Polls: European Elections, Westminster Elections & Scottish Independence

[-:Undertaker:-]

WESTMINSTER VOTING INTENTIONS

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...?commentpage=3

Ukip drains support from rivals, with gains in latest Observer/Opinium poll

Ukip's score of 20% suggests voters have not been deterred by gaffes or claims some of its members are racists

Ukip leader Nigel Farage during a European election public rally this week in London.

Ukip has maintained its recent surge and now commands 20% of the national vote, according to the latest Observer/Opinium poll.

Nigel Farage's party is now just nine points behind the Conservatives with less than a fortnight to go before council and European elections.

Labour, on 33% (-1 point compared to a fortnight ago), has stretched its lead to four points lead over the Tories (who are down three points). Low scores for both the main parties suggest Ukip (up two points) is draining votes from the two biggest established parties. The Lib Dems are up two points on 9%.

Ukip's score of 20% is its highest since last summer's Opinium record of 21% and suggests voters have not been deterred in large numbers by a series of gaffes and claims that some of its members are racists.

Opinium also asked a series of questions about voters engagement with and knowledge of the EU. Only around one in 10 (11%) said they were confident they could name one of their regional MEPs, compared with 52% who believed they could name their local MP and 31% who could name one of their councillors.

If voters' ability to name their MEPs was poor, engagement with their EU representatives is even lower. Just 8% of UK voters have ever contacted one of the MEPs, while 79% have never even considered approaching one of their MEPs.

Some 27% of voters correctly named José Manuel Barroso as president of the European Commission, and 23% correctly identified Herman Van Rompuy as president of the European Council. Almost one in five (19%) thought, however, that Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, was president of the European Commission.

Views on the importance of the European parliament were mixed: 43% said it was important to the way the UK is governed, while 37% said it was not.

Voters were also asked about their view on coalition government after four years of joint Tory/Lib Dem rule.

There was strong single-party government support, with 55% saying it is better for Britain, compared with 15% who prefer a coalition.

In the event of no single party winning a majority, however, only 18% of voters said they thought the largest party should form a minority government. Some 35% thought a coalition would be better while 30% believed another election should be held.

Ukip's score of 20% is its highest since last summer's Opinium record of 21% and suggests voters have not been deterred in large numbers by a series of gaffes and claims that some of its members are racists

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,997 UK adults from 7 to 9 May 2014. Results have been weighted to nationally weighted criteria.

The Survation poll for Westminster also has....

Labour 33%
Conservatives 28%
Ukip 20%
Liberal Democrats 10%

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS VOTING INTENTIONS

The latest European elections poll from Survation has....

Ukip 32% (+1)
Labour 28% (nc)
Conservatives 21% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+3)

Scottish Independence

A poll out by Progressive Scottish Opinion....

No 54%
Yes 34%

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In terms of the European Elections, I am reading that apparently the time for postal voting has now closed - and Mike Smithson of Political Betting reckons that around half of the Euro vote will have been done via postal votes. So half of the result is already in, which is silly really considering we've still got 11 days of campaigning to go and we're still waiting on Labour to say a single thing on the issue of Europe.

With the polling on Westminster elections, it's telling how the Labour lead has been whittled down over the past few weeks and that the Conservatives haven't gained it - instead it has gone to Ukip. Miliband and a lot of the Labour Party were counting on Ukip to disproportionatly effect the Tories yet it now appears they're beginning to eat into the Labour vote. Even worse for Labour, Farage is focusing the last week of the European Elections on the northern Labour vote with a new series of billboards regarding the cost of living crisis that Labour keep mentioning.

With the Scottish independence polling, a sigh of relief as the drift towards a 50/50 split seems to have stopped - for now. But remember, we've still got all summer to go until the September referendum and looking at the Quebec-Canada referendum, it literally could be very close with those wanting independence more likely to go out and vote on sheer motivation grounds.

Lastly, the Newark by-election is looking more and more exciting as Labour have essentially left the seat to a Tory-Ukip fight. If any polling is done in Newark - which I expect there will be, probably by Lord Ashcroft - it'll most likely be done either just before and after the European Elections on May 22nd or just afterwards.

Thoughts?

[Mark]

British politics is far more interesting than Scottish politics. Glad the gap between Yes and No has widened.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Two new polls out today for the European Elections:

Opinium for the Daily Mail

Ukip 28%
Labour 27%
Conservative 23%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Greens 5%
BNP 3%
SNP 3%
Plaid Cymru 1%

YouGov for Sky News

Ukip 31%
Labour 25%
Conservative 23%
Liberal Democrats 9%

And here's a swing graph to show a similar picture in some other northern European countries...

And a Lord Ashcroft Westminster 2015 voting intentions poll, first in a long time to have a Tory lead...

Conservative 34%
Labour 32%
Ukip 15%
Liberal Democrats 9%

British politics is far more interesting than Scottish politics. Glad the gap between Yes and No has widened.

Indeed, the SNP and Labour... what a nightmare.

[Mark]

Indeed, the SNP and Labour... what a nightmare.

Absolutely

[FlyingJesus]

These can't be right at all they're suggesting that there are still people out there who take Liberal Democrats seriously