Stoke & Copeland by-elections

[-:Undertaker:-]

Two by-elections are being held today.

The first is in Stoke, a city located in Staffordshire. The seat has been a Labour held safe seat since before the 1950s. The seat is heavily working class, with lines of Victorian terraces and has historically relied on industries such as the potteries for employment. In the 2016 EU referendum, Stoke voted 70% for Leave and 30% for Remain.

The second is Copeland, a county constituency located in Cumberland. The seat has been held by Labour since 1924 when the last Conservative was elected. The seat is working class, and has strong nuclear links with the famous Sellafield nuclear power plant being located there. In the 2016 EU referendum, Copeland voted 62% for Leave and 38% for Remain.

Here's a small background piece by the Guardian -

If they were cars, the Labour party would be a clapped-out old banger on bricks, the Tories would be a Rolls-Royce “mowing down the poor”, and Ukip would be a St George’s Cross-adorned tank “fighting for the people”. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, were likened to a bicycle.

This is according to a group of 10 Stoke Central residents who voted Labour in the 2015 general election and gathered in a hotel in the constituency to take part in a focus group organised by BritainThinks for the Guardian.

The participants were aged between 35 and 55, white and, broadly speaking, from what pollsters refer to as social grades C1 and C2, meaning lower middle class and skilled working class. They are exactly the type of traditional Labour voters Ukip is trying to woo.

Of the 10 people invited to share their thoughts, three were clear that they would vote Ukip in Thursday’s byelection. Two said they would vote for Labour reluctantly (“because I always have done”), and only one said they would do so with enthusiasm. The remaining four were undecided, with one saying they were probably more likely to vote Labour than Ukip.

And the results from the General Election in 2015 -






Polls close at 10pm GMT tonight.

Thoughts?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Historic win for the Conservatives tonight as Copeland elects first Tory MP since 1935.

Copeland, result:
CON: 44.3% (+8.5)
LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)
LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)
UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)
IND: 2.6% (+2.6)
GRN: 1.7% (-1.3)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017

Welcome to Trudy Harrison: Copeland’s first Conservative MP since 1935! pic.twitter.com/nvkkeVK5lW

— Conservatives (@Conservatives) February 24, 2017

The last MP who represented #Copeland who wasn't a member of the Labour party was Wililiam Nunn (a Conservative). He was born in 1879.

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) February 24, 2017

A bad night for Ukip in Stoke as leader Paul Nuttall MEP fails to become an MP.

Stoke on Trent Central, result:
LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)
UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)
CON: 24.3% (+1.8)
LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)
GRN: 1.4% (-2.2)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017