US Presidential Election, 2024 - [VOTE]

[-:Undertaker:-]

US Presidential Election, 2024

President Donald J Trump will face off against Vice President Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden

Americans will go to the polls on the 5th November 2024 to elect the 47th President of the United States of America. The main swing states that will decide the election are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Initially, Trump was leading Biden in the polling until Biden dropped out of the race and was replaced by Harris. Harris then saw a surge in support, leading Trump. As of today (mid-October) both candidates are more or less tied statistically both in nationwide polling and swing state polling.

You can vote in the HabboxForum poll to show your preference - your vote is confidential and anonymous.

[Hannah]

I really hope Trump doesn't get in again, but I fear he might.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Momentum does seem to be swinging towards former President Trump in the polling.

He also went viral working a shift in McDonalds.

#NEW Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update

🔴 Trump: 53.1%
🔵 Harris: 46.6%

“There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris.” pic.twitter.com/bWaPnUZeHL

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 20, 2024

pic.twitter.com/YkLtEaC3OI

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 21, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

Interesting to note that with what we Britons would call postal votes, 21 million Americans have already voted.

More rumours of the Democrats becoming a bit jittery with the recent polling trend. On these margins though, it's still a tossup.

#NEW NATIONAL poll - favorable/unfavorable rating

🔴 Trump: 50%-48% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 48%-50% (-2)

*First election Trump has entered with a positive favorability rating

Gallup | 10/22 pic.twitter.com/AxAmwWgrcA

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 22, 2024

News - The Harris campaign is concerned about Michigan and North Carolina - NBC

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 22, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

12 Days To Go...

For fellow election nerds out there who are starting to gain an interest in the US Presidential Elections, there's a wonderful free website called https://www.270towin.com/ where you can build a map of the race to see who reaches 270 first. Quite interesting to input different polls/trends that you come across and see what comes up, and will give you an idea closer to election night of what to look for with the results.

I generally try to avoid pundits who have an impartial view, or to say myself who will win, because there's never any point in fooling yourself only to be disappointed or made to look a fool - something me and Sir David Davis MP have in common among many things. However, of the early polling data so far it is looking quite good for the Republicans - the problem the Democrats have is similar to Labour in Britain, that their vote piles up in the likes of New York and California but then falls short in the towns and rural areas.

Anyway, I try not to pick out partisan takes/polls but here's some more interesting things.

The thing to remember about polls like this, and the overall national average. Harris needs a buffer of about +3% to have any confidence of victory. https://t.co/We63WkUA4O

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) October 23, 2024

One thing to understand about the "Democratic Panic". At this stage of the race it isn't poll driven. It's data driven. The Harris campaign now have hard numbers based on early voting. And those numbers are clearly filtering out into the wider Democratic Party. And people aren't… https://t.co/LI9LIIYIJj

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) October 24, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

The Donald just did a 3-hour interview with Joe Rogan, with 36 million views in three days. There's calls for Harris to do the same to gain some momentum back to her campaign, but as Elon Musk points out below - couldn't see that going well without a scripted set of questions and answers.

Yup, it’d be a 3 hr train wreck https://t.co/C1femAwZbr

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 27, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

5 Days to go...

Final polls from the most accurate pollsters in the 2020 Presidential election.

Also, The Donald dressed in a bin man's uniform after President Biden labelled his supporters as trash.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Two days to go...

Very contradictory polling coming out lately, and you have to be careful as a lot of American polling can have a political bias.

These are the two interesting ones tonight with two days to go. Firstly you've got the reliable AtlasIntel poll across the swing states showing Trump sweeping the board there and thus winning the presidency, but just below you've got the respected Ann Seltzer poll from Iowa which is unexpectedly showing Harris ahead in the traditional Republican state - if that poll is true, that would suggest bad news elsewhere for the GOP.

So we're none the wiser lol. Is anybody else staying up to watch? I will if I'm not due to do anything (placement/job) the next day.

General Election Poll

🔴 Arizona - Trump +6
🔴 North Carolina - Trump +3
🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
🔴 Nevada - Trump +5
🔴 Pennsylvania - Trump +2
🔴 Michigan - Trump +2
🔴 Wisconsin - Trump +1

Atlasintel #A - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

#New General election poll - Iowa

🔵 Harris 47% (+3)
🔴 Trump 44%

2020 - 🔴 Trump +8

Ann Saltzer #A - 800 LV - 11/1

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 2, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

Just over a day to go...

Another slew of statewide polls, some final.

If you want something really interesting, check out https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ which at the right hand side if you scroll down you can see what the polls were this far out from the election in both 2016 and 2020. That to me is what if I were a betting man, I'd be putting money on.

#New General election poll

🔴 National - Trump +1

🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +2
🔴 North Carolina - Trump +2
🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +1
🟡 Michigan - Tie
🔴 Arizona - Trump +1
🔵 Minnesota - Harris +4

ActiVote - LV - 11/3

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

#New General Election @nytimes Poll

🔵 Nevada - Harris +3
🔵 Georgia - Harris +1
🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +3
🔵 North Carolina - Harris +2
🟡 Pennsylvania - Tie
🟡 Michigan - Tie
🔴 Arizona - Trump +4

Siena #A - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

General Election Poll

🔴 Ohio - Trump +9
🔴 Texas - Trump +7
🔴 Florida - Trump +5
🔴 Wisconsin - Trump +1
🔴 Georgia - Trump +2
🔴 North Carolina - Trump +2
🟡 Arizona - Tie
🟡 Pennsylvania - Tied
🔵 Michigan - Harris +1

Morning Consult #C - LV - 10/31

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

#New General election polls

🔴 Arizona - Trump +3
🔴 North Carolina - Trump +2
🔴 Pennsylvania - Trump +1
🔴 Wisconsin - Trump +1
🔴 Georgia - Trump +1
🟡 Michigan - Tie

Insider advantage #B - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 4, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

So today is election day in America.

Here are the statistics (a compilation of all the polls) from RealClearPolitics I think are what we need to know.

ON THIS DAY...

...in 2016 the national polls had Clinton ahead by +3.2%

...in 2020 the national polls had Biden ahead by +6.9%

...in 2024 the national polls have Trump ahead by +0.2%


In other news, Elon Musk has convinced Joe Rogan to endorse Donald Trump.

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And here are the final videos from the candidates.

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