David Cameron rules out taking part in TV Debates after Ofcom ruling

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30727083
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015...ction-debates/
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-...ebates-stance/

David Cameron rules out TV Debates

- States his reason is for the Green Party not being included.
- Nigel Farage calls David Cameron 'chicken' over having to face him.
- Comes in light of Ofcom ruling that Greens not a major party, with Ukip granted major status in Great Britain.

Commercial broadcasting regulator OFCOM has ruled the Green Party is not a major party and is therefore unlikely to be included in the leaders’ debates ahead of the next election. Broadcasters got together to propose a 4-3-2 strategy in which Miliband, Cameron, Clegg and Farage would debate each other, then Farage would drop out for the next one and Cameron would debate Miliband alone at the last.

As soon as the plan was announced Cameron reacted by asking for the Greens to be included in the four party leaders debate. Do not fool yourself into believing this was a sudden act of altruism, he had an important reason for doing so. A five man debate would be a complete mess, and would be so confused that no one could possibly win. Giving him the opportunity to ‘get Farage out the way’ in a debate that was so bad everyone would forget it quickly.

He would then be clear to take on Miliband and Clegg a week later (we assume). The writing is on the wall at this debate already: Clegg would be so tied to the government he would find it impossible to gain the same traction he did before the last election.

So we are left with the final two man debate between Cameron and Miliband. The debate itself absolutely plays into the Cameron narrative that the election is about which of these two should be Prime Minister. His polling says a sizeable number of UKIP voters will switch back to the Conservatives when faced with the perceived ‘risk’ of Miliband winning.

That is not to say every UKIP voter feels this way, and it also does not mean Cameron will win. But many UKIP/Tory defectors do feel that way and it would make life significantly easier for him. Not least because he has a proven track record of wiping the floor with Miliband, so the smart money would be on the Prime Minister winning that debate.

If that debate comes after a couple of messy earlier debates with no obvious winner it would set Cameron up for polling day. Which could be as little as one week later.

The problem for Cameron is that Clegg beat him last time by quite some margin. Farage convincingly beat the Liberal Democrat leader twice in the Europe debates earlier this . The UKIP leader effectively slayed the undisputed champion, implying that on a level playing field he would win a debate.

This is compounded by UKIP’s circumstances, as they have lots of elected politicians but have yet to take control of any major local authorities. This gives the party credibility but makes it very hard to criticise, which is why rivals revert to personal attacks on individuals rather than challenge the party’s record. In a debate we should assume this would make Farage virtually impossible to deal with.

Clegg was in a similar situation in the lead up to 2010, and despite holding a number of councils: it made him immune to being challenged by Cameron and Brown.

Unless Cameron can dilute Farage by putting up obstacles like additional leaders the first debate, he will grant UKIP yet another boost. He needs the whole exercise to be about Miliband versus Cameron but at this rate it’s much more likely to be yet another example of Farage humiliating the other three.

Without the Greens present, Farage will win debate one, and no one will care about the other two as a result. That could easily cost Cameron the election. So I predict the Conservatives will be encouraging their people to reply to the consultation about major parties to fight for the Greens. OFCOM may want to take their spirited correspondence with a pinch of salt!

It's simple: Go ahead with the debates but just have Cameron there as a cardboard cut out.

He's terrified of debating Farage and after trying to exclude Ukip from the debates now he's using the Green Party as an excuse to try and block the debates from taking place, funny really because it was only last year he was arguing that only the main three parties should be allowed to take part.

I hope they call his bluff, and i'm not even a fan of TV debates.

Thoughts?

[The Don]

Love how farage tries to make everything about ukip. The Greens should be on there if the lib dems and ukip are.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Love how farage tries to make everything about ukip. The Greens should be on there if the lib dems and ukip are.

It is pretty obvious it is about Farage, he just doesn't want to face him because whatever Nick Clegg argues he'll lose (because he's so unpopular) and Ed Miliband is hopeless, so in a three-way debate Cameron would likely emerge as the victor: but with Farage there he'll likely be eaten up like Clegg was. He's obviously calculating that putting the Greens into the debate will hurt Labour by proportion even though a year ago he was opposed to 3 leader+ debates.

I actually wouldn't mind the Greens taking part myself, just it is absurd to pretend if Ukip and the Liberals are there then the Greens have the same case. They don't.

[The Don]

It is pretty obvious it is about Farage, he just doesn't want to face him because whatever Nick Clegg argues he'll lose (because he's so unpopular) and Ed Miliband is hopeless, so in a three-way debate Cameron would likely emerge as the victor: but with Farage there he'll likely be eaten up like Clegg was. He's obviously calculating that putting the Greens into the debate will hurt Labour by proportion even though a year ago he was opposed to 3 leader+ debates.

I actually wouldn't mind the Greens taking part myself, just it is absurd to pretend if Ukip and the Liberals are there then the Greens have the same case. They don't.

He's saying he'll do it if the greens are included so it clearly isn't anything to do with UKIP otherwise he would have requested something unreasonable and something which was unlikely to happen (not something which is easy to grant). Just UKIP trying to grab more headlines by making things relevant to them.

The greens are polling higher than the lib dems iircc so why isn't it the same case?

[-:Undertaker:-]

He's saying he'll do it if the greens are included so it clearly isn't anything to do with UKIP otherwise he would have requested something unreasonable and something which was unlikely to happen (not something which is easy to grant). Just UKIP trying to grab more headlines by making things relevant to them.

Why would he suddenly argue for the Greens to be included when only a year ago he was arguing for it to be just applicable for 'parties with a chance of forming the next government' (when back then he was trying to exclude Farage)? That's quite a sudden turnaround to now wanting to include the Green Party.

He's terrified, it was only within the recent year he could bring himself to say the words Farage or Ukip on television.

The greens are polling higher than the lib dems iircc so why isn't it the same case?

Ofcome are using the average of 2014 polling (the Green surge is only very recent over the Autumn) and even then I don't think the Greens have overtaken the yellows in terms of the rolling recent average. Secondly, it is also taken into account with other factors (regional support across England, Local Council results, other representation like MEPs) and of course MPs.

Not saying I agree with Ofcom but that is the criteria they set.

- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion..._election#2015

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 1m1 minute ago

SNP response: "If David Cameron is arguing for the Greens to be included, he has no case against the SNP."

[The Don]

UKIP has only really become relevant enough for him to comment on them recently (past 12-24 months)

Perhaps you're right about him not wanting to debate Farage, you have made some good points. That doesn't change the fact that the Greens are just as entitled to be in the debate as the Lib Dems and UKIP.

[GommeInc]

They should just have all 5 parties as they all are different enough (by perception) to all have a reason to appear. The Greens are a more relevant party these days as are Ukip. The Liberal Democrats, albeit dropping in popularity are relevant to this day historically and the fact they are in power. The next general election is going to be huge so it only seems right to have these 5.