Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling confirms political sea change up north

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...l-reveals.html

SNP to wipe out Labour vote in Scotland, Lord Ashcroft poll reveals

Danny Alexander and Douglas Alexander will both no longer be MPs after General Election, according to bombshell poll by former Tory donor Lord Ashcroft

Some of Labour and the Liberal Democrats' most senior Scottish MPs will be dumped from office by the SNP according to a bombshell new poll revealing the full extent of Ed Miliband's woes north of the border.

Danny Alexander, the Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election campaign chief and shadow foreign secretary, will both no longer be MPs come May 8 according to the polls.

The SNP will take 15 of 16 crucial marginal seats in Scotland, constituency polling by former Tory donor Lord Ashcroft has found, providing a hammer blow to Mr Miliband’s hopes of entering Number 10.

Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader running in Gordon, is on course to comfortably win the seat while senior Scottish Labour figures including Margaret Curran, the shadow Scottish secretary, and Anas Sarwar, former deputy leader, are expected to go.

The long-awaited polling of more than 16,000 Scottish voters reveals that in Labour-held constituencies the overall swing to the SNP is a staggering 25.4 per cent.

If replicated on May 7, Labour would lose 35 of its 41 MPs and all but rob Mr Miliband of any chance of winning an overall majority.

Such dire predictions for Labour’s support base in Scotland from the most detailed polling to be held in the country since the independence referendum in September is likely to send shock waves through the party, coming just three months before election.

It reveals that despite electing a new Scottish Labour leader, Jim Murphy, in December there has been no obvious tightening after the surge in SNP support that followed the Yes camp coming within 400,000 votes of winning independence.

The findings will also raise fresh questions about the impact of having dozens of SNP MPs inside Westminster just months after battling with against parties to take Scotland out of the UK.

Mr Miliband will also face renewed pressure from Scottish Labour MPs to publicly rule out doing any post-election deal with the SNP to hammer home its message that voting for the Nationalists will increase the likelihood of a Tory Government.

This is HUGE.

A lot of people don't understand just what a huge sea change in politics this is regarding Scottish seats. Lord Ashcroft polled the Glasgow seats - and Glasgow is the second strongest Labour city in the UK next to my own Liverpool - and most of them are going to fall to the SNP if these polls are correct. We've had many sub samples for the Scottish regional average, but many thought these could be unreliable due to local constituency factors changing the way people vote but now with these constituency polls it's pretty much confirmed: Labour are facing being wiped out from their Scottish citadel after more than 50 years of absolute dominance there.

I was of the opinion Labour would win with a small majority at the next election but with the loss of their Scottish seats and the narrowing of national polls it's now likely that neither the Tories or Labour will be able to form a majority government: including in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The easy answer would have been that there would be another election called within months... but the constitutional wreckers have introduced the stupid Fixed-Term Parliament Act which makes the situation even more uncertain and complex.

Thoughts?