP will actually win a lot of seats.

Their evenly spread support may just mean they contribute to Tory losses rather than making very large gains in their own right.

Ed Miliband and his wife Justine meet pupils as they visit Justine's old school, West Bridgford School in Nottingham on the campaign trail. Credit: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

But a good showing for them would mark another step on the road towards UKIP becoming a new force in British politics, suggesting the next General Election will be fought not between three main parties but between four.

Now before anybody says it, it doesn't matter that the poll was commissioned by Coalition for Marriage (C4M) or anything like that. It's like the polls below i've posted are commissioned by The Sun or the Mail - thats just to say who ordered the poll to be carried out. Interesting results anyway, and certainly will mean UKIP will pick up seats (despite what the article says) if they manage to achieve that amount on polling day.

The latest YouGov for General Election voting intention is...

39% Labour
30% Conservatives
14% UKIP (all time high with YouGov)
11% Liberal Democrats

The latest Survation for General Election voting intention is...

36% Labour
29% Conservatives
16% UKIP
12% Liberal Democrats

But interesting how the smear campaign by the Tories has blown up in their faces. Interestingly enough i've heard that the same was done in Canada in the early 1990s to the then-Reform Party by the main two parties at the time ... and Reform went on to replace the Progressive Conservative Party and now runs Canada today. Interesting times ahead of Thursday.

Considering placing a bet or two ahead of Thursday, on a night out that night so would be good to come home to double good news.

Thoughts?

[Kardan]

I must say, I would be very surprised if they got to within 2% of Labour, but I guess time will only tell Nevertheless, I'd personally still consider it to be impressive that they're now the 3rd party...

[FlyingJesus]

Who actually gets asked to participate in these polls because there seem to be a hell of a lot of them through the year and I've never seen any invitations - my guess is that it's just readers and supporters of whichever publication sets it and probably a very small proportion of those even. Will be good to be rid of the Lib Dems at least whatever happens

[Calum0812]

Interesting to see such increasing support. Lets see what happens....

[-:Undertaker:-]

Who actually gets asked to participate in these polls because there seem to be a hell of a lot of them through the year and I've never seen any invitations - my guess is that it's just readers and supporters of whichever publication sets it and probably a very small proportion of those even. Will be good to be rid of the Lib Dems at least whatever happens

Random selections, again when it has 'Guardian' or 'Mail' at the front it doesn't mean anything. Sometimes it can be affected if you look at the questions asked before Voting Intention, ie say a poll commissioned asked ten questions on the EU and then asked who you'd vote for - something like that would be likely to give UKIP a small bounce but things like that are only ever slight and its pointed out if any methods/qustions have been asked.

They're pretty accurate (this poll for example was a phone poll I think and was only taken in areas who are voting on Thursday) but they can get it very very wrong, there's the famous case of the 1992 General Election where BBC exit polls predicted Kinnock winning and Major won a fair sized majority.

[Adam]

Shows how many people are pissed off with the current government. Protest votes are becoming a threat.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I can't believe what i'm seeing. Just now the Telegraph has released two stories..

Cameron suggests bringing forward referendum on EU membership - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...fore-2015.html

Cameron suggests ending ring fencing of the foreign aid budget - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...-suggests.html

Put two and two together as to why he's suddenly coming up with these suggestions. It's not hard.

Trouble is, nobody believes him anymore.

[Chippiewill]

Who actually gets asked to participate in these polls because there seem to be a hell of a lot of them through the year and I've never seen any invitations - my guess is that it's just readers and supporters of whichever publication sets it and probably a very small proportion of those even. Will be good to be rid of the Lib Dems at least whatever happens

Usually it's phone polling, however no matter what you do there'll be a statistical bias. Even worse if you intend there to be one. An example being that most people sat at home all day and therefore more likely to pick up the phone for polling tend to be older. A demographic bias pretty quickly leads us towards a result bias.

[GommeInc]

Usually it's phone polling, however no matter what you do there'll be a statistical bias. Even worse if you intend there to be one. An example being that most people sat at home all day and therefore more likely to pick up the phone for polling tend to be older. A demographic bias pretty quickly leads us towards a result bias.

Universities have been known to do polls, too. That also creates interesting results which are also biased towards certain thoughts and ideals. That said, I'm not sure what the general student thoughts are now on Government, it used to be a clear Lib Dem answer but now it seemed skewered :/

[-:Undertaker:-]

Usually it's phone polling, however no matter what you do there'll be a statistical bias. Even worse if you intend there to be one. An example being that most people sat at home all day and therefore more likely to pick up the phone for polling tend to be older. A demographic bias pretty quickly leads us towards a result bias.

Thats why polls are weighted, to fix errors like that.