Barclays Bank: British exit from EU could turn UK into a 'safe haven'

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-Barclays.html

Brexit vote could turn UK into a 'safe haven' triggering EU disintegration, say Barclays

Britain's exit from EU would open a 'Pandora's Box' in Europe, a threat which has been underestimated by financial markets, warn analysts

Despite depreciating against the euro in the run up to a vote, the pound could soon become a 'safe haven' currency after Brexit

A British exit from the European Union could lead to the UK becoming a "safe haven" from a disintegrating Europe, Barclays has said. Analysis from the bank said a 'leave' vote would open a "Pandora's Box" in the crisis-hit continent, and could dissuade Scotland from breaking away from the relative safety of the UK.

Barclays said financial markets had failed to grasp the sheer "breadth" of the British vote, calling it one of "the most significant global risks of the year", and one which could lead to the collapse of the European project.

Investors have been selling off the pound in anticipation of an EU referendum, which could take place as early as the summer. Sterling has depreciated by 9pc against the single currency since November. But if Britain voted for an EU exit, the political and institutional reverberations on the continent would be far greater than any economic fall-out, said the bank, who compared the implications to that of a "Grexit".

A number of European countries would be caught in the grip of extremist left-wing and right-wing populist parties, pushing them towards leaving the EU, they said. "If politics in the EU turned for the worse, the UK may be seen as a safe haven from those risks, reversing the euro's exchange rate appreciation", said the report's authors.

"In that environment, Scottish voters could be even less inclined to leave the relative safety of the UK for an increasingly uncertain EU".

The warning echoes fears that Europe, rather than the UK, would suffer the worst consequences of a Brexit. The chief economist of Deutsche Bank said earlier this week that Brexit would be "devastating" for the continent and consign Europe to a "second rank" power.

Analysts highlighted the "emotionally charged" immigration debate as a "wildcard" which could see the UK leave the EU. Survey data shows concerns about immigration have surged to become the most important issue facing the EU, according to voters - elicpsing fears over economy, terrorism, and unemployment since the start of 2015.

Should Brexit occur, this would embolden other member states who are struggling to control immigration and unleash a fresh wave of turmoil in the EU, said Barclays.

Barclays are correct. I have always said we, Britain, have nothing to fear from leaving it is the EU who should fear us leaving because it'll start a domino effect.

The tone of the article attempts of course to portray this as Britain's fault for making it all worse, but of course we didn't create the disasterous Eurozone nor did we create the disaster that is Schengen which is now falling apart before our own eyes. In addition to this the EU is refusing to give us any meaningful reforms despite Britain being one of the top contributors to the entire thing. It's taking us for a ride.

If British exit helps other countries like Greece exit who have suffered hell because of the EU then it is yet another reason to vote to Leave.

Thoughts?