Tonight's polling bonanza: Poll finds UKIP 'most favourable' British political party

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1076/su...tical-poll.htm

Polling finds UKIP as the most favoured party in Britain whilst most UKIP supporters identify themselves as working class

The UK Independence Party is the most favourably regarded of all the main parties, according to a ComRes opinion poll exclusive to tomorrow's Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror. Although 19 per cent of voters say they would vote for UKIP in a general election, 27 per cent said that they had a "favourable” view of the party – just ahead of the 26 per cent who are favourable to the Labour Party, 25 per cent to the Conservative Party and 14 per cent to the Liberal Democrats.

Voting intention:

Con 30% +1
Lab 35% -1
LibDem 8% ±0
UKIP 19% +1
OtheR 8% -1

Change since last month's ComRes online poll. This would mean a Labour majority of 62 seats.

But the parties are ranked differently when respondents are asked: "Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political leaders and parties."

Favourable: parties

UKIP 27%
Labour 26% -2 since June 2013
Con 25% +2
LibDem 14%

Favourable: leaders

David Cameron 27% +4
Nigel Farage 22%
Ed Miliband 18% -2
Nick Clegg 13%

(The favourable / unfavourable question was not asked about UKIP or the Lib Dems, and their leaders, in June 2013.) Although the differences between the top three parties are within the margin of error, that UKIP are this close will still be highly troubling for both Labour and the Conservatives.

UKIP is also the party regarded least unfavourably: 38% have an "unfavourable view" of it, compared with 45% for Labour, 49% for the Lib Dems and 50% for the Conservatives. The "unfavourable" figures are similar for the party leaders, although again David Cameron is better regarded than his party: 39% Nigel Farage, 48% David Cameron, 49% Ed Miliband and 52% Nick Clegg.

Breakdown of party polling

Headline polls out tonight

General Election 2015 voting intentions for Opinium/Observer Polling:

LAB 36%
CON 30%
UKIP 17%
LDEM 8%

General Election 2015 voting intentions for ComRes/Independent on Sunday Polling:

LAB 35%
CON 30%
UKIP 19%
LDEM 8%

A lot of data there to work through, I found it interesting though. Matthew Goodwin (Politics Professor at the University of Nottingham) pointed this out in regards to the 'how supporters of each party identify themselves' which I think is true........

Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 11h

Those who think #Ukip & @Nigel_Farage lead an army of middle-class Tories should take a look at this chart ->

Apparently there's rumoured to be a European Elections voting intentions poll out tonight too but I haven't seen yet. I'll post if it's interesting/even exists.

Two things stick out for me though in this polling. The first is that having strong opinions as a political party don't harm a party and indeed can be seen as a good thing (see the favourable/unfavourable ratings) and secondly that Ed Miliband should be very worried that a party is emerging in British politics that represents those who identify as 'working class' ... which is a portion of the electorate that Labour has traditionally held strong over. Thirdly, though expected, UKIP have a problem with the youth vote - although in many ways that works in their advantage as older people are far more likely to turn out and vote.

Thoughts?

[Chippiewill]

Ahh yes, the results of statistical over-testing.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Ahh yes, the results of statistical over-testing.

Yeah you keep saying that with every poll I post but the polls are almost always correct at election time AND within the margin of error of 1% to 3%. People commission and take notice of polls because they're generally accurate.

Choose to believe whatever you want though. I'd argue you go over to the Political Betting website run by Mike Smithson or UK Polling Report and argue the toss with them over there. The stats geeks over there would chew you up and spit you out. I just look at the polls vs the election data and they're fairly accurate.

[The Don]

I'll buy you a years worth of vip/donator if UKIP win the next election

[-:Undertaker:-]

I'll buy you a years worth of vip/donator if UKIP win the next election

The European Elections in May of this year? That's a brave bet on your part.

[The Don]

The European Elections in May of this year? That's a brave bet on your part.

Well I would buy you a decades worth if they won the general election

[GommeInc]

What are the chances of there being a majority at the next general election? I can't help but think we're going to have a multi-coloured coalition of Labour, Lib-Dems and the Conservatives, unless UKIP decide last minute to go with the Conservatives.

Either way, statistics mean nothing. The proof is in the actual election.

[Chippiewill]

AND within the margin of error of 1% to 3%.

That's the margin of error on a single poll. Over-testing brings the margin of error way up.

[Mark]

What are the chances of there being a majority at the next general election? I can't help but think we're going to have a multi-coloured coalition of Labour, Lib-Dems and the Conservatives, unless UKIP decide last minute to go with the Conservatives.

Either way, statistics mean nothing. The proof is in the actual election.

I agree, it'd be bloody annoying to have another coalition but I can't see there being any other outcome